There might be no better time for Tamil Nadu chief minister Jayalalitha to look to Delhi. Pollsters have been calculating the probability of her obtaining the prime ministerial seat, but even if she does not get it, there is almost no way she can lose.
‘From Fort St George to Red Fort’ is the latest slogan from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and it clearly points to Jayalalitha’s prime ministerial ambitions.
Analysts assumed for a long while that Jayalalitha would give outside support to the BJP, based on her friendship with Gujarat chief minister and prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. She even attended his swearing-in as chief minister in December 2012.
However, at an AIADMK meeting in December, she announced her party’s intention to win all of Tamil Nadu’s seats, she said, “Only if AIADMK gets complete win (all 40 seats -39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry), can India's prosperity and security be ensured. So the party has to stand alone and win all 40 seats. That is our aim.”
As the BJP has a negligible presence in the state, she is not exactly burning bridges with the National Democratic Alliance, the main opposition grouping, led by the BJP. But her statement makes it clear that if a Third Front becomes a possibility, she would not hesitate to join it.
If neither the BJP nor the Congress obtain an adequate number of seats, they will no longer be able to dictate who will lead their ruling coalition. In that case, Jayalalitha, who is enjoying unrivalled popularity in her state, might well emerge as the largest leader among the small parties that could put together a Third Front This might give her first choice at the prime minister’s seat.
Cho Ramaswamy, editor of the Tamil weekly Thuglak, dismissed these calculations as premature. “Elections are getting nearer, and that is the only reason they are suggesting Jayalalitha as prime minister,” he said. However, Ramaswamy himself first pitched the idea at a conference last year.
Even so, Jayalalitha is too canny a politician not to see that too many factors need to align before she can seriously eye 7, Racecourse Road. That, however, does not outweigh the soft gains of pitching herself for the post.
“Now is the best time for Jayalalithaa to aspire to the post of prime minister,” said Vaasanthi, a political commentator and author of a book on Tamil Nadu politics. “The AIADMK has a brute majority in the state and there is a lot of in-fighting in the DMK.”
Reports regularly detail the infighting in the DMK. The latest was on Thursday, when DMK leader Karunanidhi suspended four supporters of his elder son MK Alagiri. It is uncertain whether they will be able to pull themselves together in time for 2014.
Jayalalitha also has a suitably loyal replacement for her present chief ministerial post if she does move on to Delhi. O Paneerselvam became chief minister of Tamil Nadu once in 2001 after the Supreme Court debarred Jayalalitha from holding office due to a criminal conviction that was subsequently overturned. He is currently the state’s finance minister.
At a national level, if she gets 30 to 35 Lok Sabha seats and is a part of whatever ruling coalition emerges, she will be able to leverage public policy towards gains for Tamil Nadu, which can in turn consolidate her hold on the state.
She might also hope to inspire her party workers to greater involvement in the 2014 campaign by posturing for prime minister, which might be crucial to get her the majority of Tamil Nadu’s seats.
All this depends on how the two big parties, the BJP and the Congress, perform in the election. It is likely that they will have a tougher fight ahead of them than ever before.
Six of India’s 28 states contribute 291 out of 543 elected members to the Lok Sabha: Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39).
Winning these states alone would be sufficient for any party to assume a majority, but this is unlikely with voters being more divided than ever before.
In the National Democratic Alliance led by BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, the BJP won 182 seats and 24 allied parties brought in 117 seats, giving it a comfortable majority of 299 seats in the House. Of the BJP’s 182 seats, 103 came from the six big states.
In comparison, in the last election in 2009, the Congress got only 87 of its 206 seats from the top six states. The remaining seats did not go to the BJP but to regional parties.
It is safe to assume that this trend will continue in the 2014 election.
Uttar Pradesh usually splits four ways between the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, the BJP and the Congress. Votes are likely to be particularly divided this year in light of the Muzaffarnagar riots and the SP’s incompetence in handling them.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar announced his departure from the NDA in June 2013, making it a three-cornered contest in his state between the UPA, NDA and Janata Dal (United).
Mamata Banerjee left the UPA in September 2012, pushing the West Bengal poll into a contest between her Trinamool Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Congress and the BJP.
Andhra Pradesh might split into two states by the time the 2014 election arrives, and even if it is not, the issue of Telangana is likely to eat into the present Congress majority of 33 seats and give new strength to the Telugu Desam Party and others.
Maharashtra is the only state in which there will be a two-corner election – unless the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress split, or if Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party plays spoiler.
AAP announced on Monday that they would contest all seats in both Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, as well as 72 seats in 18 other states. It is unlikely they will ally with any other party unless they see a possibility of coming to power at the centre.
This leaves Tamil Nadu. While the DMK presently holds the majority of Lok Sabha seats, the AIADMK demolished it in the 2011 elections.
With votes in the traditional kingmaker states splitting several ways, regional parties in smaller states will now become prominent. Poet and political observer Meena Kandasamy noted, “Besides, if Modi can make claims to being PM based on the so-called ‘growth’ in Gujarat, I don’t think there is any reason why someone from Tamil Nadu will not stand a chance.”
