Everyone seems to be talking about the Bharatiya Janata Party in Kerala. Coverage of Monday's election has focused heavily on the chances for the lotus to bloom. And Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to make an unfortunate comparison with Somalia has only amplified the saffron chatter, albeit very little of it positive. But all the focus on the new kid on the block obscures the real choice yet again facing Keralites: The violence of the Communists or the corruption scandals of the Congress.
In the Communist corner, you have VS Achuthanandan: A 92-year-old stalwart of the Left who joined politics 78 years ago. He's accompanied by Pinarayi Vijayan, a septugenarian who set aside his differences with VS in service of the Left Democratic Front's cause during the campaign. Both are popular – Achuthanandan with the people, Vijayan with the party members. Both are also fully complicit in the encouragement of Leftist violence as a means of political expansion in the state.
The Congress candidate is current Chief Minister Oomen Chandy. Another 72-year-old, the truly impressive thing about Chandy is that his United Democratic Front alliance remains a serious contender in these elections, despite the corruption scandals that have rocked his government. The allegations in the solar scam go all the way to Chandy's own office, yet the chief minister has not only remained in the race, he also defied the Congress high command and enforced his writ when it came to distributing tickets.
Left vs Congress
Violent Left. Corrupt Congress. These are the choices Kerala's voters have had for decades now, and this year is no different.
Pre-poll surveys in the state mostly give the edge to the Communists, or suggest a photo-finish like the last election when the UDF only managed four seats more than the LDF. Despite all the chatter about the BJP, no poll expects the party and its allies to get more than five seats, and many suggest it may not even get one.
The real reason this election has revolved around the BJP so much, aside from the high-octane campaign scripted by party president Amit Shah, is because of its potential to swing votes in a tight contest.
Vote shares have always been very tight in Kerala, with only a few percentage points separating the leading alliances. The BJP is in prime position to alter some of this, as it seeks to cash in on its campaign to bring Ezhava and other Hindu voters over from the Left camp into the National Democratic Alliance Fold.
Wild card BJP
In some ways the BJP is a wild card. It should do well in Kerala, the state with the largest number of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh shakhas and a strong Hindu identity, but its lack of political identity and nascent organisational skills suggest the votes might be spread across the state. The BJP has tried to focus its efforts on Thiruvananthapuram and bits of North Kerala, but it is still hard to gauge how even a hefty state-wide vote share will convert into actual seats.
Chandy was happy to insist that the fight in the state was between the Congress and the BJP, prompting angry retorts from the Left that the Chief Minister was giving a leg up to "divisive forces" in the state.
Whether there was a leg up or not though, the Prime Minister managed to convert it into a setback by comparing Kerala to Somalia. He might have been referring to a specific human development indicator, and that too for a particular tribal community, but the reference was quickly taken as an insult to Kerala.
#PoMoneModi
The follow up hashtag, #PoMoneModi, asking the prime minister to get lost, quickly travelled through Facebook and Twitter and gave the BJP's opponents a strong last-minute issue to jump on. Just as the Bihari DNA issue played on the pride of voters in that state, #PoMoneModi coming so close to the elections might have dealt a serious blow to the saffron party's chances.
The BJP is still likely to get votes from across the state. The unknown factor is whether it can use the interim between this election and the next to turn those votes into ground-level organising and build a base that can actually convert into seats the next time around.
But a BJP government in Kerala is a distant dream for those hoping to break out of the UDF-LDF see-saw. For the next five years, the state is still going to be stuck with more of the same.
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