When first mooted in the middle of November, the Delhi’s government move to cut the dangerous air-pollution levels by limiting traffic on the capital’s roads based on vehicle registration numbers seemed bold and ambitious. A month on, however, the Aam Aadmi Party’s strategy is beginning to look like a half-hearted measure prompted by the courts and fuelled by a commitment to populism.

It was hoped that a 15-day trial of a scheme allowing vehicles with odd-numbered license plates to ply every alternate day and even-numbered plates on the others would nudge residents into thinking about adopting cleaner ways of commuting, such as using public transport and carpooling.   But as the date of implementation draws closer, the optimism about the odd-even number plate policy is on the wane.

Days before the 15-day trial is to begin on January 1, even the government is still foggy about the policy. While an official memo is still awaited, it’s clear that the policy has been watered down. According to experts, some of these dilutions will render the policy altogether irrelevant.

Many now fear that the strategy devised by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's government is unlikely to live up to expectations.

Too many exemptions

The Delhi government has exempted all two-wheelers from the scheme, the vehicles of Union ministers, chief ministers of all states (except Delhi), and women drivers who are travelling alone or with female co-riders. There are about 15 other categories that are also exempt from what is being commonly interpreted as a please-all policy. Experts warn that all these exemptions could greatly reduce the potential impact of the odd-even policy.

According to Centre for Science and Environment, two-wheelers alone account for 31% of the particulate matter emission from vehicles.

“If this segment is left out and a sizeable number of cars are also allowed because of the exemption granted to single women drivers, the overall effectiveness of the programme will be compromised,” it said in a press note.

The organisation urged the government to at least bring back two-wheelers under the mandate of the 15-day trial of the odd-even policy.

In addition, there are many criticising the move to exempt women. While security concerns presumably prompted the exemption, some women's rights groups had earlier asked the government not to make any concessions.

According to data from the 2011 Census, women drivers comprise about 17% of all cars, jeeps and vans on Delhi roads being used to commute to work.

Logistics problems

Experience suggests that the odd-even policy has not had much success anywhere else in the world. In cities such as Beijing and London, residents have been quick to find workarounds including buying second-hand vehicles that complement their existing odd- or even-numbered rides. Experts argue that the aim should be to make vehicles cleaner instead of trying to take some of them off the roads.

What the authorities will also have to contend with is the logistical nightmare associated with the policy. There are more than a dozen exempted categories of vehicles which will ply on the road unfettered, making the job all the more difficult for the Delhi Police, which has been tasked with collecting a fine of Rs 2,000 from violators.

The understaffed police force has already accepted that it will have trouble implementing the rule.

"It is impossible to randomly check vehicles," a senior police officer told Mail Today. This may lead to major chaos on roads, particularly during peak hours. It will be difficult to assess the success of the odd-even formula in such circumstances."

Another police officer said that the government cannot expect the police force to simultaneously regulate traffic and issue fines.

“We are already managing traffic with less staff and if the government asks us to deploy more manpower to check odd-even vehicles, then it would be almost impossible for us to manage," an officer said. "Our main priority is traffic management. We have only 5,500 men including officers."

In the build-up to the experiment, there’s already a nascent black market of number plates and fake registration certificates. Those desperate to find their way around the odd-even policy have created demand for single digit stickers that can be fixed over the existing number plate to switch it from odd to even or vice-versa. They are also exploring the option of sporting fake number plates altogether.

Some hope

While the pitfalls are plenty, there is still a glimmer of optimism. Many transportation experts and commentators say that the move will at least initiate a conversation about making the city’s air breathable again. Others suggest that the criticisms are coming from the entitled middle class, which is being asked to sacrifice their convenience for a short experiment that promises long-term benefits for all citizens.

“Delhi’s elite is terrified at the prospect of having a spot of car trouble for a fortnight just in order to live a little longer thanks to cleaner air,” Mihir Sharma wrote in the Business Standard. “Our whiny 'middle class' would rather have sewage in their water, cancer in their air and death on their roads than ever accept that they share the earth they walk on with other, lesser breeds of human.”