The Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping bromance is now a thing of the past. It has been less than two years since the Chinese President strolled down the Sabarmati waterfront and then wrote an op-ed in The Hindu calling India a global partner in the drive towards an "Asian century". The events of the last few days have decisively put India into the anti-China camp, with commentators now calling for tough messages and some right-wingers even calling for a boycott of Chinese goods. Hindi-Chini bye bye.
A short recap: India had applied to be a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 48-member cartel that effectively regulates the global trade in nuclear fuel and technology. New Delhi had put much political effort behind its application, with Modi himself flying to several capitals to gather support. When it came down to it though, China first attempted to block any discussion of India's bid and later continued to insist India cannot be let into the club because it is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
After the NSG meeting in Seoul ended with a commitment to continue discussing India's membership application, China tried to play both tacks: One spokesperson insisted that India's application didn't even come up at the meeting – technically the discussion was on all non-NPT applicants – while another tried to insist that Beijing's NSG obstructionism would not affect bilateral ties with India.
Chinese chequers
New Delhi disagrees.
The Ministry of External Affairs statement in the aftermath of the meeting singled out "one country", without naming it, for raising procedural hurtles.
Then on Sunday, the ministry's spokesperson of the External Affairs Ministry on Sunday said India's bilateral ties were inextricably linked to its "interests".
"We will keep impressing upon China that mutual accommodation of interests, concerns and priorities is necessary to move forward bilateral ties."
— Vikas Swarup, MEA spokesperson
At home, the conversation has gone even further.
Ashok Malik, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and a political analyst known to be close to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, wrote a column saying China had behaved "not as an enlightened power but as a strategic small-timer, with the petty, perfidious and short-termist mindset of a Pyongyang dictator or a Rawalpindi general".
Boycott Beijing
Malik said that India is now "honour-bound" to send a tough message to China. On the internet, through Twitter and WhatsApp forwards, the right-wing constituency that supports the BJP decided that a slightly farcical call to boycott Chinese goods is the way to send this message.
This is not exactly going to be easy. China is India's largest trade partner although the reverse is not even remotely close to being true: India doesn't even figure in the top 10 of China's trade partners by total volume. China also has a massive trade surplus of more than $44 billion, out of total trade of $59 billion, during the April-January period of 2015-16.
The skewed nature of those figures might suggest that India may not have much to lose in a trade war, but it also shows how dependent the country is on Chinese goods. A large-scale boycott would have serious implications for many industries.
Not everyone thinks India will actually accomplish much by trying to isolate China diplomatically. Former diplomat MK Bhadrakumar wrote that the attempt to force Beijing into coming in board was an overestimation of India's diplomatic skills that displayed India's hubris.
Asian rivals
Manoj Joshi, a Distinguished Fellow at ORF, also points out that Beijing is not entitled to give India a seat at the table.
"Of all the Asian countries that have the potential to rival China in terms of geographical spread, military power and economy, India does," Joshi wrote. "China has no intention of aiding a rival’s rise, even if that rival is way behind it."
Mexico ensured that the NSG is on course to have another session, sometime later this year, specifically to discuss India's membership application. New Delhi has made it clear it intends to continue diplomatically pushing for its bid, even if that means an extended period of frosty relations with China – a phase that actually began before the recent NSG machinations.
In the short-term, this has not been a successful policy, with the NSG disappointment likely to hit hard and hurt Modi domestically. The question to ask now is: Can New Delhi convert short-term disappointment into long-term victory?
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