Nobody in the teashop in Rani Ki Sarai, a subdivision in Azamgarh in eastern Uttar Pradesh, doubts that Mulayam Singh Yadav will win this Lok Sabha seat. But hardly anyone believes that his high standing in this constituency will improve the performance of the candidates of his Samajwadi Party in the neighbouring seats of eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Strangely, this impression is stood on its head the moment you cross the boundaries of Azamgarh to the adjacent Ghosi constituency. “Mulayam is fighting a tough battle, and I would be surprised if he wins,” said Mohammad Salim, a resident of Mohammadabad. “But his arrival has improved the chances of Rajiv Rai [the SP candidate] in Ghosi,” he added.
In fact, the great majority of locals whom Scroll.in interviewed in Azamgarh, Ghosi and Lalganj – three adjacent constituencies in eastern Uttar Pradesh – appeared to have very different opinions about Mulayam and his ability to rally support for his party candidates. In Azamgarh, Mulayam is considered home safe, but residents of Ghosi and Lalganj believe that he is fighting a tough battle. Ghosi and Lalganj acknowledge Mulayam’s ability to influence their voting behavior but don’t think he’ll get through in his own constituency.
In any event, it's clear that Mulayam Singh Yadav has become part of the dominant debate in all three places. That is exactly what the SP chief intended when he announced his decision to contest from Azamgarh, in addition to his traditional Mainpuri seat. The real extent of a Modi wave in Poorvanchal and Mulayam’s ability to stand as a bulwark against it will be obvious only when the results are out. But the fact that the SP is back in the reckoning in these three seats is obvious.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, Azamgarh had gone to the BJP, while Ghosi and Lalganj were won by the Bahujan Samaj Party.
In Azamgarh, where Yadavs and Muslims together account for nearly six lakh votes, the arithmetic is clearly tilted in favour of the SP chief. In the 2012 state elections, the SP won four of the five assembly seats that constitute Azamgarh. The fifth one was won by the BSP.
Mulayam, who has been the party’s main campaigner, is likely to set up camp here for about a week from the beginning of May. On April 22, he filed his nomination papers in Azamgarh amidst a grand show attended by large number of SP workers who chanted slogans, danced to the throb of drums and sang songs hailing him as the next prime minister.
If he does win, the BJP and its candidate, Ramakant Yadav, will suffer a loss of face. A one-time protégé of Mulayam, Ramakant left the SP to join the BJP just before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which he won from Azamgarh.
Till the time Mulayam announced his candidature from Azamgarh, BSP candidate Shah Alam (alias Guddu Jamali) appeared to be in the contest. With the electorate consisting of over 20% dalit voters and with his own support base among Muslims, Alam had started making his presence felt in Azamgarh. But after Mulayam’s entry into the fray, the BSP is hardly considered a viable contender any longer.
Mulayam’s decision to contest from Azamgarh enthused SP workers in the region, just as the announcement of Modi’s candidature from Varanasi galvanised BJP workers in Poorvanchal. In particular, the electoral dynamics changed within days in Ghosi and Lalganj.
In 2009, BSP’s Dara Singh Chouhan had been elected from Ghosi. Until Mulayam’s decision, Chouhan seemed to be in a contest with BJP candidate Hari Narayan Rajbhar. But now SP candidate Rajiv Rai is seen to have replaced the BJP candidate on the frontlines.
A similar shift was recorded in Lalganj, too. The seat was won in 2009 by the BSP’s Dr Bali Ram. This time round, he appeared to be in direct contest with BJP’s Neelam Sonkar. But the moment Mulayam’s announcement came, SP candidate Bechai Saroj’s stock started rising and he soon replaced the BJP candidate, becoming the main challenger to the BSP candidate.
Strangely, this impression is stood on its head the moment you cross the boundaries of Azamgarh to the adjacent Ghosi constituency. “Mulayam is fighting a tough battle, and I would be surprised if he wins,” said Mohammad Salim, a resident of Mohammadabad. “But his arrival has improved the chances of Rajiv Rai [the SP candidate] in Ghosi,” he added.
In fact, the great majority of locals whom Scroll.in interviewed in Azamgarh, Ghosi and Lalganj – three adjacent constituencies in eastern Uttar Pradesh – appeared to have very different opinions about Mulayam and his ability to rally support for his party candidates. In Azamgarh, Mulayam is considered home safe, but residents of Ghosi and Lalganj believe that he is fighting a tough battle. Ghosi and Lalganj acknowledge Mulayam’s ability to influence their voting behavior but don’t think he’ll get through in his own constituency.
In any event, it's clear that Mulayam Singh Yadav has become part of the dominant debate in all three places. That is exactly what the SP chief intended when he announced his decision to contest from Azamgarh, in addition to his traditional Mainpuri seat. The real extent of a Modi wave in Poorvanchal and Mulayam’s ability to stand as a bulwark against it will be obvious only when the results are out. But the fact that the SP is back in the reckoning in these three seats is obvious.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, Azamgarh had gone to the BJP, while Ghosi and Lalganj were won by the Bahujan Samaj Party.
In Azamgarh, where Yadavs and Muslims together account for nearly six lakh votes, the arithmetic is clearly tilted in favour of the SP chief. In the 2012 state elections, the SP won four of the five assembly seats that constitute Azamgarh. The fifth one was won by the BSP.
Mulayam, who has been the party’s main campaigner, is likely to set up camp here for about a week from the beginning of May. On April 22, he filed his nomination papers in Azamgarh amidst a grand show attended by large number of SP workers who chanted slogans, danced to the throb of drums and sang songs hailing him as the next prime minister.
If he does win, the BJP and its candidate, Ramakant Yadav, will suffer a loss of face. A one-time protégé of Mulayam, Ramakant left the SP to join the BJP just before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which he won from Azamgarh.
Till the time Mulayam announced his candidature from Azamgarh, BSP candidate Shah Alam (alias Guddu Jamali) appeared to be in the contest. With the electorate consisting of over 20% dalit voters and with his own support base among Muslims, Alam had started making his presence felt in Azamgarh. But after Mulayam’s entry into the fray, the BSP is hardly considered a viable contender any longer.
Mulayam’s decision to contest from Azamgarh enthused SP workers in the region, just as the announcement of Modi’s candidature from Varanasi galvanised BJP workers in Poorvanchal. In particular, the electoral dynamics changed within days in Ghosi and Lalganj.
In 2009, BSP’s Dara Singh Chouhan had been elected from Ghosi. Until Mulayam’s decision, Chouhan seemed to be in a contest with BJP candidate Hari Narayan Rajbhar. But now SP candidate Rajiv Rai is seen to have replaced the BJP candidate on the frontlines.
A similar shift was recorded in Lalganj, too. The seat was won in 2009 by the BSP’s Dr Bali Ram. This time round, he appeared to be in direct contest with BJP’s Neelam Sonkar. But the moment Mulayam’s announcement came, SP candidate Bechai Saroj’s stock started rising and he soon replaced the BJP candidate, becoming the main challenger to the BSP candidate.
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