It seldom pays to interfere in another country’s domestic politics.
Take the cataclysmic downturn in the relations between India and Sri Lanka in the early 1980s that made the stuff of tragic history eventually within the decade. One main reason behind the trust deficit between the then leaderships of Indira Gandhi in India and of JR Jayewardene in Sri Lanka in the early 1980s, was that the Indian prime minister somehow insisted on keeping a line of communication directly to Sirimao Banadaranaike, the iconic opposition figure in Colombo, even after she became a political outcast following her indictment for abuse of power as prime minister and banned from public life in 1980.
All this is far from a moot point, as the echo of the footfalls of early ‘80s can be heard in the corridors of power today. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s situation vis-à-vis his Nepalese counterpart, KP Sharma Oli bears an uncanny resemblance to Indira Gandhi’s with JR.
The heart of the matter is that the sheer sight of the coalition led by the communists ruling Nepal has become an intolerable eyesore for the Hindu nationalists ruling India. How could the abode of Lord Shiva be under the jurisdiction of communists?
New Delhi advised Kathmandu to have the good sense to draft a constitution that proclaimed Nepal as “Hindu Rashtra”, but the irascible communists made a mockery of the Sangh Parivar and opted instead for a secular state.
New Delhi's agenda
The “China bogey” or the “Madhesi problem” are only the alibi – comparable to Jayewardene’s “pro-western tilt”. New Delhi’s real agenda was to smash up Jayewardene’s will power to steer an independent foreign policy – and that’s also the agenda vis-à-vis Oli.
The string of Nepali politicians – starting with the Madhesi leaders – visiting New Delhi in the recent months betrayed the Indian game plan to browbeat the elected government led by Oli, who is viewed by the Indian establishment as a “defiant” politician.
The newly-elected chief of the pro-India Nepali Congress Sher Bahadur Deuba made a pilgrimage to New Delhi last month and he was followed by Maoist leader Prachanda’s close aide, Krishna Bahadur Bahara.
No sooner than these two gentlemen returned to Kathmandu after their confabulations with the Indian establishment, a potent realignment in Nepalese politics began surfacing whereby Prachanda would replace Oli as the prime minister with the support of Deuba.
Of course, Prachanda’s overvaulting ambition to become prime minister a second time is his Achilles heel, since his sheer survival in office would depend on Deuba’s support – and, Deuba who as former interim prime minister piled up an impeccable record of being “pro-India”, would be the real power broker in Kathmandu.
The best part of the script would be that Oli’s overthrow would be an interim measure that undermined the unity among the Nepalese communist parties and discredited the Left as a whole, which would help Nepali Congress to recover lost ground and stage a comeback as the country’s ruling party.
Meanwhile, Oli made a capital error by keeping in Delhi as ambassador a prominent Nepali Congress politician who was appointed by the previous government, and is close to Deuba.
The scenario was almost perfect to push for “regime change” in Nepal. But then, even the best-laid plans in politics can go awry.
In the event, Prachanda failed to carry his party colleagues along in the project to overthrow Oli. The collective leadership of Maoists could foresee New Delhi’s resurgence as the kingmaker in Kathmandu if Oli were overthrown with the support of the Nepali Congress.
Ironically, Deuba too faces flak from his party colleagues who feel he made a fool of himself by offering to support Prachanda. They reprimanded him not to resort to such solo acts again without taking his party into confidence.
Suffice it to say, Oli survived. And he hit back by cementing his deal with the Maoists by conceding their longstanding demand on granting amnesty for their cadres who committed violent crimes during the decade-long insurgency (1996-2006).
Furthermore, Oli cancelled the week-long visit of President Bidhya Devi Bhandari to India starting May 9 and sacked the ambassador in New Delhi (whom he suspected to be the Indian establishment’s “fifth column”). Oli has generally let it be known that if push comes to shove, he might expel the Indian ambassador in Kathmandu.
Unsurprisingly, Modi brusquely called off his earlier plan to visit Lumbini on May 21. With Nepal remaining a secular country, with communists in power, and Oli in a defiant mood, Modi understood that this is not exactly an opportune moment to visit Nepal.
Triumphalist tone
However, the indication from the triumphalist tone of BJP general secretary Ram Madhav’s widely publicised tweet on Monday is that Plan B is in the pipeline. Madhav tweeted:
Madhav is certainly wired into the bowels of India’s foreign and security policy establishment and can hear the churnings there, which the rest of India cannot hope to hear.
His tweet suggests that the ruling circles do not accept that the last word has been spoken yet about the abortive coup attempt (“palace coup”) in Kathmandu, and, secondly, that they care two hoots if anti-India sentiments are cascading in Nepal.
The bottom line is, it is total war now – Modi versus Oli; New Delhi versus Kathmandu; Nepali communists versus Sangh Parviar; Nepali political class versus Indian spooks and diplomats – and, alas, India versus Nepal.
It is an unequal brawl. Oli cannot hope to unseat Modi. The Nepali politicians cannot match Indian diplomats and spooks in money power. To be sure, the Game of Thrones will be played out in Kathmandu only.
What a miserable way to celebrate Modi’s neighbourhood policies as he completes two years in office! Today, India has deeply troubled relationships with four out of its six neighbours – by the way, the remaining two are little Bhutan and one half of Bangladesh led by Sheikh Hasina.
Is there a way to mend the fractured India-Nepal relationship? Of course, there is. But then, it means going back to Modi’s own electoral pledge to “federalise” India’s neighbourhood diplomacy and apportion the due role to India’s border states to have a say in the crafting and execution of policies.
Bihar is going to pick up the debris if Nepal descends into the abyss of political instability – or, worse still, a Madhesi-led insurgency takes roots in that country (which, alas, some sections of the ruling circles have been openly threatening.)
That makes Chief Minister Nitish Kumar a stakeholder in Modi’s Nepal policies. Modi should invite Nitish Kumar to step in and help rebuild trust with Kathmandu, now that he himself has become a burnt-out case, wittingly or unwittingly.
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