While there is a raging debate on in Delhi over whether it will be a Bharatiya Janata Party or an Aam Admi Party victory in Saturday's assembly poll, there is complete unanimity among the voters that the Indian National Congress has been squeezed out in this election.
The outcome of the Delhi election has far-reaching implications for the Congress. If the party is obliterated, as all poll surveys suggest, the Congress could well be looking at a long spell in political oblivion in the capital, just as in the case of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where it failed to recover ground after it ceded space to regional parties or a third force.
The Congress had got a shock when it was reduced to a mere eight seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly in the 2013 election after three consecutive terms in power. The defeat was then attributed to anti-incumbency, the United Progressive Alliance government’s poor performance, the BJP’s improved position and the surprise splash made by the newbie Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP.
A mistaken calculation
Having been decimated in the last election, the Congress had gone along with the BJP to extend central rule in Delhi as it believed the electorate would forget its transgressions during this period and its Delhi unit could use this time to put its own house in order. The Congress was also convinced that by the time the next election was held, it would have recovered sufficiently to emerge as a strong opposition force since a discredited Aam Admi Party would have withered away by then.
But unfortunately for the Congress, it has failed to bounce back even 13 months after its last electoral rout. Much to the party’s consternation, it has realised that the people of Delhi were in no hurry to forgive, while its Delhi unit remained in disarray. But, above all, a stubborn AAP just refused to go away. Instead of the Congress, it was Arvind Kejriwal who used this time to regroup, raise funds and reach out to the people with his party’s agenda.
The Congress realised it had a serious challenge on hand when the election was announced. Its workers were demoralised and the party organisation was virtually non-existent. Moreover, it was not looked upon as a serious contender in this election. “We were not considered a player in this election… our main task was to establish that this was not a straight fight between the BJP and AAP and that the Congress was also in contention,” remarked a senior Congress office-bearer.
Last-minute decision
With the BJP and AAP projecting strong chief ministerial candidates, a nervous Congress belatedly decided to field former union minister Ajay Maken as the party’s face while party vice-president Rahul Gandhi was roped in for the campaign in a last-ditch effort to enthuse the rank and file.
But as the election day drew closer, it became abundantly clear that these efforts had not paid off. This was borne out by the recurring refrain in Delhi, “Congress ab khattam ho gayi hai [the Congress is now finished]". The party’s biggest worry has been the erosion in its traditional support base among the scheduled castes, slum dwellers, resettlement colonies and the minorities, which have shifted their allegiance to Kejriwal’s outfit. “These were our voters but they have moved away to the AAP now,” said a glum-faced Delhi Congress leader.
While the underclass is rooting for AAP because of its promise to bring down water and power tariffs, the minorities are backing the new party as they believe it is better placed to defeat the BJP. Former chief minister Sheila Dikshit had succeeded in winning over the middle classes when she was in power, but this section abandoned the Congress in the 2013 election and has shown no signs of shifting loyalties. The Congress vote share has already come down from 48% to 24.55% in the 2013 poll and is set to plummet further in this election, reducing the party to a distant and poor third position.
Bleak prospects
The Congress has reasons to be worried. The party can hope to bounce back in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it is in direct contest with the BJP and is the only available alternate for the voter. However, a look at the party’s performance over the past two-and-a-half decades shows that it is not just difficult, but impossible, for the Congress to recover in states when its support base shifts to a regional party and its vote share drops to less than 20 per cent.
Once a leading force in the electorally-crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has been a bit player here for the past 25 years as its support base of upper castes, Dalits and minorities has moved away to the BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party, respectively. It is the same story in Bihar where the Congress was upstaged by the Janata Dal (U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Former Congress leader Mamata Banerjee took over the party’s space in West Bengal and in Odisha the Congress lost out to the Biju Janata Dal. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has been dependent on an alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK. More recently, the Congress was pushed to the margins by the Telugu Desam Party, the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi and the YSR Congress in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
And if the poll surveys are any indication, the Congress is headed in the same direction in Delhi.
