El Niño likely to intensify as India’s monsoon advances slowly

Global meteorological agencies have confirmed El Niño is here. In India, El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to intensify as the southwest monsoon progresses, confirms the India Meteorological Department’s June bulletin. Experts say the developing El Niño should be treated as a serious climate risk and an early warning, urging timely planning and preparedness rather than alarm.

The World Meteorological Organization, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the India Meteorological Department and are converging on the increasing likelihood of the El Niño event developing to a moderate to strong event in the next few months.

“There was a high likelihood of El Niño developing during June-August 2026, with probabilities around 80%. The probability of El Niño conditions continuing through August to November is near or above 90%,” says Barbara Tapia Cortes, World Meteorological Organization Technical Coordinator (Services).

Recent updates about a developing El Niño have triggered a wave of headlines warning of droughts, heatwaves and monsoon disruptions, sparking concerns globally. However, while El Niño has been confirmed and is likely to strengthen further, there is still considerable uncertainty about its intensity and impacts on India.

Cortes explains, “The impacts depend on the event’s intensity, duration, timing and interaction with other climate drivers.”

For India, where agriculture, water resources, and urban water supplies remain closely tied to monsoon performance, even a moderate El Niño could have significant consequences.

“The emerging 2026-27 El Niño should be treated as a serious climate risk. If it strengthens as forecast, this period could also push global temperatures to new record levels, because El Niño will be acting on top of an already warmer climate system,” says Roxy Mathew Koll, Scientist, Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

El Niño might get stronger

El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), defined by sustained sea-surface warming in the Niño 3.4 region of the east-central tropical Pacific ocean.

El Niño is generally declared when sea surface temperatures in this region remain at least 0.5 degrees celsius above a standard 30-year average, for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods, with accompanying atmospheric changes. Currently, the Niño 3.4 region has warmed by about +0.7 degrees celsius above average, 0.2 degrees celsius above the threshold required for El Niño conditions.

The event can range in intensity from weak to very strong on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), with anomalies of +0.5-0.9 degrees celsius considered weak, +1.0-1.4 degrees celsius moderate, +1.5-1.9 degrees celsius strong, and ≥2.0 degrees celsius very strong.

Notably, only a handful of El Niño events have reached “very strong” intensity: those of 1982–83, 1991-92, 1997–98, and 2015–16 (RONI ≥ 2.0°C). These episodes reshaped weather patterns across continents, contributing to droughts, floods, coral bleaching, and spikes in global temperatures.

The most recent 2023-’24 event nearly breached 1.5 degrees celsius above average, and ranks among the five strongest on record, contributing to record high temperatures in 2024.

NOAA probability data further shows a 63% chance of a ‘very strong’ (RONI ≥ 2.0 degrees celsius) El Niño developing between November 2026 and January 2027.

Sensational messages

Scientists emphasise that there is a crucial difference between forecasting the onset of El Niño and its eventual intensity.

Cortes explains, “El Niño events normally develop between March and June and tend to peak between November and February, so the coming months will be critical for monitoring its evolution. At this stage, most models suggest this event will be at least moderate and possibly strong.”

While Cortes states that it is still too early for definitive statements, news reports and social media are already abuzz with sensational phrases like “Super El Niño” and “Godzilla El Niño”, which are not official or recognised terms.

“The downside is that these (sensational) terms can oversimplify a complex climate phenomenon, create unnecessary alarm, and distract from the more useful message: El Niño increases the likelihood of certain climate impacts, but it does not affect all regions in the same way,” states Cortes.

Uncertainty in forecasts

ENSO forecasts issued during the Northern Hemisphere spring in the first half of the year are generally less reliable than those made later in the year, because of the spring predictability barrier where small uncertainties in coupled ocean-atmosphere processes can grow rapidly during seasonal transition, reducing forecast accuracy.

As a result, models may broadly agree that the Pacific is warming while remaining less certain about how strong the event will ultimately become.

“The next updates will be important in confirming the strength, timing and persistence of the developing El Niño, and how it may interact with other climate drivers. This information is especially important for regional climate outlooks and for sectors such as agriculture, water management, health, disaster risk reduction and humanitarian preparedness,” says Cortes.

The World Meteorological Organization issues El Niño/La Niña updates every quarter, and the next update in September 2026 will offer more clarity.

What this means for India

The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, close to maintaining a state of near-constant heatwave, affecting rainfall patterns, marine temperatures, cyclone activity, and atmospheric circulation across South Asia.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation can further amplify heatwaves in southwest India by weakening cloud formation and moisture transport, creating conditions favourable for prolonged high temperatures.

Naturally, the possibility of a strong El Niño event raises rainfall and drought concerns, especially as the country has already been experiencing unusual heatwaves and erratic weather which are predicted to continue, with current temperatures fuelling the trend.

Koll notes, “We have already had a weak start to the monsoon, with rainfall running close to 25% below normal after the first ten days.” Recent IMD forecasts have also predicted delayed and below-normal rainfall for the country from June to September.

However, El Niño does not automatically guarantee a poor monsoon as several other climate drivers influence India’s southwest monsoon simultaneously. Importantly, the Indian Ocean Dipole, an oscillation in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Indian Ocean, can either reinforce or offset El Niño’s influence.

According to the IMD, currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions may turn positive in the coming months, which could enhance rainfall, partially offsetting El Niño’s drying influence.

However, Koll adds that the Indian Ocean Dipole is not yet in place as a counteracting factor, “Even if it develops later, its influence may become more relevant only toward the latter part of the southwest monsoon season.”

Adding that El Niño could amplify erratic weather, Koll states, “India must prepare for both dry and wet extremes at the same time. Weak monsoon winds can increase drought, crop stress, water scarcity, and heat stress. At the same time, warmer oceans can feed intense rainfall, floods, landslides, and urban flooding when the monsoon winds become active.”

For major cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune, the concern extends beyond seasonal rainfall totals. Water supply systems increasingly depend on stressed groundwater reserves and reservoirs, and adding intense, erratic rainfall and heatwaves to the mix could add pressure on already vulnerable infrastructure.

Preparing for uncertainty

As updates roll in, Cortes reinforces the WMO’s stance, “The focus should be on preparedness, early warnings and risk-informed decision-making, rather than on dramatic labels.”

With human-induced climate change, this El Niño is developing in an already much warmer world, exacerbating erratic events and amplifying risk. Koll urges preparedness for intensifying extreme events, “El Niño is a warning signal, predicted early enough for us to take precautions to secure water, food, and livelihoods.”

Recent events have offered a reminder of that vulnerability. During March-April 2026, parts of Karnataka witnessed unusually intense pre-monsoon hailstorms driven by extreme heat and atmospheric conditions, resulting in significant damage to mango crops.

“Physical impact from large hailstones caused irreversible damage to the fruits, that only showed up after ripening. This impact was far more devastating than pest damage,” shares the Bangalore-based owner of a mango farm in Gauribidanur, Karnataka, who wishes to remain anonymous for job-related reasons. “Our yield dropped to 3.3 tons, where we’d expected 5.1-5.3 tons this year.”

The El Niño picture will become clearer in the coming months’ forecasts. Until then, climate agencies and experts are repeatedly urging caution and preparedness as there is a very real possibility of a difficult year ahead.