Rumour mills were set into frenzied motion last week when Dr Harsh Vardhan, a senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party with a clean image, was removed as the Union minister of health and family welfare in the cabinet reshuffle. Was it because of the ENT surgeon’s anti-tobacco decisions? Did it have anything to do with the controversial removal of a whistle-blower from a Delhi hospital? Or was it because BJP’s former chief ministerial candidate in Delhi is likely to go back to state politics?

Whatever the reason, Vardhan’s return to Delhi politics may be crucial for the BJP in the Delhi assembly elections scheduled early next year.

A recent ABP-Nielsen opinion poll said the BJP will win 46 out of the total 70 seats. Its primary rival in the fray, the Aam Aadmi Party, will clinch 18 seats and the Congress will get just 5.

Respondents divided

More notably, the poll revealed that 39% of Delhi’s electorate wanted AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal as the next chief minister – more than the 38% who wanted Vardhan in the top job. Sixty one per cent of the opinion poll’s respondents were satisfied with Kejriwal’s work during his 49-day stint as Delhi chief minister before he ended up resigning over the Jan Lokpal Bill.

“The BJP cannot undermine the support that the Aam Aadmi Party still enjoys in the capital,” said political commentator Shiv Visvanathan.

As per the opinion poll, the BJP will get 38% of the vote share in the elections and the AAP 26%.

“If the BJP is unable to appoint a strong chief ministerial candidate, these numbers could turn in AAP’s favour,” Visvanathan said. “So, bringing Dr Harsh Vardhan back could be a smart move.”

Relatable candidate

Other than Vardhan, BJP has few options. Its Delhi unit president Satish Upadhyay is fairly new in Delhi’s political arena and not well known. Its former Janakpuri MLA Jagdish Mukhi, a senior leader who has been pushing himself as a chief ministerial candidate, is unpopular among the party cadre for his highhandedness. In the opinion poll, just 5% of the respondents said they wanted Mukhi as the next chief minister and only 4% wanted to see Upadhyay in the chair.

“Satishji can form the government if the BJP wins clear majority,” said a BJP leader. “But he is not the person to lead in a fresh election. For that, the BJP needs a known face who the people can relate to.”

In the last assembly elections, held in December 2013, the BJP won 31 seats, making it the single largest party. This feat, political commentators said, was enabled by Vardhan’s clean image.