“It is baffling how a party which has ruled India for nearly 60 years can kill itself in four years in a state where it reigned supreme,” said Andhra Pradesh MLA and President of the Lok Satta party Jayaprakash Narayan in a recent television interview. He isn’t the only one who is perplexed about how the Congress has got into such a mess in Andhra Pradesh. Many political observers believe that the party is headed for disaster on both sides of the divided state.
The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, approved by Parliament last month, means that the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats will also be split. Telengana will send 17 representatives to the lower house, while Seemandhra will have 25 members. The voters in each state have different concerns and will be swayed by different issues.
The Congress’s Telugu irony is reflected in the numbers. In 2004 and 2009, united AP made a significant contribution to the Congress’s final tally. The party won 29 of the 42 seats in 2004, and 33 in 2009. But in this year’s election, it is virtually non-existent in the 25 constituencies of Seemandhra and there are serious doubts about how many of the 17 seats it will manage in Telengana.
The Congress victories in 2004 and 2009 were delivered by Chief Minister Y.S. Rajashekar Reddy, a strong satrap in a party that does not traditionally encourage such independence. He held the party’s factions together with an authoritarian grip. But when he died in a helicopter crash in 2009, the Congress’s Telugu plot seems to have faded with him.
Soon after YSR Reddy’s death, his son YS Jaganmohan Reddy demanded that he be appointed chief minister. The party high command refused, so Jagan broke away to form the YSR Congress. Jaganmohan Reddy represents the group that has been Congress’s strongest vote base in the state: the Reddy community. Jagan Reddy hails from the Rayalseema region, where politics acquires a strong feudal character.
In an effort to prevent the alienation of that core group, the Congress in 2010 appointed Kirankumar Reddy, who also hails from Rayalseema, as Chief Minister. Still, this could not undermine Jagan’s political appeal, which was being built on sympathy for his father’s sudden death.
In May 2012, Jagan Reddy was arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation on charges of corruption. He defended himself by claiming that he was the victim of “vendetta politics” by the Congress.
The division of Seemandhra and Telangana into distinct administrative areas hearkens back to the situation that existed before Independence. While Telangana was ruled by the Nawab of Hyderabad, the rest of Andhra Pradesh was largely controlled by the British. Telangana was economically backward compared to coastal Andhra Pradesh and fierce movements for a separate state had erupted in the 1960s and ’80s.
The Telangana agitation was re-ignited in 2009. This time, the movement was led by K. Chandrashekar Rao, popularly called KCR, who launched the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti to demand a separate state. Intense protests and a fast unto death by KCR forced the Congress government at the centre to buckle under pressure and announce a new state of Telangana in December 2009. But it soon faced even greater pressure from its party’s “united Andhra” lobby and decided to backtrack.
Across coastal Andhra and Rayalseema, the anti-bifurcation movement was just as fervent. The anger of residents here was evident in the acrimonious scenes witnessed in parliament during passage of the bill.
Whichever way the bifurcation vote went, the Congress expected trouble from Jagan Reddy in Seemandhra and hoped to consolidate its position in the 17 seats of Telangana by going ahead with the bill. In doing so, it has lost all ground across Seemandhra. In effect, the general elections here will be a battle between YSRCP, which had taken a strong anti-bifurcation stand, and the Telugu Desam Party.
The TDP had initially supported the division but, in the last days leading up to the passage of the bill, it took a stand against it. The party has a strong base amongst the numerically powerful Khamma caste in coastal Andhra and could not ignore their sentiment.
Both the TDP and the YSRCP have called bifurcation a betrayal of Andhra Pradesh. Jaganmohan Reddy even described it as “match fixing between the Congress and the BJP”.
Despite this, because both Jaganmohan and the TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu are primarily anti-Congress, the two regional parties have expressed their willingness to consider an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Both have indicated that they are not anti-Modi.
The BJP is a marginal player in the state. They had taken a categorical stand in favour of Telangana, which was consistent with the party’s position that smaller states are more effective. But the anti-BJP sentiment in Seemandhra is not as strong as the anti-Congress sentiment.
“They are open to an alliance despite the fact that minorities still see Modi as a polarising figure and the BJP supported the division of Andhra Pradesh,” said Asaduddin Owaisi, president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, who represents Hyderabad in the Lok Sabha.
Said a TPD member who requested anonymity, “If an alliance happens, we will project Modi as a central figure who can do justice to a new state that has been created. In some way. Modi the leader will be distinct from BJP the party.”
If that’s not bad enough, in Telangana, which the Congress hoped to sweep, KCR is throwing a spanner in the works. KCR had said in August 2012 that he would merge the TRS with the Congress the day the party announced the creation of Telangana. Now that the deed is done, he has decided “no merger, an alliance if it works out, else we will go alone”.
The TRS is bargaining hard for the chief minster’s post for KCR when the new state of Telangana is finally born. The TRS also wants more seats for its members and the Congress, which is the larger party in the region, finds the demand difficult. The Congress wanted a merger to avoid any uncertainty but, that seems increasingly unlikely. Instead, the TRS may end up in an alliance with the Congress and demand a considerable number of seats.
Jaganmohan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu and K Chandrashekar Rao are all are potential allies for the BJP or any non-Congress formation. This may bring cheer to rivals of the Congress. But it is also a reminder that their parties could add to instability to a coalition in Delhi.
