Soon after the 2014 Lok Sabha results came out, giving two seats to JD (U) and four to RJD and a thumping thirty one to NDA, Nitish Kumar dialled an unusual and almost forgotten number. It was that of Lalu Prasad. He wanted to commiserate with Lalu for his wife and daughter losing from Saran and Pataliputra respectively.
It was the first sign of a thaw between the two big Bihar leaders since they parted ways in 1994. Their individual politics came full circle after two decades. They discussed the poll percentage and knew they needed each other.
It was Nitish Kumar who had opened the window on Lalu, who responded by opening the gate for Nitish by supporting Nitish’s candidates in the Rajya Sabha bypolls, held just two months after Lok Sabha poll results. Just a day after the Lok Sabha poll results, Nitish resigned from the Chief Minister’s post on May 17, 2015.
JD (U) president Sharad Yadav talked to Lalu Prasad, who expressed his desire to support the JD (U) government led by Jitan Ram Manjhi. Senior RJD leader and former Buxar MP Jagdanand Singh had also impressed upon Lalu and Nitish the need to come together to fight Narendra Modi.
“Politicians may not have great love for mathematics. But they are always in love with social mathematics. Lalu Prasad had social mathematics in his favour for a long time. Even in face of a depleted support base after fifteen years of rule, he managed 19 - 20 per cent votes with MY still remaining his fulcrum. What Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar also discussed in their subsequent conversation was their combined vote percentage crossing thirty seven per cent (RJD and NCP: 20.06 per cent and JD (U) and CPI: 17 per cent). The obvious thought of Congress (8.2 per cent) coming together made the calculation heavily loaded in their favour. It was a story of adding up after the NDA split.”
But the biggest question was: How could Nitish, the much-touted development and Bihar turnaround man, justify his alliance with Lalu Prasad, who had got the epithet of “jungle raj” and one who took Bihar to the “lantern age”?
See what Nitish Kumar once said about his political elder brother: “Lalu Prasad’s entire political career is a manifesto of destruction of Bihar”.
Nitish had openly targeted Lalu Prasad’s involvement in the fodder case. “Lalu Prasad must not get any votes because he is convicted in a corruption case”, said Nitish during a meeting during the 2014 poll campaign.
Nitish Kumar’s growth in Bihar politics had been mainly at the expense of Lalu Prasad, who revelled in buffoonery, rustic proverbs and chaita (folk songs sung during the first Hindi month) dance at the expense of people of the state desperate for even a streak of good governance.
The development image of Nitish came much later, first as a counter to Lalu Prasad and later as the most effective weapon against the RJD chief to exhibit a clear, paradigm shift in governance. Nitish Kumar, during his first term, had gloated about how caste-ridden politics had given way to development politics.
The astounding 2010 NDA victory looked to testify to this theory. Caste was never so camouflaged in Bihar politics as during the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly polls. Development politics from the Hindi heartland, where everyone is interested in your surname to know your political leanings, had been the biggest draw for the national and international media during the Nitish-led NDA rule.
But Narendra Modi had left Nitish with little option in the last Lok Sabha polls. Development politics was still tempting Nitish, who wanted to project it as his strong point. But social arithmetic is sadly the only reality of Bihar politics, any other factor is a wrapper.
Caste is the hinge of Bihar politics. You can change the door, paint it and beautify it but the social hinge is irreplaceable. The hinge was camouflaged with an extra coating of development during Nitish days for sure.
It is a great political irony for Nitish Kumar that he had separated from Lalu Prasad in 1994 on account of Lalu’s low focus on development and overdoing of caste politics.
But when he decided to come back to Lalu, it was after Nitish had failed with his development politics. He kept convincing people during his campaign to vote for his good governance but voters gave him a big thumbs-down against Narendra Modi’s overwhelming and vociferous development agenda. Voters would, at best, assert during the 2014 campaigns that they would choose Modi in this election but might return to Nitish in the 2015 Assembly elections.
Nitish held 215 campaigns and during the last one at Vaishali, The Indian Express editor (now chief editor) Raj Kamal Jha, whom I accompanied to the meeting, spoke to a group of youth to know their mind. One of them said he had come to see the helicopter and dropped enough hints of voting for Narendra Modi. Jha wondered at Nitish’s diction and convincing counter-attack against BJP’s “corporate” campaign, but Nitish’s logic was perhaps lost in the Modi wave.
Nitish, the biggest political calculator of Bihar politics, could not afford to lose Lalu after his crushing defeat. It was calculation alone that had made him align with the BJP in the 1996 post-1995 poll drubbing of Samata Party that had won only seven seats. Nitish had closely followed how Lalu Prasad had been able to form his government in 1995 and 2000 polls by getting a little over 27 per cent of votes in a three-way contest.
Nitish had worked a social combination with the BJP that had the upper caste, non-Yadav OBCs, a fair chunk of EBCs and dalits. The combination took its time to fructify against Lalu. Three years into the NDA alliance, the result was showing – and how! The 1999 Lok Sabha sweep for NDA under AB Vajpayee was the high point. The October 2005 Assembly was the second coming of this combination, which had learnt to wrap it well with development.
What brought Nitish close to his political bade bhai is pure, social arithmetic. It is not at all about ideology. It is true that they came from the same JP and Lohia school of thought. But they had been poles apart right from the beginning. If it is ideology, it is the ideology of convenience. Nitish’s only agenda after his defeat is to trounce his bête noire Narendra Modi. Nitish wants Lalu with this motive in Bihar; he wants Janta Parivar with the same motive at the national level.
