Diplomatese is excellent at hiding contexts, especially for the lay person. This is why most people wouldn’t understand the difference between a summit-level or strategic partnership or be able to gauge the level of sincerity when a foreign leader gives a statement talking about “warm ties” or “genuine appreciation”.
Take Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement before heading out on his 10-day, three-country tour, during which he is expected to attend three different summits and meet around 40 foreign leaders. Modi laid out his expectations for the first leg of the tour in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, where he will be attending the India-Association of South East Nations summit on Wednesday.
“ASEAN is at the core of our Act East Policy and at the centre of our dream of an Asian century, characterised by cooperation and integration,” Modi said.
Those words make it seem like India has a very close relationship with the countries that make up ASEAN, enough that they form the basis of Modi’s updated version of a decades-old foreign policy initiative to integrate better with east Asia. It is also clearly untrue.
There is no question that, at least at the moment, China and Japan are at the core of India’s policy towards the east, even if ASEAN and other countries in the region and elsewhere are being used as ways of carrying out this policy.
What’s more worrying though, is that it is also likely true on the other side. ASEAN has very close ties with India, in a relationship that goes back several decades. But the actual amount of connectivity and trade between the countries is a lot less than one would expect, and easily outmatched by anything China can offer.
There’s no doubt that trade between India and the ASEAN nations has gone up in the last few decades, by over 20 times in the last 20 years according to the MInistry of External Affairs. It currently stands at $79.6 billion as of last year with the hope of reaching $100 billion by 2015.
While this may seem impressive, it’s a lot smaller than it should be for a block that India believes is at the core of its Act East policy. Indo-ASEAN trade accounts for 10% of all Indian trade, which might be a respectable amount, even though it’s referring to financial ties with 10 states that should be a huge feature in our economy. As a share of ASEAN’s total trade, however, India counts for only 3%. China's accounts for much more, up to 11% of all ASEAN trade, as its largest trading partner.
Ceding space
And this goes beyond trade to other issues like connectivity and tourism as well. What should be a much closer relationship, based on proximity alone, is terribly undervalued. Again, from a geopolitical perspective, this means India has been ceding space to China.
According to the Observer Research Foundation’s C Raja Mohan, this is the result of an Indian reluctance to open up to the east. “While Southeast Asia warmly welcomed India, it has found Delhi’s performance in Asean and related Asian institutions underwhelming,” Mohan writes. “In the name of protecting the poor at home, solidarity with the developing world and standing up against the West, both parties have taken positions that have put India at risk of being left out of the new economic dynamism in Asia.”
It is this baggage that Modi will be carrying with him as he approaches both the ASEAN summit as well as the East Asia meet that is set to follow.
Take Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement before heading out on his 10-day, three-country tour, during which he is expected to attend three different summits and meet around 40 foreign leaders. Modi laid out his expectations for the first leg of the tour in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, where he will be attending the India-Association of South East Nations summit on Wednesday.
“ASEAN is at the core of our Act East Policy and at the centre of our dream of an Asian century, characterised by cooperation and integration,” Modi said.
Those words make it seem like India has a very close relationship with the countries that make up ASEAN, enough that they form the basis of Modi’s updated version of a decades-old foreign policy initiative to integrate better with east Asia. It is also clearly untrue.
There is no question that, at least at the moment, China and Japan are at the core of India’s policy towards the east, even if ASEAN and other countries in the region and elsewhere are being used as ways of carrying out this policy.
What’s more worrying though, is that it is also likely true on the other side. ASEAN has very close ties with India, in a relationship that goes back several decades. But the actual amount of connectivity and trade between the countries is a lot less than one would expect, and easily outmatched by anything China can offer.
There’s no doubt that trade between India and the ASEAN nations has gone up in the last few decades, by over 20 times in the last 20 years according to the MInistry of External Affairs. It currently stands at $79.6 billion as of last year with the hope of reaching $100 billion by 2015.
While this may seem impressive, it’s a lot smaller than it should be for a block that India believes is at the core of its Act East policy. Indo-ASEAN trade accounts for 10% of all Indian trade, which might be a respectable amount, even though it’s referring to financial ties with 10 states that should be a huge feature in our economy. As a share of ASEAN’s total trade, however, India counts for only 3%. China's accounts for much more, up to 11% of all ASEAN trade, as its largest trading partner.
Ceding space
And this goes beyond trade to other issues like connectivity and tourism as well. What should be a much closer relationship, based on proximity alone, is terribly undervalued. Again, from a geopolitical perspective, this means India has been ceding space to China.
According to the Observer Research Foundation’s C Raja Mohan, this is the result of an Indian reluctance to open up to the east. “While Southeast Asia warmly welcomed India, it has found Delhi’s performance in Asean and related Asian institutions underwhelming,” Mohan writes. “In the name of protecting the poor at home, solidarity with the developing world and standing up against the West, both parties have taken positions that have put India at risk of being left out of the new economic dynamism in Asia.”
It is this baggage that Modi will be carrying with him as he approaches both the ASEAN summit as well as the East Asia meet that is set to follow.
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