Beyond arms deals, Hollande's India visit aims to revive his reputation at home in France

France continues to be the undisputed leader on the culture front – it was ranked first in the category of cultural influence in the latest Best Countries listing of 60 countries released on January 20 at Davos by the Wharton School. President Francois Hollande’s visit to India this week is a way for the French to show that the country also exerts significant diplomatic influence and is a potentially major economic partner of one of the most promising developing economies in the world. Hollande’s three-day trip, during which he will be the guest of honour at the Republic Day parade, is ostensibly intended to serve three purposes: diplomatic, economic and political.

France, which backs India's claims for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, and India have a long-standing history of friendly bilateral relations. The two countries have been strategic partners since President Jacques Chirac’s visit to New Delhi in 1998. This was the first time the Indian government ever signed a strategic partnership with another country, recognising France as a key player particularly in the nuclear power and defence sectors.

In the past 20 years, top leaders of both countries engaged with each other during a series of official and state visits. This is the fifth time that a French president has been invited as the chief guest for the Republic Day parade – an unprecedented honour that shows the depth of the relationship and an acknowledgement of France’s diplomatic stature. This is also a welcome gesture barely a month after the landmark climate agreement that Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Affairs minister, managed to seal at the end of the COP-21 conference in Paris. Moreover, François Hollande has previously made official visits to Russia, Brazil and China. His forthcoming India visit signals that France has fully grasped the importance of the BRICS grouping of nations.

Business concerns

But this trip is also about business. In Paris, one word dominates any discussion about the Indo-French entente: Rafale. Indeed, India was supposed to buy 126 warplanes manufactured by French company Dassault. This was considered an economic and strategic victory because this plane was known for being impossible to sell. New Delhi tried to use this as leverage to negotiate lower prices and a more advantageous sale agreement. But, while the negotiations stalled, France managed to sell its jets to Qatar and Egypt.

In April last year, Narendra Modi announced during an official visit in Paris that India was buying 36 Rafale jets. The news that a deal, albeit of lesser magnitude, was finally about to come through after years of flux, came as a relief. Hollande and Modi are now expected to announce the final parameters of the deal, chiefly concerning whether or not the plane will be sold “off the shelf”, which would preclude any technology transfers. This is expected to put a welcome end to years of uncertainty, while bringing the French a much-needed 10 to 12 billion euros.

On their India trip, Hollande and his delegation are also hoping to push deals for French-built nuclear reactors and three Scorpene submarines. It will also showcase its expertise in solar energy, water and waste management. Detractors will point to both Hollande and Modi resorting to a strategy of “green-washing”. Others, perhaps equally cynical, will point to the economic gains of such long- term investments for France given the India's pace of development and energy needs.

Reputation at stake

This visit also serves a political purpose for President Hollande. A few days ago, the French media and some members of the political class commemorated Francois Mitterrand’s 20th death anniversary. The former President, who had been the first member of the Socialist Party to occupy this position, had ushered in and mentored a new generation of elected officials and civil servants. Among them was François Hollande.

Mitterrand had many nicknames, but one in particular stuck. "Pharaoh hinted at his monarch-like rule and sense of personal grandeur. Hollande’s nickname is equally striking but less flattering: Flanby, a brand of industrial caramel custard that is bland, shapeless and definitely spineless.

And so international summits, like the UN Climate Summit held in Paris last December, and foreign visits are now seen by his own counsellors not only as important landmarks for French politics and economy, but also as ways to restore Hollande’s presidential stature.

François Hollande had promised that he will not seek a second term in 2017 if the unemployment rate, currently at a peak of 10,5%, does not subside. On January 18, he announced a grand plan for job creation. People were unimpressed and a group of several left-wing intellectuals, including economist Thomas Piketty, have even publicly called for a primary before the 2017 presidential race.

Hollande is no longer considered as the obvious choice even in his own camp. His approval rate is a poor 30%. The only time it rose was after the Charlie Hebdo attack in January 2015 and the terror strikes on November 13 when 153 people died on the streets of Paris. During these two moments of national mourning and distress, he appeared a sober and dignified figure. This momentary popularity plummeted again after a few weeks as he embarked on a series of Patriot Act-like measures.

The India visit will, Hollande’s advisers hope, help boost the president’s reputation. The Indian and the French media will show images of him reviewing troops, trying to look like a general-in-chief, meeting leading local businessmen, and more importantly being the guest of honour in what journalists will inevitably call again and again "the largest democracy in the world". Hollande’s presence in India, although planned before the November attacks in Paris, is therefore largely a PR stunt to save "Flanby".

Predictably, Narendra Modi and François Hollande will speak in grave tones about their common interest in fighting terrorism. The French government, which has prolonged almost to the point of absurdity the tributes to the victims of the attacks in order to keep the nation in mourning and deter any criticism of the state of emergency, will undoubtedly gain from this “war on terrorism” narrative.

In short, therefore, François Hollande’s visit to India is both totally predictable but absolutely necessary. The last chapter of EM Forster’s Passage to India begins with the words “Friends again”. In the case of France and India, it’s a case of “Friends always, and now more than ever”.