The fight in Maharashtra between long-standing allies, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena, is now escalating. Their tussle over seat distribution, a normal pre-election affair, is now taking on a bitter, personal hue. Behind the seemingly straightforward grandstanding over who will get more seats in October's state assembly elections is rampant triumphalism on one side and a growing apprehension about the future on the other.

For nearly 25 years, the BJP and the Shiv Sena have been in a reasonably comfortable relationship. The reason for this is simple: both knew their roles in the alliance. The Sena was the “senior” partner, a tacit acknowledgement of its pre-eminent political position in Maharashtra. The BJP, despite being a national party, has had to play second fiddle to the regional power. The Sena leader Bal Thackeray had negotiated this with the BJP’s Pramod Mahajan a long time ago and at that time, it suited both. It allowed the Sena to assert its supremacy (and please Thackeray’s ego) and it gave the BJP a valuable ally as it tried to spread its footprint all over the state.

Despite the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh being headquartered in Nagpur and garnering a fair amount of support from some sections, its political wing, the BJP, was never a party of consequence in Maharashtra. Deep-rooted antipathy towards its communal approach as well as the dominance of the Maratha castes in the state's political system meant that the BJP was often dismissed as a party of Bhatts and Shetiyas (Brahmins and traders.) It had no option but to accept secondary status. In election after election, it was given a far lower share of the seats by the Sena and it could do nothing but swallow the humiliation.

Changed situation

That situation has changed. The BJP won handsomely in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra: it got 24 seats to the Sena’s 18. The party attributes this to the Modi wave and is confident that the wave still exists. Two other developments have contributed to the alienation between the two allies ‒ the death, in a road accident, of Gopinath Munde, the putative BJP chief ministerial candidate, and the appointment of Amit Shah as the BJP national president. Sena boss Uddhav Thackeray had a reasonably good personal equation with Munde, but has no one to talk to any more. Thackeray Jr hates Nitin Gadkari, the BJP's most senior leader from the state, and thinks the others are too lowly to meet with.

But it is Shah’s ascension that has finally queered the pitch. Shah has no time for the Sena, just like his mentor Narendra Modi, who made it clear during his Mumbai visits before the Lok Sabha elections that the Sena mattered little to his game plan. In his first rally a stone’s throw away from the Thackeray residence, Modi not only failed to refer to the senior Thackeray but also did not invite Uddhav to attend. The second time round, Uddhav was there, but it was apparent in Modi’s body language that he and his party were now on top.  Earlier this month on his first trip to Mumbai  after taking over the reins of the BJP, Shah kept the Sena in suspense about whether he would actually meet Thackeray. When he finally did, nothing of any substance resulted, except for a few words in praise of Bal Thackeray.

Meanwhile, the local BJP branch has kept up a chorus rubbishing the Sena’s claim for 169 seats, leaving only 119 for the national party ‒ equal seats for both or go it alone, is the message that is being repeated. More worryingly for the Sena, the BJP is making it clear it wants its own man as the next chief minister.

The tough guy

For Uddhav Thackeray, who has to constantly prove to his loyalists and cadre that he can be as “tough”, i.e. belligerent, no-nonsense and strong-willed, as his father, this is nothing short of humiliation. He sees a plan to not just sideline the Sena in these elections but to eventually reduce it in Maharashtra to an inconsequential political player. He is probably right. It is not paranoia; it is a realistically cold understanding of what the BJP, under the Modi-Shah dispensation, has in mind.

So Uddhav has hit back. Editorials in the party paper Saamna have become more strident, using metaphors like “demands for more sex lead to a divorce”. He has rubbished the Modi wave (to the great anger of the BJP). He has let it be known that like Barkis in David Copperfield, he is willing to become the chief minister should the combine win.

A breakdown in the relationship will mean both parties will suffer, since votes will get divided. They may hang on to each other for the sake of expediency and come up with some formula (sharing the chief minister's post for example), but the sniping will continue, especially at the grassroots. Sena workers will ensure that the BJP is taught a lesson. The BJP, charged with adrenaline, will hit back. For both, but especially the Sena, this is not just a question of seats ‒ it is a debate about the future.