As a newly-inducted Kiran Bedi leads the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Delhi Assembly elections and outraged insiders vent their anger, the biggest question in the saffron party today is: what happens if Amit Shah’s gamble of banking on an “outsider” in the national capital fails?

BJP insiders are unanimous in the view that a victory in Delhi would give a massive boost to the party’s confidence in the politically crucial state of Bihar, where elections are due in November this year, and silence even the remaining vestiges of opposition to party president Shah. A defeat in Delhi, however, may not only halt the party’s expansion process and strip it of its aura of invincibility, it may also undermine the authority of Shah – if not Prime Minister Narendra Modi – in the party.

That Delhi polls are crucial for the party is no secret. Shah himself pointed this out while addressing a meeting of the BJP’s booth in-charges on January 18: “This election is like our examination.” He also underlined the significance he attaches to a win in Delhi. “If we succeed in Delhi elections, then I am confident we will also emerge victorious in Bihar and win more than 185 seats in that state.”

According to a senior BJP leader, the party is mulling replicating the Delhi experiment in Bihar, where its unit is equally faction-ridden and lacking the image of a united force, and hence in need of a new face to lead the outfit in the elections.

Threatened and angry

But that will happen only if the BJP, under Bedi, wins the elections in Delhi. A failure in the February 7 “examination” – which cannot be ruled out given the way it has been losing ground to Aam Aadmi Party, as shown in opinion polls – would open up a Pandora’s box.

Already, not only are Delhi BJP leaders seething with discontent, but the buzz about the possibility of a Delhi-like move in Bihar has made the traditional stakeholders in Bihar party unit also feel threatened.

“There is total confusion in the state party,” said a senior BJP leader in Bihar. “The decision not to harness Modiji’s image in the Delhi elections has created a new political scenario for us too. In Delhi, the party is banking on the image of Kiran Bedi, who had been an outsider till a few days ago. This is unheard of in the BJP, which is an organisation-based party where workers become leaders over time. Amit Shah has no moral authority to blame Delhi leaders for being angry with the decision to induct Bedi.”

About the state of affairs in the party’s Bihar unit after the recent developments in Delhi, the BJP leader said: “Like Amit Shah, we are keenly watching the elections in Delhi.”

BJP insiders both in Delhi and Bihar feel that a loss in Delhi would set back Shah’s authority in the party. The BJP national president, who is seen as the architect of Bedi’s induction as the party’s chief ministerial candidate, is already facing much criticism from the Delhi unit. His move is being seen as yet another reflection of the ruthlessness with which he rules the party and which has alienated several senior BJP leaders and their supporters.