Excerpted with permission from Ruled or Misruled: The Story and Destiny of Bihar, Santosh Singh, Bloomsbury.
It was the first sign of a thaw between the two big Bihar leaders since they parted ways in 1994. Their individual politics came full circle after two decades. They discussed the poll percentage and knew they needed each other.
It was Nitish Kumar who had opened the window on Lalu, who responded by opening the gate for Nitish by supporting Nitish’s candidates in the Rajya Sabha bypolls, held just two months after Lok Sabha poll results. Just a day after the Lok Sabha poll results, Nitish resigned from the Chief Minister’s post on May 17, 2015.
JD (U) president Sharad Yadav talked to Lalu Prasad, who expressed his desire to support the JD (U) government led by Jitan Ram Manjhi. Senior RJD leader and former Buxar MP Jagdanand Singh had also impressed upon Lalu and Nitish the need to come together to fight Narendra Modi.
“Politicians may not have great love for mathematics. But they are always in love with social mathematics. Lalu Prasad had social mathematics in his favour for a long time. Even in face of a depleted support base after fifteen years of rule, he managed 19 - 20 per cent votes with MY still remaining his fulcrum. What Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar also discussed in their subsequent conversation was their combined vote percentage crossing thirty seven per cent (RJD and NCP: 20.06 per cent and JD (U) and CPI: 17 per cent). The obvious thought of Congress (8.2 per cent) coming together made the calculation heavily loaded in their favour. It was a story of adding up after the NDA split.”
But the biggest question was: How could Nitish, the much-touted development and Bihar turnaround man, justify his alliance with Lalu Prasad, who had got the epithet of “jungle raj” and one who took Bihar to the “lantern age”?
See what Nitish Kumar once said about his political elder brother: “Lalu Prasad’s entire political career is a manifesto of destruction of Bihar”.
Nitish had openly targeted Lalu Prasad’s involvement in the fodder case. “Lalu Prasad must not get any votes because he is convicted in a corruption case”, said Nitish during a meeting during the 2014 poll campaign.
Nitish Kumar’s growth in Bihar politics had been mainly at the expense of Lalu Prasad, who revelled in buffoonery, rustic proverbs and chaita (folk songs sung during the first Hindi month) dance at the expense of people of the state desperate for even a streak of good governance.
The development image of Nitish came much later, first as a counter to Lalu Prasad and later as the most effective weapon against the RJD chief to exhibit a clear, paradigm shift in governance. Nitish Kumar, during his first term, had gloated about how caste-ridden politics had given way to development politics.
The astounding 2010 NDA victory looked to testify to this theory. Caste was never so camouflaged in Bihar politics as during the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly polls. Development politics from the Hindi heartland, where everyone is interested in your surname to know your political leanings, had been the biggest draw for the national and international media during the Nitish-led NDA rule.
But Narendra Modi had left Nitish with little option in the last Lok Sabha polls. Development politics was still tempting Nitish, who wanted to project it as his strong point. But social arithmetic is sadly the only reality of Bihar politics, any other factor is a wrapper.
Caste is the hinge of Bihar politics. You can change the door, paint it and beautify it but the social hinge is irreplaceable. The hinge was camouflaged with an extra coating of development during Nitish days for sure.
It is a great political irony for Nitish Kumar that he had separated from Lalu Prasad in 1994 on account of Lalu’s low focus on development and overdoing of caste politics.
But when he decided to come back to Lalu, it was after Nitish had failed with his development politics. He kept convincing people during his campaign to vote for his good governance but voters gave him a big thumbs-down against Narendra Modi’s overwhelming and vociferous development agenda. Voters would, at best, assert during the 2014 campaigns that they would choose Modi in this election but might return to Nitish in the 2015 Assembly elections.
Nitish held 215 campaigns and during the last one at Vaishali, The Indian Express editor (now chief editor) Raj Kamal Jha, whom I accompanied to the meeting, spoke to a group of youth to know their mind. One of them said he had come to see the helicopter and dropped enough hints of voting for Narendra Modi. Jha wondered at Nitish’s diction and convincing counter-attack against BJP’s “corporate” campaign, but Nitish’s logic was perhaps lost in the Modi wave.
Nitish, the biggest political calculator of Bihar politics, could not afford to lose Lalu after his crushing defeat. It was calculation alone that had made him align with the BJP in the 1996 post-1995 poll drubbing of Samata Party that had won only seven seats. Nitish had closely followed how Lalu Prasad had been able to form his government in 1995 and 2000 polls by getting a little over 27 per cent of votes in a three-way contest.
Nitish had worked a social combination with the BJP that had the upper caste, non-Yadav OBCs, a fair chunk of EBCs and dalits. The combination took its time to fructify against Lalu. Three years into the NDA alliance, the result was showing – and how! The 1999 Lok Sabha sweep for NDA under AB Vajpayee was the high point. The October 2005 Assembly was the second coming of this combination, which had learnt to wrap it well with development.
What brought Nitish close to his political bade bhai is pure, social arithmetic. It is not at all about ideology. It is true that they came from the same JP and Lohia school of thought. But they had been poles apart right from the beginning. If it is ideology, it is the ideology of convenience. Nitish’s only agenda after his defeat is to trounce his bête noire Narendra Modi. Nitish wants Lalu with this motive in Bihar; he wants Janta Parivar with the same motive at the national level.
Excerpted with permission from Ruled or Misruled: The Story and Destiny of Bihar, Santosh Singh, Bloomsbury.
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