When the Congress pressed for a vote on an amendment to the motion of thanks to the President’s address in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, two parties broke ranks with the Opposition – Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and J Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. While AIADMK members of Parliament voted with the government, Trinamool Congress members did not participate in the voting although they were present in the House.
This unexpected support extended to the Narendra Modi government by the parties of the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu chief ministers on the eve of Assembly elections in both states reflects a growing proximity between the ruling party at the Centre and the two regional players.
It has also perhaps betrayed what the Bharatiya Janata Party thinks of its chances in the upcoming Assembly elections, revealing a shift in the saffron party’s strategy. The BJP seems to have realised that it would be better served by having the TMC and AIADMK on its side in Parliament instead of alienating the leaders of the regional parties by battling them in states where it has little hope of making any major electoral gains later this year.
While West Bengal will see six phases of polling starting April 4, Tamil Nadu will have single-phase polling on May 16.
Friends for now
BJP insiders admit that given its numerical strength in the Rajya Sabha, where a united Opposition has successfully derailed its legislative agenda over the past two years, it has become important for their party to reach out to parties that are not particularly inimical to it like the TMC and AIADMK.
“The fact is that we are weak in both these states,” said a senior BJP leader. “We would rather focus on Assam where we have a chance of forming a government instead of squandering our energies in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu… We can also do with some help in the Rajya Sabha.”
The BJP believes that the two regional parties can also be persuaded to join its National Democratic Alliance, or lend outside support to it, after the Assembly elections. Both Banerjee and Jayalalithaa have been NDA allies in the past. Jayalalithaa, in particular, shares a good personal equation with the prime minister. The BJP does not want to close this option by unnecessarily needling the two chief ministers, who are widely expected to retain their states.
Change in strategy
The upshot of this strategy is that the BJP has been forced to revise its earlier grand plan of extending its footprint to states where it has traditionally been weak. It had earmarked West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala in this category after the Modi wave of 2014 enabled it to make inroads in these states. But while the BJP was met with success in Assam and Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have remained out of its grasp.
The BJP has previously led a shrill campaign against Mamata Banerjee with heavyweights – BJP president Amit Shah and Union ministers Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari – addressing public meetings in West Bengal calling for all-out war against the Trinamool Congress. But the mood has changed now.
BJP leaders privately admit that the party failed to consolidate the gains it made in the 2014 elections (it won two Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal) and blame the intense factional battle in its West Bengal unit for this state of affairs.
After the Congress and the Left Front decided to go for an informal electoral pact in the coming assembly polls in the state, there’s little space left for the BJP in what promises to be a straight fight between the Trinamool Congress and the Left-Congress combine. However, the party is planning to contest all the seats in the Assembly election and has fielded Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose’s nephew Chandra Kumar Bose against Mamata Banerjee to show that it is serious about the elections. However, from all accounts, it is evident that the BJP has given up on West Bengal.
In Tamil Nadu
It is the same story in Tamil Nadu where politics is dominated by the two Dravidian parties and a host of smaller caste-based outfits that have pockets of influence in the state. “Alliances are critical in Tamil Nadu but we have not met with any success on this front,” a BJP minister said.
It is not that the BJP has not tried to forge an alliance in Tamil Nadu. Environment minister Prakash Javadekar recently travelled to Chennai to meet Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam chief Vijaykanth, who was with the NDA during the 2014 elections, but is now planning to jump ship. With Javadekar getting no assurance from Vijaykanth, a worried BJP president Amit Shah has held several internal meetings to review the situation in Tamil Nadu.
Reports from Chennai say that Vijaykanth is all set to join M Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which has already tied up with the Congress. Vijayakanth’s party won 28 seats in the 2011 assembly elections. Although most of its legislators have defected to the AIADMK, the actor-politician continues to be courted by prospective allies who believe his influence can help push up their vote share.
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