O Panneerselvam’s daily routine as New Tamil Nadu chief minister is going to be a little different from the last time he occupied the post. In 2001, Paneerselvam would begin his day visiting the house of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa, where all the major decisions would be made. When he did eventually amble into the CM’s office, all he did was read the newspapers and order some snacks.
This time around, the first part of the routine will have to be altered. For the moment at least, ex-Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa is lodged in a jail in Bangalore, having been convicted on corruption charges. Although she intends to appeal the verdict, and ask for bail, it will certainly be a little harder for her to run the state by remote control.
Which leaves Paneerselvam in a difficult place.
The chief minister kept a low profile when he briefly occupied the post in 2001-'02, after Jayalalithaa’s first conviction – later overturned – because he didn’t want anyone to say he was becoming a threat to the real boss. Even today, though he has been the state’s finance minister and number 2, a popular joke suggests that he still owns the tea stall that he used to run – as a fallback, because other than “Amma” there are no powerful leaders in the AIADMK.
Where does that leave Tamil Nadu?
Imagine if Narendra Modi was suddenly barred from politics tomorrow. It would leave a Bharatiya Janata Party in disarray, but without necessarily being a boost to the Congress, to whom committed saffron voters would be likely to shift loyalties. In this hypothetical, the advantage would accrue to smaller players.
Tamil Nadu is in a very similar situation. Assuming Jayalalithaa’s conviction is not stayed by the Karnataka High Court – unlikely, if you go by precedent – the former CM is currently on track to spend four years in prison, and is then barred from contesting elections for another six years. This doesn’t preclude Jayalalithaa from running Tamil Nadu by remote control and it’s not quite the worst position she’s been in.
That was in 1995, after the opulent wedding of her foster son, which spurred on those hoping to investigate her disproportionate assets and turned the public against the AIADMK. The elections that followed next year saw Jayalalithaa lose her own seat, while the party only picked up four of 234 assembly seats.
The AIADMK is in a much stronger position right now, with 150 of the 234 seats in the state assembly and 37 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu. The party had a 44% vote share in Tamil Nadu in this year’s general elections, giving it almost as many seats as the Congress party has across the country. In addition, its chief rival, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, lost all 18 Lok Sabha seats they held, and has been left with no Members of Parliament in the lower house.
Like the Congress at the Centre, the DMK doesn’t seem to have responded to its massive defeat in the elections. The party’s succession battle has still not been resolved. With assembly elections less than two years away, and party patriarch M Karunanidhi facing serious health problems, the DMK might not have enough time to decide who will ultimately lead the party.
That leaves a clutch of smaller, community-based parties, like the Vaiko-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Captain Vijaykanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and S Ramadoss’ Paatali Makkal Katchal, all of which were part of a rainbow alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party during the Lok Sabha elections. But they will be constrained by the limits of community-based politics.
The real opportunity awaits the BJP, which picked up one Lok Sabha seat in the state in this year’s polls and a vote share of 5.5%, more than any of the regional Tamil Nadu parties it had allied with.
You can never write Jayalalithaa off, of course. There are lots of second, third and fourth acts in Indian politics and the 66-year-old politician has proved she can claw her way back to the top from the most adverse reverses. But after this bitter 18-year battle, and a potentially decade-long exile from politics looming ahead, it’s unclear how she will find a way out this time.
This time around, the first part of the routine will have to be altered. For the moment at least, ex-Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalithaa is lodged in a jail in Bangalore, having been convicted on corruption charges. Although she intends to appeal the verdict, and ask for bail, it will certainly be a little harder for her to run the state by remote control.
Which leaves Paneerselvam in a difficult place.
The chief minister kept a low profile when he briefly occupied the post in 2001-'02, after Jayalalithaa’s first conviction – later overturned – because he didn’t want anyone to say he was becoming a threat to the real boss. Even today, though he has been the state’s finance minister and number 2, a popular joke suggests that he still owns the tea stall that he used to run – as a fallback, because other than “Amma” there are no powerful leaders in the AIADMK.
Where does that leave Tamil Nadu?
Imagine if Narendra Modi was suddenly barred from politics tomorrow. It would leave a Bharatiya Janata Party in disarray, but without necessarily being a boost to the Congress, to whom committed saffron voters would be likely to shift loyalties. In this hypothetical, the advantage would accrue to smaller players.
Tamil Nadu is in a very similar situation. Assuming Jayalalithaa’s conviction is not stayed by the Karnataka High Court – unlikely, if you go by precedent – the former CM is currently on track to spend four years in prison, and is then barred from contesting elections for another six years. This doesn’t preclude Jayalalithaa from running Tamil Nadu by remote control and it’s not quite the worst position she’s been in.
That was in 1995, after the opulent wedding of her foster son, which spurred on those hoping to investigate her disproportionate assets and turned the public against the AIADMK. The elections that followed next year saw Jayalalithaa lose her own seat, while the party only picked up four of 234 assembly seats.
The AIADMK is in a much stronger position right now, with 150 of the 234 seats in the state assembly and 37 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu. The party had a 44% vote share in Tamil Nadu in this year’s general elections, giving it almost as many seats as the Congress party has across the country. In addition, its chief rival, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, lost all 18 Lok Sabha seats they held, and has been left with no Members of Parliament in the lower house.
Like the Congress at the Centre, the DMK doesn’t seem to have responded to its massive defeat in the elections. The party’s succession battle has still not been resolved. With assembly elections less than two years away, and party patriarch M Karunanidhi facing serious health problems, the DMK might not have enough time to decide who will ultimately lead the party.
That leaves a clutch of smaller, community-based parties, like the Vaiko-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Captain Vijaykanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and S Ramadoss’ Paatali Makkal Katchal, all of which were part of a rainbow alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party during the Lok Sabha elections. But they will be constrained by the limits of community-based politics.
The real opportunity awaits the BJP, which picked up one Lok Sabha seat in the state in this year’s polls and a vote share of 5.5%, more than any of the regional Tamil Nadu parties it had allied with.
You can never write Jayalalithaa off, of course. There are lots of second, third and fourth acts in Indian politics and the 66-year-old politician has proved she can claw her way back to the top from the most adverse reverses. But after this bitter 18-year battle, and a potentially decade-long exile from politics looming ahead, it’s unclear how she will find a way out this time.
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