In Bangladesh, two global jihadist networks are vying for dominance

A geopolitical intelligence and consulting firm has claimed that two global jihadist networks – Islamic State and al-Qaeda – are in a race in Bangladesh to establish their dominance.

The two groups are already struggling in Iraq and Syria (IS and al-Nusra) and Afghanistan for leadership of the global radical movement, and the race just found a new turf to wage war, according to a April 27 publication by Stratfor, an Austin-based organisation.

Islamic State has already highlighted its interest in Bangladesh for the country’s geological location, ethnographic identities of the majority population (Sunni), and demographics in its English magazine Dabiq’s latest edition.

Clear intentions

In a lengthy interview, the head of Islamic State operations in Bangladesh, one so-called Sheikh Abu Ibrahim al-Hanif, laid out the group’s goals for the country, not only sticking to only attacks and threats on atheist or secular bloggers in Bangladesh, rather to conduct large attacks to boost its credentials among local jihadists and promote the interests of the larger organisation.

“But it is not the methodology of the Khilafah’s soldiers to send more threats to the enemies of Allah,” he stated. “Rather, we let our actions do the talking. And our soldiers are presently sharpening their knives to slaughter the atheists, the mockers of the Prophet, and every other apostate in the region,” al-Hanif said in the interview.

The Stratfor report shows since the Islamic State’s first claim in Bangladesh on September 28 last year, just seven months ago, the IS has claimed responsibility for 15 attacks in the country so far. The attacks accompany AQIS’ (Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent) and its affiliates’ longstanding grip in Bangladesh, tallying 13 attacks in the country (11 killed and five wounded) since 2013.

According to Stratfor, the biggest impediments to the Islamic State’s expansion in Bangladesh will be al-Qaeda’s branch in the Indian subcontinent and its allies.

Stratfor claims al-Qaeda has a headstart in Bangladesh, especially in the capital, Dhaka, thanks to its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. In 2014, al-Zawahiri outlined the same plan al-Hanif is laying out now: to use Bangladesh as a point from which to expand into India and Myanmar.

Al-Qaeda also has a number of homegrown allies – Ansarullah Bangla Team or Ansar-al-Islam – with which the Islamic State will have to contend, Stratfor argues.

In denial

Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal has once again stated that the IS has no existence in Bangladesh. “There are a few local homegrown militant groups but we have never found any kind of IS activity here,” he said.

The minister said the propaganda about IS’ presence in Bangladesh was “nothing but a conspiracy established by a group in support of some foreign countries”.

Inspector General of Police AKM Shahidul Hoque echoed the home minister. He claimed to have settled around 80% militant cases that happened in the past couple of years, and none arrested in connection with those cases have admitted having involvement with the IS or any other group.

“In some incidents, especially in Satkania or Chittagong communal violence, we arrested a number of accused and all of them later confessed that all these activities were done at the directive of some top leader of Jamaat-e-Islam and Islami Chhatra Shibir,” added the police chief.

Common cause?

When contacted by the Dhaka Tribune, security analyst Brig Gen (retd) Abdur Rashid said: “There might be some differences between the two groups internationally, but I do not think that these killings are happening in Bangladesh as internal conflicts between the AQIS and the IS.”

On getting support from homegrown militant groups, he said the local groups were yet to enter the organisational curriculum of the AQIS or the IS. “We only see some ideological similarities among these militant groups,” he said.

Besides, the local militants’ activities mainly survive centring local political phenomena and they are not able to play any effective role in IS activity, he said. “Moreover, the homegrown militant groups have not got any international support yet.”

About establishing supremacy, Brig Gen Rashid said: “We have never seen these groups engaged in clashes among themselves; we have not even got any evidence that signals such clashes. We have rather seen the militant outfits working together in the international stage. They locked in clashes over some small reasons sometimes, but they are all together about establishing their main agenda and they are fighting for it standing on the same ground."

Modus operandi

Meanwhile, InSITE Blog, a sister concern of SITE Intelligence, showed in a latest post that both the AQIS and the IS have demonstrated drastically different targets and attack methods. The AQIS has focused on those perceived to insult Islam, largely resorting to knife and machete attacks. A May 15, 2015 list of target categories by the group includes those “trying to destroy Muslim social values.”

 Those who are trying to destroy Muslim social values by introducing and spreading the nudity and zina (unlawful sexual relations between Muslims) among the Muslim youths. Keep in mind that there is a huge difference between doing something bad personally and spreading it in the society.  

The IS’ target range has shown to be contrastingly open-ended, including foreigners of “Crusader coalition states", Christian converts, Hindus, police personnel, and Shia establishments. Methods have included shootings, stabbings, and the use of explosive devices, the InSITE blog post reads.

SITE Director Rita Katz, a former intelligence operator herself, said: “As soon as the Islamic State began carrying out attacks in Bangladesh, we predicted attacks would increase while the group and AQIS competed.

“This is exactly what we are seeing now as the Islamic State claimed six attacks in 2016 alone,” she said.

Stratfor stresses that al-Hanif’s promise to expand Islamic State operations in Bangladesh should be taken seriously by the government, especially his vow to take on rival extremist groups since. If provoked, al-Qaeda and other groups already operating here will retaliate, dramatically raising the threat of terrorist activities in the country.

This article first appeared on the Dhaka Tribune website.