Elections to the almost-state of Delhi should simply not be that important. Yes, it is one of the largest cities in the country, representing a wide range of people across classes. But that still counts for around 2% of India's population, with concerns that are significantly different to those living elsewhere. Yet, Saturday's Delhi elections have grabbed all the headlines and airtime for the last few weeks, in part because there is little else happening politically, but also because the outcome could change India’s political future.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been on a roll. Ever since getting the most seats in four different state elections in December 2013 ‒ including Delhi, although the BJP would not go on to form the government there ‒ the party has been racking up the electoral wins: a massive victory in the Lok Sabha polls, wins in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, and a surprisingly strong show in Jammu and Kashmir.
Delhi, most unexpectedly, turns out to be the party’s first real test. Polls indicate that the Aam Aadmi Party has taken the lead, after a year of dealing with the accusations of having beat a cowardly retreat the last time it formed the state government in 2013. But the numbers are still tight enough to suggest that any of four outcomes is possible.
1) BJP wins outright
This shouldn’t be surprising, yet it would be. The BJP actually won the most number of seats in Delhi in the previous polls, then strengthened its vote share to a whopping 46% in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and began as the clear front-runner here. ABP-Nielsen’s polls in November suggested it was most popular choice by a huge margin But the most recent projections actually give it fewer seats than the AAP.
What’s at stake is BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to field as the chief ministerial candidate an outsider and a big name, former Indian Police Service officer Kiran Bedi. The decision appears to have been a mistake: it gave the media a focal point other than just the popularity of the PM. Because Bedi was already inspiring unhappiness within the party, that was easily exacerbated.
But if the BJP wins nevertheless, it will only further cement Shah’s image as a master strategist and give the party a huge amount of political leverage going into the other major election of the year, in Bihar. It would also mean Delhi dealing with Kiran Bedi as its CM.
2) AAP wins outright
This should be surprising, yet it might not be. Opinion polls are leaning AAP’s way, and the party has been projecting itself as an outright winner. This result would be very significant for the national political scene, because it will be the first serious loss for the Shah-Modi combine in years, that too right under their noses.
AAP’s victory would be a testament to the Indian voter’s ability to forgive and give parties another chance, while entirely upending the BJP’s approach, because it would also prove that the Shah-Modi set-up is fallible. The party has sought to insist this election won’t be a referendum on the Modi government and cannot dent his popularity nationwide, yet it splashed exactly that record on front-page ads across Delhi’s newspaper the day before the elections.
And if they were calling the party one full of dramebaazes before, just wait for an AAP state government to deal with the Modi-run Centre. It would also mean Delhi dealing with Arvind Kejriwal as its chief minister.
3) Hung house 1: no one wins enough
This is actually a very likely outcome, since the ebbing of support for the BJP doesn’t seem significant enough to wipe it out of the race. This could mean both the BJP and the AAP getting seats in the 30-33-seat range in the 70-member house, and ending up a stone’s throw away from forming the government but unable to do so without outside support. If that’s just the matter of bringing on an independent or two, that wouldn’t be so hard.
If that extra seat or two is hard to bring on board, though, defections and calculations are not entirely simply because parties will realise that Delhi is getting tired of elections and doesn’t want to see another patchwork government fall within a couple of days. It might also mean Delhi dealing with some more President’s Rule.
4) Hung house 2: the Congress surprise
This is actually the least likely outcome, since the Congress seems to have barely been anywhere in the polls or on the streets. Yet the Indian voter always manages to throw up surprises and the Congress winning a substantial number of seats, even just 10 or so, would be a huge deal.
This would force whoever makes the government to work with the Congress. The problem is, the BJP simply cannot work with its arch rival and the AAP will be incredibly reluctant to make the same mistake that led to its downfall last year. The result would suggest that India’s Grand Old Party still has some fight in it. It would also definitely mean Delhi dealing with more President’s Rule.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been on a roll. Ever since getting the most seats in four different state elections in December 2013 ‒ including Delhi, although the BJP would not go on to form the government there ‒ the party has been racking up the electoral wins: a massive victory in the Lok Sabha polls, wins in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, and a surprisingly strong show in Jammu and Kashmir.
Delhi, most unexpectedly, turns out to be the party’s first real test. Polls indicate that the Aam Aadmi Party has taken the lead, after a year of dealing with the accusations of having beat a cowardly retreat the last time it formed the state government in 2013. But the numbers are still tight enough to suggest that any of four outcomes is possible.
1) BJP wins outright
This shouldn’t be surprising, yet it would be. The BJP actually won the most number of seats in Delhi in the previous polls, then strengthened its vote share to a whopping 46% in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and began as the clear front-runner here. ABP-Nielsen’s polls in November suggested it was most popular choice by a huge margin But the most recent projections actually give it fewer seats than the AAP.
What’s at stake is BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to field as the chief ministerial candidate an outsider and a big name, former Indian Police Service officer Kiran Bedi. The decision appears to have been a mistake: it gave the media a focal point other than just the popularity of the PM. Because Bedi was already inspiring unhappiness within the party, that was easily exacerbated.
But if the BJP wins nevertheless, it will only further cement Shah’s image as a master strategist and give the party a huge amount of political leverage going into the other major election of the year, in Bihar. It would also mean Delhi dealing with Kiran Bedi as its CM.
2) AAP wins outright
This should be surprising, yet it might not be. Opinion polls are leaning AAP’s way, and the party has been projecting itself as an outright winner. This result would be very significant for the national political scene, because it will be the first serious loss for the Shah-Modi combine in years, that too right under their noses.
AAP’s victory would be a testament to the Indian voter’s ability to forgive and give parties another chance, while entirely upending the BJP’s approach, because it would also prove that the Shah-Modi set-up is fallible. The party has sought to insist this election won’t be a referendum on the Modi government and cannot dent his popularity nationwide, yet it splashed exactly that record on front-page ads across Delhi’s newspaper the day before the elections.
And if they were calling the party one full of dramebaazes before, just wait for an AAP state government to deal with the Modi-run Centre. It would also mean Delhi dealing with Arvind Kejriwal as its chief minister.
3) Hung house 1: no one wins enough
This is actually a very likely outcome, since the ebbing of support for the BJP doesn’t seem significant enough to wipe it out of the race. This could mean both the BJP and the AAP getting seats in the 30-33-seat range in the 70-member house, and ending up a stone’s throw away from forming the government but unable to do so without outside support. If that’s just the matter of bringing on an independent or two, that wouldn’t be so hard.
If that extra seat or two is hard to bring on board, though, defections and calculations are not entirely simply because parties will realise that Delhi is getting tired of elections and doesn’t want to see another patchwork government fall within a couple of days. It might also mean Delhi dealing with some more President’s Rule.
4) Hung house 2: the Congress surprise
This is actually the least likely outcome, since the Congress seems to have barely been anywhere in the polls or on the streets. Yet the Indian voter always manages to throw up surprises and the Congress winning a substantial number of seats, even just 10 or so, would be a huge deal.
This would force whoever makes the government to work with the Congress. The problem is, the BJP simply cannot work with its arch rival and the AAP will be incredibly reluctant to make the same mistake that led to its downfall last year. The result would suggest that India’s Grand Old Party still has some fight in it. It would also definitely mean Delhi dealing with more President’s Rule.
You’ve read Scroll.
Now help sustain it
Scroll is funded by readers, not corporate owners. If you believe our work matters, support our newsroom. Become a member today!
We’re not driven by clicks or corporate interests – just honest, independent reporting. Keep us going. Support Scroll today!