As Sharad Yadav’s chopper landed at Dhurgaon in Bihar’s Madhepura district on Thursday, he was concerned by one question: how many of the village’s Mahadalits – the poorest of the dalits – would actually go out to cast their votes on April 30.

“Your vote is important,’ the Janata Dal (United ) president told the villagers who had gathered in the ground of Shri Sitaram Shaligram High School. “It will decide how and for whom the country’s budget would be spent during the next five years. And our country’s budget is not small. So don’t stay back. Do go to polling booth, even if you don’t want to vote for me.”

In Madhepura, which is considered nerve centre of Yadav politics, the JD(U) president is pitted against Rashtriya Janata Dal’s powerful Pappu Yadav. Madhepura’s estimated 300,000 Yadavs are aggressively supporting Pappu Yadav. But the support base of Sharad Yadav, the sitting MP, consists primarily of Mahadalits and members of the most backward castes. Though the Bharatiya Janata Party has put up a candidate, Vijay Kumar Singh isn’t thought to have much of a chance.

Over the past few years, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) has been carefully cultivating the support of the Mahadalits and the MBCs. While Mahadalits consist of state’s entire dalit population barring the Paswan caste, the MBCs comprise the majority sections of other backward classes left out in the race of power in Bihar.

In Madhepura constituency, members of these two groups number about 400,000 of the total population. But no one is certain how many members of these groups, particularly the Mahadalits, will actually exercise their franchise.

Mahadalits have assumed a distinct identity since Nitish Kumar set up a commission in 2007 to identify the “poorest among dalits” so that special benefit packages could be formulated to help them. Not surprisingly, Mahadalits have emerged as strong JD(U) supporters. However, these voters are quite susceptible to local pressure and need social alliances with one of the dominant castes to give them confidence to emerge from their homes to cast their votes.

As a group, the Kurmi caste to which Nitish Kumar belongs has neither the numbers nor the reach to play such a role. By parting ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Bihar Chief Minister has lost the chance of getting such muscle-fencing from BJP-supporting upper castes. Even the MBCs, which account for nearly 30% of the state’s population and are nurtured by special packages from Nitish Kumar, are not powerful enough in most parts of the state to come out openly against the aggressive Yadavs.

“That is the problem with Mahadalits everywhere in the state,” said JD( U) leader Ali Anwar. “Most of them are landless labourers and are so much dependent on the dominant sections in their areas that the party they would appear to be supporting is not the party they will vote for if they actually reach the polling booth.”

The Yadavs, for their part, are supporting the RJD. Since the late 1990s, Madhepura has been the battleground of Bihar’s two top Yadav leaders of Bihar – Lalu Prasad and Sharad Yadav. The seat has swung between them since 1998.

In Dhurgaon, which is inhabited almost in equal numbers by Yadavs and Mahadalits, the first impression you would get is that the entire village, including Mahadalits, will vote for Pappu Yadav and that Sharad Yadav is certain to lose. But as you press further, the battle lines in this village start becoming visible – along with the question of how many of Mahadalits will actually go out and vote.

Arun Rishidev, a member of the Mahadalit group and the sarpanch of the village, says that he is an enthusiastic supporter of Pappu Yadav. “I am not happy with the JD(U) government,” he said.  His brother Devprakash Rishidev, on his part, would want you to believe that he will make his decision when closer to voting time. “I don’t know” was his reply to all questions about whether he will vote or which candidate he will support.

However, not all the Mahadalits in this village were as diplomatic. Devprakash’s wife Usha Devi, for example, found no reason to hide her preferences. “No matter what he [her husband] does, I will certainly vote for Nitish,” she said, apparently irritated by her husband’s evasive replies.

But such outspokenness is rare. Overtly, the majority of Dhurgaon’s Mahadalits would not pronounce their support for the JD(U) even though they dropped enough hints about whom they would vote for.

If the Mahadalits actually come out to vote, Sharad Yadav will rest easier. “In Madhepura, as in most other parts of the state, the Mahadalits and the MBC votes will go straight to the JD(U) candidates,” said Manish Kumar, a local journalist. “If that happens, Sharad Yadav’s victory is certain. But whether they will muster enough courage to come out for voting remains a big question.”