Jayalalitha is clearly looking to increase her bargaining power no matter who comes to power after the general election. She might not become prime minister, but that does not mean she is not playing to win.
‘From Fort St George to Red Fort’ is the latest slogan from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and it clearly points to Jayalalitha’s prime ministerial ambitions.
Analysts assumed for a long while that Jayalalitha would give outside support to the BJP, based on her friendship with Gujarat chief minister and prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. She even attended his swearing-in as chief minister in December 2012.
However, at an AIADMK meeting in December, she announced her party’s intention to win all of Tamil Nadu’s seats, she said, “Only if AIADMK gets complete win (all 40 seats -39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry), can India's prosperity and security be ensured. So the party has to stand alone and win all 40 seats. That is our aim.”
As the BJP has a negligible presence in the state, she is not exactly burning bridges with the National Democratic Alliance, the main opposition grouping, led by the BJP. But her statement makes it clear that if a Third Front becomes a possibility, she would not hesitate to join it.
If neither the BJP nor the Congress obtain an adequate number of seats, they will no longer be able to dictate who will lead their ruling coalition. In that case, Jayalalitha, who is enjoying unrivalled popularity in her state, might well emerge as the largest leader among the small parties that could put together a Third Front This might give her first choice at the prime minister’s seat.
Cho Ramaswamy, editor of the Tamil weekly Thuglak, dismissed these calculations as premature. “Elections are getting nearer, and that is the only reason they are suggesting Jayalalitha as prime minister,” he said. However, Ramaswamy himself first pitched the idea at a conference last year.
Even so, Jayalalitha is too canny a politician not to see that too many factors need to align before she can seriously eye 7, Racecourse Road. That, however, does not outweigh the soft gains of pitching herself for the post.
“Now is the best time for Jayalalithaa to aspire to the post of prime minister,” said Vaasanthi, a political commentator and author of a book on Tamil Nadu politics. “The AIADMK has a brute majority in the state and there is a lot of in-fighting in the DMK.”
Reports regularly detail the infighting in the DMK. The latest was on Thursday, when DMK leader Karunanidhi suspended four supporters of his elder son MK Alagiri. It is uncertain whether they will be able to pull themselves together in time for 2014.
Jayalalitha also has a suitably loyal replacement for her present chief ministerial post if she does move on to Delhi. O Paneerselvam became chief minister of Tamil Nadu once in 2001 after the Supreme Court debarred Jayalalitha from holding office due to a criminal conviction that was subsequently overturned. He is currently the state’s finance minister.
At a national level, if she gets 30 to 35 Lok Sabha seats and is a part of whatever ruling coalition emerges, she will be able to leverage public policy towards gains for Tamil Nadu, which can in turn consolidate her hold on the state.
She might also hope to inspire her party workers to greater involvement in the 2014 campaign by posturing for prime minister, which might be crucial to get her the majority of Tamil Nadu’s seats.
All this depends on how the two big parties, the BJP and the Congress, perform in the election. It is likely that they will have a tougher fight ahead of them than ever before.
Six of India’s 28 states contribute 291 out of 543 elected members to the Lok Sabha: Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39).
Winning these states alone would be sufficient for any party to assume a majority, but this is unlikely with voters being more divided than ever before.
In the National Democratic Alliance led by BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, the BJP won 182 seats and 24 allied parties brought in 117 seats, giving it a comfortable majority of 299 seats in the House. Of the BJP’s 182 seats, 103 came from the six big states.
In comparison, in the last election in 2009, the Congress got only 87 of its 206 seats from the top six states. The remaining seats did not go to the BJP but to regional parties.
It is safe to assume that this trend will continue in the 2014 election.
Uttar Pradesh usually splits four ways between the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, the BJP and the Congress. Votes are likely to be particularly divided this year in light of the Muzaffarnagar riots and the SP’s incompetence in handling them.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar announced his departure from the NDA in June 2013, making it a three-cornered contest in his state between the UPA, NDA and Janata Dal (United).
Mamata Banerjee left the UPA in September 2012, pushing the West Bengal poll into a contest between her Trinamool Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Congress and the BJP.
Andhra Pradesh might split into two states by the time the 2014 election arrives, and even if it is not, the issue of Telangana is likely to eat into the present Congress majority of 33 seats and give new strength to the Telugu Desam Party and others.
Maharashtra is the only state in which there will be a two-corner election – unless the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress split, or if Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party plays spoiler.
AAP announced on Monday that they would contest all seats in both Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, as well as 72 seats in 18 other states. It is unlikely they will ally with any other party unless they see a possibility of coming to power at the centre.
This leaves Tamil Nadu. While the DMK presently holds the majority of Lok Sabha seats, the AIADMK demolished it in the 2011 elections.
With votes in the traditional kingmaker states splitting several ways, regional parties in smaller states will now become prominent. Poet and political observer Meena Kandasamy noted, “Besides, if Modi can make claims to being PM based on the so-called ‘growth’ in Gujarat, I don’t think there is any reason why someone from Tamil Nadu will not stand a chance.”
Jayalalitha is clearly looking to increase her bargaining power no matter who comes to power after the general election. She might not become prime minister, but that does not mean she is not playing to win.
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