Until Thursday morning, Maharashtra's October assembly elections were undeniably interesting. By Thursday evening, they had become nail-bitingly exciting. After days of wrangling about seat-sharing arrangements for the 288-member house, both the long-time coalitions in the state fell apart.

The break of the long-standing political alliance between the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which was announced first, is partly due to ambition and partly to a lack of chemistry. In retrospect, the mating dance as the two tried to work out a seat-sharing agreement looks half-hearted and destined to fail. From the beginning, neither side was serious about making it work. The Sena is not willing to offer what the BJP want – an equal number seats – while the BJP, under new stewardship, does not want to play junior partner to its regional ally anymore.

In the past, seat arrangements used to be worked out over a cup of tea between leaders from both sides. Bal Thackeray, once the uncontested supremo of the Sena, was happy to meet with Pramod Mahajan though he was not the BJP president, because they were comfortable with each other. More important, the canny Mahajan, fully aware that the BJP, while a national level party, was nowhere as entrenched as the Sena in Maharashtra, was content with far less seats.

That suited both parties fine, as Bal Thackeray's grandson Aaditya suggested in this tweet.

 

New leadership

Neither of these leaders are alive. The new Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray would have happily agreed to a new equation with Gopinath Munde, Mahajan’s brother-in-law and the BJP candidate for chief ministership should the party have won. But Munde also tragically died earlier this year and the state unit of the national party did not have anyone of the stature required to take on Uddhav Thackeray.

The new BJP president Amit Shah, much like his mentor and boss Narendra Modi, does not have much time for Uddhav Thackeray, which has left the Sena man feeling slighted. Shah is working to make the BJP a formidable force all over India and Maharashtra is a cornerstone of that policy. There is confidence in the BJP that the Modi wave has not yet dissipated and the party will do well in the elections. Shah was not impressed with the Sena’s incremental offers, holding out for an equal number of seats. This was never going to happen.

The Sena's dismay was made apparent by Aaditya Thackeray, though he couldn't resist a snide swipe at the BJP.

 

Uddhav as CM?

The Shiv Sena has decided the time is ripe for a Thackeray to become chief minister. No one from the Thackeray family has ever stood for elections or held office, but Uddhav Thackeray is keen to break that tradition. To achieve this, he needs to win more seats than his former partner – that is the deal.

As long as there was this yawning gap between the number of seats they fought, the BJP could have never won more than the Sena. Now, if the BJP stands in the same number of seats, or perhaps even more, the situation could change dramatically.

The BJP has a far better strike rate than the Sena – in most elections, the former wins a greater percentage of its quota. This is what gives Amit Shah the confidence to ask for more. He is determined to install a BJP man as the chief minister. No name has been announced, but Nitin Gadkari, and state level leaders like Devendra Phadnavis and Vinod Tawde are believed to be contenders.

This most likely means that Uddhav Thackeray can forget about the chief ministership.

 The other coalition

Hours later, the ruling coalition of the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party officially fell apart, again because of differences in how they would divide seats. The ever-ambitious Pawar has calculated he is in a good position to sign up with any of the others – the Congress, the BJP or even the Sena – though it is another matter if they will want him.

However, Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan hinted that the NCP may already be considering a new pact with one of the splinters of the BJP-Sena crash.

 

Then there is Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, who is hoping for a revival, as well as the smaller caste-based parties, which have the potential to win significant seats as well.