Over the last couple of months, the Bharatiya Janata Party has run into disputes with its allies in four states over seat sharing agreements for the upcoming assembly elections. These allies have complained that the BJP, under the leadership of its new president Amit Shah, wants to contest the majority of the seats in each assembly rather than giving its partners an equal share.
Before it became clear that the BJP had taken a beating in last week's by-elections in nine states, the BJP seemed willing to break longstanding electoral alliances bonds with its allies even in places that it has never managed to dominate.
“One has to understand that it was the Modi wave that got BJP the majority in the Lok Sabha elections and not an ally wave,” said social scientist Shiv Vishwanathan. "Hence, it is fair for them to be ambitious and win state elections individually if they believe they can."
This strategy could actually help BJP win more assembly seats, observers say. If this happens, the party that now dominates the Lok Sabha could also take control of the Rajya Sabha, whose members are elected by state assemblies.
Here is how the alliances are playing out.
Maharashtra
Thus far, the BJP has been happy to be the junior party in its alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. It has contested fewer seats than its partner and allowed the Sena to have the chief minister's chair. But for October's elections, the BJP wants to contest half the seats and has rejected Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray's claims to be the chief minister candidate.
“The talks are still on," said Madhav Bhandari, the BJP spokesperson for Maharashtra. "We have offered a 50:50 seat share, which means that out of the 288 assembly seats, we will contest on 135 each while the remaining 18 seats might be given to the other smaller allies. As far as the CM candidate is concerned, the party high-command is still to take a decision.”
Thought this pact is almost 25 years old, the BJP isn't averse to abandoning it, observers said.
Punjab and Haryana
Trouble is also looming with the BJP's alliance in Punjab. Here, the BJP in unhappy with the decision of their partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal, to campaign in neighbouring Haryana for Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal.
The BJP recently ended its three-year old alliance with the Haryana Janhit Congress because Amit Shah wants the BJP to go into the elections by itself.
“It was a good tactical move by the BJP to let go of their alliance with the HJC," said Shiv Vishwanathan. "The party had a considerable performance in Haryana during the Lok Sabha polls while HJC failed despite being an ally. Hence, it only made sense to them to take on Haryana single-handedly."
Bihar and Jharkhand
On Sunday, the BJP ran into trouble when Upendra Kushwaha, the president of its ally in Bihar, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, staked his claim to run as chief minister when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance contests next year's assembly poll.
Bihar BJP president Mangal Pandey was quick to dismiss Kushwaha’s claim and emphasised that only a BJP leader will head the campaign and be the chief ministerial candidate, the Hindustan Times reported.
Kushwaha has asked the BJP to reconsider this decision, else his party will withdraw from the alliance.
In Jharkhand, the BJP does not want to form an alliance with the Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha but wants that party to merge with it instead.
“Riding the Modi wave, the party is likely to win some key states and is building their stronghold to rule for the next 10-15 years,” Vishwanathan said. "They are confident and wish to capitalise on it, even if it means alienating a few allies in the process."
The Congress, meanwhile, contends that the BJP is making a huge mistake by alienating its allies.
“The BJP is being a little too ambitious of-late," said party spokesperson Ajay Maken. "Though they may have won handsomely during the Lok Sabha elections, it’s only been downhill for the party since then. The by-elections in Bihar have proved that people are no longer sold on Narendra Modi or the BJP. Breaking ties with long term allies like Shiv Sena will only expose their greed.”
Before it became clear that the BJP had taken a beating in last week's by-elections in nine states, the BJP seemed willing to break longstanding electoral alliances bonds with its allies even in places that it has never managed to dominate.
“One has to understand that it was the Modi wave that got BJP the majority in the Lok Sabha elections and not an ally wave,” said social scientist Shiv Vishwanathan. "Hence, it is fair for them to be ambitious and win state elections individually if they believe they can."
This strategy could actually help BJP win more assembly seats, observers say. If this happens, the party that now dominates the Lok Sabha could also take control of the Rajya Sabha, whose members are elected by state assemblies.
Here is how the alliances are playing out.
Maharashtra
Thus far, the BJP has been happy to be the junior party in its alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. It has contested fewer seats than its partner and allowed the Sena to have the chief minister's chair. But for October's elections, the BJP wants to contest half the seats and has rejected Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray's claims to be the chief minister candidate.
“The talks are still on," said Madhav Bhandari, the BJP spokesperson for Maharashtra. "We have offered a 50:50 seat share, which means that out of the 288 assembly seats, we will contest on 135 each while the remaining 18 seats might be given to the other smaller allies. As far as the CM candidate is concerned, the party high-command is still to take a decision.”
Thought this pact is almost 25 years old, the BJP isn't averse to abandoning it, observers said.
Punjab and Haryana
Trouble is also looming with the BJP's alliance in Punjab. Here, the BJP in unhappy with the decision of their partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal, to campaign in neighbouring Haryana for Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal.
The BJP recently ended its three-year old alliance with the Haryana Janhit Congress because Amit Shah wants the BJP to go into the elections by itself.
“It was a good tactical move by the BJP to let go of their alliance with the HJC," said Shiv Vishwanathan. "The party had a considerable performance in Haryana during the Lok Sabha polls while HJC failed despite being an ally. Hence, it only made sense to them to take on Haryana single-handedly."
Bihar and Jharkhand
On Sunday, the BJP ran into trouble when Upendra Kushwaha, the president of its ally in Bihar, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, staked his claim to run as chief minister when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance contests next year's assembly poll.
Bihar BJP president Mangal Pandey was quick to dismiss Kushwaha’s claim and emphasised that only a BJP leader will head the campaign and be the chief ministerial candidate, the Hindustan Times reported.
Kushwaha has asked the BJP to reconsider this decision, else his party will withdraw from the alliance.
In Jharkhand, the BJP does not want to form an alliance with the Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha but wants that party to merge with it instead.
“Riding the Modi wave, the party is likely to win some key states and is building their stronghold to rule for the next 10-15 years,” Vishwanathan said. "They are confident and wish to capitalise on it, even if it means alienating a few allies in the process."
The Congress, meanwhile, contends that the BJP is making a huge mistake by alienating its allies.
“The BJP is being a little too ambitious of-late," said party spokesperson Ajay Maken. "Though they may have won handsomely during the Lok Sabha elections, it’s only been downhill for the party since then. The by-elections in Bihar have proved that people are no longer sold on Narendra Modi or the BJP. Breaking ties with long term allies like Shiv Sena will only expose their greed.”
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