It might not seem obvious, considering how much his domestic political opponents have managed to block during US President Barack Obama's tenure, but this foreign policy has actually been a success. Libya, Egypt and the Israel-Palestine issue might not have gone as far as Obama would have liked. But from opening up a conversation with Iran to unclenching the fist aimed at Cuba and even the still-in-progress pivot to Asia, Obama's foreign policy legacy is looking bright.
India, however, doesn't really fit into all of this. Much of Obama's tenure in the White House was accompanied by the steady feeling that Indo-US relations are simply coasting, without any grand vision. This felt starker because of the landmark civil nuclear agreement that Bush signed with India. Not only has the Obama administration, talking to two different regimes in India over the past six years, been unable to come up with anything that could rival that agreement, it has been unable to implement the specifics of that deal itself (although the US would claim that India's laws are the sticking point).
Worse, in addition to failing to unveil any sort of new initiative that would invigorate the partnership between, as the cliches never fail to remind us, the world’s largest and its oldest democracies, Obama also was in power during one of the worst periods in the relationship. The arrest and treatment doled out to Devyani Khobragade, an Indian diplomat who was accused of visa fraud and perjury, may not have been endorsed by the White House but it was seen as a sign of the high-handed approach with which the US State Department has always taken with India.
Raining on the parade
Now, as Obama enters his final two years, things are back to the “no real vision” phase of the relationship. Some have argued that this is a good thing, suggesting that the US president’s visit on Republic Day will focus more on deliverables rather than just announcements. Others think that, for all the hullabaloo that his impending arrival is causing in Delhi, not much is actually going to be achieved. “He’s going to India basically for a parade and a visit to the Taj Mahal,” said Julie Pace of the Associated Press.
An indication of this was the lack of any mention of India in the annual State of the Union address that Obama just gave. The speech is, of course, meant to be a domestic one and mentions of other countries ‒China, Pakistan and Afghanistan were all name-called ‒ tend to be in a negative light. As such, it’s not surprising that India didn’t get mentioned. Yet, commentators in both countries pounced on this fact as if it revealed much about the relationship, when in fact their commentary and the search for such tangential validation, was more revelatory than any mention might have been.
By and large, if you look at it, America is still not sure what to do with India. The country was always wary of India’s messy democracy, only somewhat ironically preferring to deal with dictatorial strongmen the world over. US businesses are unhappy with India’s willingness to take away jobs and what they see as a failure to enforce intellectual property rights. And defence cooperation, while comprehensive and large, remains tentative, only because India has always been both protectionist and unwilling to be seen as firmly in the US camp. As Indian diplomats will remind you, China is on India’s borders, not America’s.
Who’s up next?
All this means Obama is most likely to simply stay the course over the final two years of his presidency. Incremental progress will be made on the broad areas of cooperation and dispute, from climate change to defence to intellectual property rights, whereas a truly risky big announcement will be altogether surprising. Obama’s foreign policy legacy is assured, so there is no need to try and add yet another potentially destabilising feather to his cap.
The next American president, however, will have a very different challenge. For starters, India’s relationship with China is in an interesting phase, where New Delhi would like Beijing’s investment but has been less supine on the border issue. In addition, the US is pulling out of Afghanistan, a move that will seriously destabilise the South Asian region, leaving a vacuum that New Delhi would like to fill while giving Pakistan nightmares.
Most importantly, the leadership in Delhi has changed, and radically at that. Whoever replaces Obama in the White House, Democrat or Republican, will want to ensure they have a good relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when India is opening up to investment and asserting itself in a bigger way internationally. Failure to do so could have serious repercussions for an American president in a decade where the world is likely to pivot further towards Asia, whether the White House actually decides to do it or not.
India, however, doesn't really fit into all of this. Much of Obama's tenure in the White House was accompanied by the steady feeling that Indo-US relations are simply coasting, without any grand vision. This felt starker because of the landmark civil nuclear agreement that Bush signed with India. Not only has the Obama administration, talking to two different regimes in India over the past six years, been unable to come up with anything that could rival that agreement, it has been unable to implement the specifics of that deal itself (although the US would claim that India's laws are the sticking point).
Worse, in addition to failing to unveil any sort of new initiative that would invigorate the partnership between, as the cliches never fail to remind us, the world’s largest and its oldest democracies, Obama also was in power during one of the worst periods in the relationship. The arrest and treatment doled out to Devyani Khobragade, an Indian diplomat who was accused of visa fraud and perjury, may not have been endorsed by the White House but it was seen as a sign of the high-handed approach with which the US State Department has always taken with India.
Raining on the parade
Now, as Obama enters his final two years, things are back to the “no real vision” phase of the relationship. Some have argued that this is a good thing, suggesting that the US president’s visit on Republic Day will focus more on deliverables rather than just announcements. Others think that, for all the hullabaloo that his impending arrival is causing in Delhi, not much is actually going to be achieved. “He’s going to India basically for a parade and a visit to the Taj Mahal,” said Julie Pace of the Associated Press.
An indication of this was the lack of any mention of India in the annual State of the Union address that Obama just gave. The speech is, of course, meant to be a domestic one and mentions of other countries ‒China, Pakistan and Afghanistan were all name-called ‒ tend to be in a negative light. As such, it’s not surprising that India didn’t get mentioned. Yet, commentators in both countries pounced on this fact as if it revealed much about the relationship, when in fact their commentary and the search for such tangential validation, was more revelatory than any mention might have been.
By and large, if you look at it, America is still not sure what to do with India. The country was always wary of India’s messy democracy, only somewhat ironically preferring to deal with dictatorial strongmen the world over. US businesses are unhappy with India’s willingness to take away jobs and what they see as a failure to enforce intellectual property rights. And defence cooperation, while comprehensive and large, remains tentative, only because India has always been both protectionist and unwilling to be seen as firmly in the US camp. As Indian diplomats will remind you, China is on India’s borders, not America’s.
Who’s up next?
All this means Obama is most likely to simply stay the course over the final two years of his presidency. Incremental progress will be made on the broad areas of cooperation and dispute, from climate change to defence to intellectual property rights, whereas a truly risky big announcement will be altogether surprising. Obama’s foreign policy legacy is assured, so there is no need to try and add yet another potentially destabilising feather to his cap.
The next American president, however, will have a very different challenge. For starters, India’s relationship with China is in an interesting phase, where New Delhi would like Beijing’s investment but has been less supine on the border issue. In addition, the US is pulling out of Afghanistan, a move that will seriously destabilise the South Asian region, leaving a vacuum that New Delhi would like to fill while giving Pakistan nightmares.
Most importantly, the leadership in Delhi has changed, and radically at that. Whoever replaces Obama in the White House, Democrat or Republican, will want to ensure they have a good relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when India is opening up to investment and asserting itself in a bigger way internationally. Failure to do so could have serious repercussions for an American president in a decade where the world is likely to pivot further towards Asia, whether the White House actually decides to do it or not.
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