Recuperating from surgery in London, Pakistan's absentee prime minister keeps his country guessing

Recuperating from his recent heart surgery, the prime minister has reportedly started looking into the affairs of the government from his London Hyde Park residence. Cabinet ministers and some top bureaucrats have been summoned for briefings. But there is still no word on when he is expected back. He is apparently waiting for his doctor’s advice.

It has been some weeks since Nawaz Sharif left the country. There was no doubt about the urgency and seriousness of his ailment. But there is also a responsibility that comes with the high office of prime minister, which cannot be left unattended for a long period of time. It is quite common for Pakistani political parties to be remotely controlled by their leaders in self-exile. There is, however, hardly any precedence of a government being run from outside the country.

But everything is possible in this country under the Sharif rule. For the first time in the nation’s history, the prime minister gave his approval to the budget, addressing the cabinet meeting through video link. Instead of an official medical communiqué, it is mostly through his daughter’s Twitter account or the occasional statements made by some of his ministers that the nation learns about Nawaz Sharif’s state of health. A recent picture shows him strolling in Hyde Park with the first lady.

For sure, Sharif would not trust anyone other than old loyalists and close family members to run the day-to-day affairs of his government. Neither, however, has constitutional validity. The responsibility of the party has reportedly been assigned to his daughter Maryam, who is holding the fort at Prime Minister House. She is also believed to be involved in critical policy decisions.

Informal style

It appears more like dynastical rule than a democracy. This informal way of running the affairs of the state and government has added to the chaos that has become the hallmark of the third Sharif government. This has also generated discontent within the party. The disarray was reflected during the National Assembly budget session. It was, perhaps, the most lacklustre debate on the budget. Moreover, the absence of members from the treasury benches has often caused lack of quorum in the house.

His illness may have given him temporary relief but the prime minister’s problems are far from over.

This chaotic rule is most prominently reflected on the foreign policy front. The void is being filled by the military. Although the military has long been determining Pakistan’s foreign policy, the meeting on external affairs held at GHQ and participated in by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and the adviser to the prime minister on foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz besides senior foreign ministry officials, was unprecedented. The picture of the generals sitting across the table with the top civilian hierarchy at GHQ left nothing more to be guessed.

No doubt, the consultation between the civilian and the military leadership on important security and foreign policy matters is imperative. It was, however, the blatant symbolism of GHQ as the venue and release of the pictures of the meeting that raised many eyebrows.

Financial scandal

The prime minister’s surgery came in the midst of the Panama scandal involving his family. The opposition’s call for investigation into the source of the first family’s foreign assets presented the biggest challenge to the government that has just completed the third year of its tenure, the longest in Nawaz Sharif’s three terms in office.

As in the past, it has not been smooth sailing for the prime minister this time either; the government has been lurching from one crisis to another. Panamagate has certainly been the most serious. His illness may have given him temporary relief but Sharif’s problems are far from over. The government’s efforts to divide the united opposition and drag on negotiations on the terms of reference have failed to ease the pressure.

Despite differences on the mode of protest, the opposition appears united on the demand for a Panama investigation starting from the prime minister and his family. This is not acceptable to the rulers, resulting in a complete stalemate in the talks between the government and the opposition alliance. The government strategy is to prolong the talks. There is also a visible stridency in the tenor of the ministers and other Sharif loyalists on the accountability issue. They believe the pressure on the government on the Panama scandal has already lost momentum

These tactics, however, do not seem to be working. It may be true that there is no public outrage pulling people out on to the streets on the Panama scandal. But the government’s credibility has already been badly damaged and there is little hope of the issue withering away.

While the Pakistan People's Party and some other smaller opposition parties do not want a derailment of the political process, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf sees it as a huge opportunity to oust Sharif and force early elections. The plot has thickened with PTI’s plan to launch a countrywide anti-government movement and the return of Dr Tahirul Qadri to the fold. Many in government see the development as a part of a script, similar to the one that motivated the 2014 dharna.

Conspiracy theory

Whether or not there is any substance to this conspiracy theory, the situation is far more ominous this time than it was in 2014 when the government had barely completed its first year in office. The realignment of political forces is heavily tilted against the government. The tension with the military may have eased, but relations cannot be described as cordial. There are still many issues making the two power centres extremely uneasy. The long absence of the prime minister from the scene and the appalling state of governance has not helped bridge the divide.

Sharif will be coming back, though it is not sure when, to more challenging times. It may not yet be an endgame, but a lot will depend on how he deals with the opposition on the Panama scandal. The best option for him is to present himself and his family for an impartial investigation. That may, perhaps, never be conclusive given the complexities surrounding the issue.

Sharif may have crossed the three-year milestone that had previously eluded him in his last two terms mainly on account of his conflict with the generals. Now with less than two years to go, he may be looking forward to achieving another milestone by completing his full five-year term. For that, not only does he need to deal with an increasingly strident opposition, he also needs to keep a watch on the military breathing heavily down his back. He has already conceded much ground, mainly because of his own ineptitude – and there is very little margin for error now. Whether or not he will make it, only time will tell.