The end of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decades-old political alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra has dominated headlines for much of the last month. But in Haryana, the crumbling of an important alliance went off with much less fanfare, and a little more vitriol.

“Betrayal is in the nature of the BJP,” said Kuldeep Bishnoi, head of the Haryana Janhit Congress, which had been a part of the National Democratic Alliance during this year’s general elections. Instead, his outfit decided to go with a new outfit called the Jan Chetna Party to take on the BJP. Also in the fight: the incumbent Congress party, the BJP and the Indian National Lok Dal.

It might not be as crucial of a battle as Maharashtra’s, but the contest for the 90 seats in Haryana has no shortage of storylines.

Expansive BJP

The key question for almost any electoral battle that has taken place since Narendra Modi’s massive victory in May has been, simply, how well is the BJP going to do? One of the key themes for the split in Maharashtra was the desire of many BJP workers to see the party expanding, unfettered by an alliance partner.

Haryana is no different. Before the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress held nine of the state's ten Lok Sabha seats. After the Modi wave, the BJP managed to wrest seven seats, with the Indian National Lok Dal grabbing two and the Congress only retaining one. Those victories, the scale of the BJP’s win nationally and the party’s 34% vote share, convinced the leaders to think about fighting these elections without an alliance partner.

Complicated ties

That decision has left the playing field open for a couple of former partners of the BJP, both of which have a very complicated relationship with the saffron party. Its most recent partner, the Haryana Janhit Congress, has made its anti-BJP feelings clear. Instead, the HJC has tied up with the Jan Chetna Party, which was founded by the former Congress union minister Venod Sharma. The new outfit is unlikely to make a large dent in the numbers, but in any multi-cornered contest, even small players can have big impacts.

Then there’s the Indian National Lok Dal, the primary opposition party in Haryana, which endorsed Modi during the national elections and nearly ended up in the National Democratic Alliance then. The Indian National Lok Dal’s relationship with the BJP is interesting not only because it is a former alliance partner, but also because of its close familial connection with the Shiromani Akali Dal, a key NDA partner. The Shiromani Akali Dal is contesting in two assembly seats against the BJP, and also actively campaigning for the Indian National Lok Dal, even though those candidates will be up against its own alliance partner at the Centre.

Both those parties and the BJP have announced their clear intention to go it entirely alone, and have backed this up by taking potshots at each other as the campaign goes on. Yet, with no one quite sure how much the BJP’s national victory will influence the assembly polls, the chances of renewed alliances after elections is never out of the question.

Jat vote

Ever since its creation in 1966, when it was carved out of Punjab, Haryana politics has been dominated by Jats. Bansi Lal, Bhajan Lal, Devi Lal, all three former chief ministers, tower over most other players in the state’s history, and to this day their progeny are playing key roles.

With Jats forming around 27% of the state’s population, the decision within the community – which is said to vote en bloc – on who to support  is crucial. If Jats in crucial areas settle on one party to support, it would be hard for that outfit to lose. On the other hand, if there is no clarity and the community is split, the state might end up needing post-poll reconfigurations if it is to have a stable government. The Indian National Lok Dal's leaders, former chief minister Om Prakash Chautala, and his son Abhay – who were last year found guilty of corruption and given decade-long sentences – have always projected themselves as the leaders of the Jats. Rather than be sullied by the conviction, though, the two have used their legal troubles to earn sympathy from their Jat votebanks by claiming that the cases were politically motivated. Having managed to get medical bail earlier in the year, Om Prakash Chautala has been holding rallies in Haryana and making this exact sympathy pitch, but those actions have earned the ire of the Delhi High Court which has asked him to appear on Friday afternoon to explain his campaigning.

Incumbency factor

And then there’s the Congress. The incumbent government, under Bhupinder Singh Hooda, might not be facing the leadership concerns that the national party is dealing with, but its chances are nevertheless grim. Hooda has been running a campaign selling his party as the respectable, decent one, a clear reference to the leaders of the Indian National Lok Dal who are currently in jail and cannot contest the polls.

But it will be hard for the populace to think about the “decent” Congress so soon after a general election in which the party seemed to have been wiped out. And even sniping at the Indian National Lok Dal leaders who are behind bars might not work: at least within the Jat community, their imprisonment has brought out a lot of sympathy, coupled with the belief that the previous Congress government was targeting the leadership.

Poll outlook

Finally, the issues. The Congress is facing serious anti-incumbency after 10 years at the helm, many of which were dogged by corruption allegations and accusations of the special treatment doled out to Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s son-in-law Robert Vadra in land allotments. The BJP will be hoping that the Modi wave, which fuelled it to power nationally, still holds, though opponents are beginning to talk about unemployment and price rise. The  Indian National Lok Dal’s Chautalas have been talking about Congress misrule, while also hinting at a grander anti-Modi alliance that is reminiscent of the Janata Party.