The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, approved by Parliament last month, means that the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats will also be split. Telengana will send 17 representatives to the lower house, while Seemandhra will have 25 members. The voters in each state have different concerns and will be swayed by different issues.
The Congress’s Telugu irony is reflected in the numbers. In 2004 and 2009, united AP made a significant contribution to the Congress’s final tally. The party won 29 of the 42 seats in 2004, and 33 in 2009. But in this year’s election, it is virtually non-existent in the 25 constituencies of Seemandhra and there are serious doubts about how many of the 17 seats it will manage in Telengana.
The Congress victories in 2004 and 2009 were delivered by Chief Minister Y.S. Rajashekar Reddy, a strong satrap in a party that does not traditionally encourage such independence. He held the party’s factions together with an authoritarian grip. But when he died in a helicopter crash in 2009, the Congress’s Telugu plot seems to have faded with him.
Soon after YSR Reddy’s death, his son YS Jaganmohan Reddy demanded that he be appointed chief minister. The party high command refused, so Jagan broke away to form the YSR Congress. Jaganmohan Reddy represents the group that has been Congress’s strongest vote base in the state: the Reddy community. Jagan Reddy hails from the Rayalseema region, where politics acquires a strong feudal character.
In an effort to prevent the alienation of that core group, the Congress in 2010 appointed Kirankumar Reddy, who also hails from Rayalseema, as Chief Minister. Still, this could not undermine Jagan’s political appeal, which was being built on sympathy for his father’s sudden death.
In May 2012, Jagan Reddy was arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation on charges of corruption. He defended himself by claiming that he was the victim of “vendetta politics” by the Congress.
The division of Seemandhra and Telangana into distinct administrative areas hearkens back to the situation that existed before Independence. While Telangana was ruled by the Nawab of Hyderabad, the rest of Andhra Pradesh was largely controlled by the British. Telangana was economically backward compared to coastal Andhra Pradesh and fierce movements for a separate state had erupted in the 1960s and ’80s.
The Telangana agitation was re-ignited in 2009. This time, the movement was led by K. Chandrashekar Rao, popularly called KCR, who launched the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti to demand a separate state. Intense protests and a fast unto death by KCR forced the Congress government at the centre to buckle under pressure and announce a new state of Telangana in December 2009. But it soon faced even greater pressure from its party’s “united Andhra” lobby and decided to backtrack.
Across coastal Andhra and Rayalseema, the anti-bifurcation movement was just as fervent. The anger of residents here was evident in the acrimonious scenes witnessed in parliament during passage of the bill.
Whichever way the bifurcation vote went, the Congress expected trouble from Jagan Reddy in Seemandhra and hoped to consolidate its position in the 17 seats of Telangana by going ahead with the bill. In doing so, it has lost all ground across Seemandhra. In effect, the general elections here will be a battle between YSRCP, which had taken a strong anti-bifurcation stand, and the Telugu Desam Party.
The TDP had initially supported the division but, in the last days leading up to the passage of the bill, it took a stand against it. The party has a strong base amongst the numerically powerful Khamma caste in coastal Andhra and could not ignore their sentiment.
Both the TDP and the YSRCP have called bifurcation a betrayal of Andhra Pradesh. Jaganmohan Reddy even described it as “match fixing between the Congress and the BJP”.
Despite this, because both Jaganmohan and the TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu are primarily anti-Congress, the two regional parties have expressed their willingness to consider an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Both have indicated that they are not anti-Modi.
The BJP is a marginal player in the state. They had taken a categorical stand in favour of Telangana, which was consistent with the party’s position that smaller states are more effective. But the anti-BJP sentiment in Seemandhra is not as strong as the anti-Congress sentiment.
“They are open to an alliance despite the fact that minorities still see Modi as a polarising figure and the BJP supported the division of Andhra Pradesh,” said Asaduddin Owaisi, president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, who represents Hyderabad in the Lok Sabha.
Said a TPD member who requested anonymity, “If an alliance happens, we will project Modi as a central figure who can do justice to a new state that has been created. In some way. Modi the leader will be distinct from BJP the party.”
If that’s not bad enough, in Telangana, which the Congress hoped to sweep, KCR is throwing a spanner in the works. KCR had said in August 2012 that he would merge the TRS with the Congress the day the party announced the creation of Telangana. Now that the deed is done, he has decided “no merger, an alliance if it works out, else we will go alone”.
The TRS is bargaining hard for the chief minster’s post for KCR when the new state of Telangana is finally born. The TRS also wants more seats for its members and the Congress, which is the larger party in the region, finds the demand difficult. The Congress wanted a merger to avoid any uncertainty but, that seems increasingly unlikely. Instead, the TRS may end up in an alliance with the Congress and demand a considerable number of seats.
Jaganmohan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu and K Chandrashekar Rao are all are potential allies for the BJP or any non-Congress formation. This may bring cheer to rivals of the Congress. But it is also a reminder that their parties could add to instability to a coalition in Delhi.
Buy an annual Scroll Membership to support independent journalism and get special benefits.
Our journalism is for everyone. But you can get special privileges by buying an annual Scroll Membership. Sign up today!