What explains Narendra Modi's sudden bonhomie with Nitish Kumar?

Having promised to deliver a “Congress-mukt Bharat” [Congress-free India] in his 2014 election campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now making a conscious effort to isolate the grand old party by going soft on its present and potential allies.

This was discernible from his recent public statements which are clearly aimed at wooing regional parties like the Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal (United) and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

The Bharatiya Janata Party already enjoys a good rapport with Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Biju Janata Dal and is building bridges with the Trinamool Congress.

Of these parties, the Congress has an alliance with the Janata Dal (U) in Bihar, which is expected to be replicated on the national level, while the regional players from Uttar Pradesh are broadly seen to be on its side, having extended outside support to the United Progressive Alliance government.

The Left parties and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are predictably not on the BJP’s radar as both these parties have strong ideological differences with the saffron party and can never be seen on its side.

Isolating the Congress

Having identified the Congress as the BJP’s main political adversary, Modi has consistently targeted the principal opposition party and its vice-president Rahul Gandhi in his speeches. The prime minister came down hard on the Congress leader in his reply to the motion of thanks on the President’s address in Parliament but refrained from meting out the same treatment to the regional players.

In fact, Modi referred deferentially to Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav in the Lok Sabha, while recalling how Rahul Gandhi had publicly torn a copy of his party’s election manifesto during the 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll campaign.

Putting down Rahul Gandhi for not showing respect to elders, Modi remarked that though they were not on the same political page, he respected Yadav because of their common bond with socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia. He described the Samajwadi Party leader as a “respected leader committed to democracy.”

In addition, Modi specifically referred to the points raised by Trinamool Congress Member of Parliament Saugata Roy and BJD member Tathagata Satpathy.

Modi repeated the same ploy in the Rajya Sabha when he hit out at the Congress but not at the regional parties. Comparing the Congress to death, Modi said, like death, the Congress party is never criticised and is seen to be above blame.

“Sometimes I feel Congress is also blessed like death ... whenever we criticise the Congress, the media says the opposition is under attack,” Modi pointed out. But when the government criticises parties like the Janata Dal (United) or the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, the media sees it differently, he said. “It says the JD(U) or the BSP are under attack.”

The effort to isolate the Congress was again evident during the vote on the Aadhar Bill in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. Taking full advantage of the recent Congress-Left electoral pact in West Bengal and the opposition party’s tie-up with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, the BJP was able to persuade the Trinamool Congress to walk out before the vote. The AIADMK voted with the government. The ruling alliance also succeeded in ensuring that the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (U) and the Nationalist Congress Party were not present when the Congress-sponsored amendments to the Bill were put to vote.

New bonhomie

Modi’s move to create a wedge between the Congress and its allies was again on display on his visit to Patna last week where he praised his bête noire, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. On his first visit to the state after the BJP’s humiliating defeat in last year’s bitterly contested assembly poll, Modi and Nitish Kumar were seen together on a common platform at an official function.

The camaraderie between the two was picked up by the cameras as Modi and the chief minister looked at ease in each other’s company. While Nitish Kumar came in for praise, Modi was not so kind to the RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Congress. He slammed both parties for blocking important development projects meant for Bihar.

These recent developments have not gone unnoticed in political circles. Modi’s move to treat regional players with kid gloves is a tacit admission that the BJP will necessarily have to do business with them in the future as it realises it will be difficult for it to emerge as a pan-Indian party. “I think Modi now understands that it will not be easy to displace regional parties in states like West Bengal, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. That explains his outreach to these parties,” a senior BJP minister pointed out.

There is another contributory factor, which is that neither the BJP nor the Congress will ever have a majority in the Rajya Sabha where regional parties will continue to have a substantial presence. Consequently, it makes political sense for the prime minister to build as many bridges with the non-Congress, non-ideological opposition as he can, because his government will be dependent on them to push through its legislative agenda in the Upper House.

Poll preparations

It will also be imperative for both the Congress and the BJP to stitch up alliances with regional parties in the forthcoming assembly polls as well as the 2019 Lok Sabha election. “Given this ground reality, both the Congress and the BJP will be in competition to win over regional parties,” said a senior Congress leader.

Modi’s recent statements, especially his unusually friendly demeanour towards Nitish Kumar, have to be seen in this light. Although it is highly unlikely that the JD(U) leader will join hands with the BJP again (after all, he also sees himself as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate), Modi will not be averse to it. In such a scenario (although it seems highly unlikely as of now), Nitish Kumar would be ruled out as Modi’s potential rival.

For the present, however, Modi would be satisfied if the Bihar chief minister were to tone down his opposition to the ruling government at the Centre, particularly since Nitish Kumar’s words resonate with the public because of his personal credibility.

“It is obvious Modi wants to minimise all opposition to his government,” remarked a Congress office bearer. "It would help if he can also drive a wedge between the Congress and its allies."