Last week, the Election Commission declared the poll dates for the assembly elections this year.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Puducherry will see single phase polling on May 16. Assam will have two phases while West Bengal will vote in six phases stretched over a month.
As of now, with not much time left, the political churn is so intense that these dates seem to be the only certainty about the polls.
In Tamil Nadu, a Cabinet minister got snubbed, while Jayalalithaa made both the BJP and Congress squirm.
Elections in Tamil Nadu have almost always been about the big two Dravidian parties, and this year is no different. For a while it seemed as if the Bharatiya Janata Party might make something of a dent, thanks to its rainbow alliance with a number of smaller parties in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but this hope was not just dashed but also given a proper burial last week.
Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar made a sudden, unannounced trip to the state, ostensibly to meet with film star "Captain" Vijaykanth, who heads the Desiya Morpokku Dravida Kazhagam. The DMDK – which was for a while the official Opposition in the state – had been a BJP ally in 2014. Javadekar’s visit, however, left him red-faced after Vijaykanth decided not to meet him. The Captain chose to go off on a tour of his constituency instead.
The BJP has been trying to keep the DMDK away from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, but seems unwilling to let Vijaykanth be declared chief ministerial candidate, because of what it might mean for its alliances elsewhere. The snub to Javadekar means it is becoming more and more likely that the DMK, which has already agreed to ally with the Congress, could still manage to bring the DMDK into its fold.
Meanwhile, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa, who is currently chief minister, managed to unnerve both the DMK-Congress combine as well as the BJP, by informing the Centre that the state government intended to release the convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.
The Dravidian parties have always played with the "humanitarian" side of the politics of this assassination, but the DMK’s alliance partner Congress cannot be party to such a decision. And the BJP, which has been trying to grow in Tamil Nadu, will endanger its nationalist image if it gives in to Jayalalithaa’s demand. Two birds, one Amma.
In Kerala, the Teflon Congress-run coalition is starting to see some cracks.
There’s good reason that Kerala Chief Minister Oomen Chandy’s government is facing serious anti-incumbency pressure. In the last year alone, his Cabinet and his own office has been wracked by serious corruption allegations, involving alcohol, sex and solar panels. The charges have gone all the way up to Chandy himself, and even if they don’t stick in court they have certainly dented his government's image.
Yet, a recent poll still gave Chandy reason to be cheerful as his Congress-led United Democratic Front actually remains in the race to return to power in the state. This in part is because of the disunity in the ranks of the Left Democratic Front, which continues to waffle on a leadership battle between a septuagenarian and a nonagenarian.
But events of the last few weeks should leave Chandy worried. For one, the BJP has finally sown up its alliance with the political wing of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam, an Ezhava group, the largest Hindu community in the state. This is more likely to split votes away from the Left, but a strong BJP-Ezhava grouping can harp on allegations that the UDF doesn’t care for Hindus.
And last week, the Kerala Congress (Mani), a UDF ally, has split, with the second-rung of leaders going off to the LDF under the name of the erstwhile Kerala Congress (Joseph). This will tilt some of the balance in the state and add to the UDF’s woes, despite Chandy’s canny handling of coalition drama.
In Assam, Congress and BJP play a game of alliances while migration threatens to become a polarising issue.
The BJP plays challenger to Tarun Gogoi’s Congress government, which has had three terms in power. As the Congress struggles with anti-incumbency, the BJP makes a determined bid for power in Assam.
The state has already received close attention from senior leaders, including party president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. In a break from custom, it has also declared a chief ministerial candidate: Sarbananda Sonowal, currently Union minister for sports and agriculture and formerly a member of the Asom Gana Parishad.
These polls, however, promise to be a game of alliances. In a region shaped largely by ethnic politics, the BJP plans to make inroads by tying up with local parties. In January, it firmed up an alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front, which controls the Bodoland Territorial Council. Last fortnight, it tied up with the AGP, a party which thrives on a cocktail of regional and ethnic chauvinism. It may be a difficult alliance to pull off, since the two parties have serious ideological differences and there have been protests among the cadres of both.
The Congress had earlier dismissed rumours of a Bihar-style grand alliance with regional parties, especially the All India United Democratic Front, seen as representing Muslim interests and currently the second largest party in the legislative assembly. But with the BJP having sealed the deal with AGP, the Congress could be revising its strategy. This week, it tied up with the United Progressive Party, the fledgling Bodo party that has emerged as challenger to the BPF in Bodoland. The Congress could also eyeing the AIUDF with renewed warmth.
The BJP says it will talk development in Assam, steering away from contentious ethnic issues. But Modi, visiting Kokrajhar in January, promised he would push through scheduled tribe status for Karbi in the plains and Bodos in hill districts.
The migration debate, a mainstay of Assam politics of decades, threatens to become a polarising issue. The state is updating its National Register of Citizens, an exercise aimed at rooting out illegal Bangladeshi immigrants.
The BJP has said Hindu migrants should be rehabilitated in India since they had fled religious persecution in Bangladesh, but Muslim migrants should be pushed back. The AGP, meanwhile, wants all migrants, Hindu or Muslim, to be ejected from Assam.
On the other side of the debate, the AIUDF has emerged as protector of Muslims threatened by the National Register of Citizens. The Congress may currently be claiming credit for the ongoing exercise but it has been known to extend political patronage to migrant populations.
In West Bengal, it’s Didi versus the rest as BJP eyes the role of chief opposition and the Left and Congress talk alliances.
West Bengal, home to some of most vicious bouts of political violence, will vote over six phases. The last time, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress swept to power on the promise of “poriborton” or change, ending 34 years of Left Front rule in the state. Poriborton has not come and Banerjee has failed to make good on her poll promises of creating jobs and attracting investment. But the TMC has managed to hold on to power, by fair means or foul, cleaning up both panchayat and general elections. This year, too, it’s Didi versus the rest.
After its defeat in 2011, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) saw large-scale defections to the TMC, which depleted the Left even further. For the better part of the last five years, the Left in Bengal has seemed a spent force, unable to regroup itself or come up with a winning idea. This year, it showed signs of life once more, with party workers on the ground quite eager to forge an alliance with the Congress.
There are two roadblocks to this plan. First, the CPI(M)’s central leadership is reluctant since the Congress and the Left are rivals in Kerala, which also goes to polls in April. Second, the two parties have run into trouble over seat sharing in Bengal.
Looking more robust is the BJP, which has been making steady gains in vote share since the general elections of 2014 and drawn a section of the Left cadre as well. The party boasts of a spike in membership in Bengal and has become vastly more visible in urban elections. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh shakhas have also sprouted across the countryside. Amit Shah was flown in to kickstart the campaign in January and the party looks eager to replace the Left as chief opposition in the state.
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