The outcome of the Delhi election has far-reaching implications for the Congress. If the party is obliterated, as all poll surveys suggest, the Congress could well be looking at a long spell in political oblivion in the capital, just as in the case of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where it failed to recover ground after it ceded space to regional parties or a third force.
The Congress had got a shock when it was reduced to a mere eight seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly in the 2013 election after three consecutive terms in power. The defeat was then attributed to anti-incumbency, the United Progressive Alliance government’s poor performance, the BJP’s improved position and the surprise splash made by the newbie Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP.
A mistaken calculation
Having been decimated in the last election, the Congress had gone along with the BJP to extend central rule in Delhi as it believed the electorate would forget its transgressions during this period and its Delhi unit could use this time to put its own house in order. The Congress was also convinced that by the time the next election was held, it would have recovered sufficiently to emerge as a strong opposition force since a discredited Aam Admi Party would have withered away by then.
But unfortunately for the Congress, it has failed to bounce back even 13 months after its last electoral rout. Much to the party’s consternation, it has realised that the people of Delhi were in no hurry to forgive, while its Delhi unit remained in disarray. But, above all, a stubborn AAP just refused to go away. Instead of the Congress, it was Arvind Kejriwal who used this time to regroup, raise funds and reach out to the people with his party’s agenda.
The Congress realised it had a serious challenge on hand when the election was announced. Its workers were demoralised and the party organisation was virtually non-existent. Moreover, it was not looked upon as a serious contender in this election. “We were not considered a player in this election… our main task was to establish that this was not a straight fight between the BJP and AAP and that the Congress was also in contention,” remarked a senior Congress office-bearer.
Last-minute decision
With the BJP and AAP projecting strong chief ministerial candidates, a nervous Congress belatedly decided to field former union minister Ajay Maken as the party’s face while party vice-president Rahul Gandhi was roped in for the campaign in a last-ditch effort to enthuse the rank and file.
But as the election day drew closer, it became abundantly clear that these efforts had not paid off. This was borne out by the recurring refrain in Delhi, “Congress ab khattam ho gayi hai [the Congress is now finished]". The party’s biggest worry has been the erosion in its traditional support base among the scheduled castes, slum dwellers, resettlement colonies and the minorities, which have shifted their allegiance to Kejriwal’s outfit. “These were our voters but they have moved away to the AAP now,” said a glum-faced Delhi Congress leader.
While the underclass is rooting for AAP because of its promise to bring down water and power tariffs, the minorities are backing the new party as they believe it is better placed to defeat the BJP. Former chief minister Sheila Dikshit had succeeded in winning over the middle classes when she was in power, but this section abandoned the Congress in the 2013 election and has shown no signs of shifting loyalties. The Congress vote share has already come down from 48% to 24.55% in the 2013 poll and is set to plummet further in this election, reducing the party to a distant and poor third position.
Bleak prospects
The Congress has reasons to be worried. The party can hope to bounce back in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it is in direct contest with the BJP and is the only available alternate for the voter. However, a look at the party’s performance over the past two-and-a-half decades shows that it is not just difficult, but impossible, for the Congress to recover in states when its support base shifts to a regional party and its vote share drops to less than 20 per cent.
Once a leading force in the electorally-crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has been a bit player here for the past 25 years as its support base of upper castes, Dalits and minorities has moved away to the BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party, respectively. It is the same story in Bihar where the Congress was upstaged by the Janata Dal (U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Former Congress leader Mamata Banerjee took over the party’s space in West Bengal and in Odisha the Congress lost out to the Biju Janata Dal. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has been dependent on an alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK. More recently, the Congress was pushed to the margins by the Telugu Desam Party, the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi and the YSR Congress in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
And if the poll surveys are any indication, the Congress is headed in the same direction in Delhi.
You’ve read Scroll.
Now help sustain it
Scroll is funded by readers, not corporate owners. If you believe our work matters, support our newsroom. Become a member today!
We’re not driven by clicks or corporate interests – just honest, independent reporting. Keep us going. Support Scroll today!