From rallies to booth management, I-PAC is critical for Trinamool. Will its exit hurt the party?

“Why fuss over I-PAC like this?” an irritated Shashi Panja asked reporters at a Trinamool Congress news conference in Kolkata on Sunday when they inquired about a report in the Deccan Herald that the political consultancy had paused operations in West Bengal. Her reaction summed up her party’s confused position on the issue.

On the one hand, the cabinet minister from Bengal dismissed the report as “baseless”. On the other, she criticised the Bharatiya Janata Party for purportedly using Central investigative agencies to go after the Trinamool’s election consultant.

Panja claimed that her party was in close contact with the Indian Political Action Committee and that the consultancy was ensuring that the Trinamool’s campaign was “in full swing”.

However, according to an email that I-PAC’s human resources department sent out in the early hours of Sunday, all the company’s employees in West Bengal were asked to go on leave for 20 days with immediate effect. Scroll has seen this email, which says that the decision had been taken because of “certain legal issues”.

I-PAC has been on the radar of the Enforcement Directorate since January. The Central investigative agency has, in recent weeks, raided its offices in several cities and summoned its three directors for questioning. On April 14, it even arrested one of them, Vinesh Chandel, on allegations of money laundering.

The news of I-PAC deciding to retreat from the campaign came with just 10 days left for elections to conclude in West Bengal. The consultancy firm started by campaign strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor over a decade ago has acquired a reputation for delivering election victories. Could its absence prove to be a big setback for the Trinamool, which has for years relied on I-PAC to manage its affairs?

I-PAC employees, Trinamool insiders and other consultants said that the company usually plays a critical role in the final stages of campaigning and particularly on voting day. As a consequence, most of them expect I-PAC’s exit from the elections to hurt the party.

But, they added, the impact would be limited, given that both the Trinamool and I-PAC had time to prepare contingency plans for a situation like this after the January raids.

Advisors to event managers

Though the consultancy first came under the scanner three months ago, the pressure was ratcheted up last week after the Enforcement Directorate arrested one of its directors. After this happened, a mid-level employee had told Scroll that the company’s other directors were spending most of their time in Delhi, while middle management ran the show in Kolkata.

“They are smart people, but if you throw a spanner in the works, they don’t know what to do,” this person said, requesting anonymity. “This will obviously affect the Trinamool. It is already affecting [them].”

At the news conference on Sunday, Trinamool leaders sought to understate the role that I-PAC plays for the party, characterising it as a “political advisor”. But the company’s former employees say it offers more than advice.

“They do less advising and play the role of event managers,” said a consultant who spent a year working at the company before switching jobs. “In the final stages of campaigning, pamphlets have to be distributed, flags have to be put up, walls have to be painted and bike rallies have to be taken out. All of this is included in the I-PAC model.”

This person, requesting anonymity, explained that as voting day nears, the top leadership of political parties are wary of relying solely on local workers to organise campaign events.

“Politicians who did not get the ticket are unhappy and won’t organise rallies well,” this person added. Even those contesting an election, this person pointed out, sometimes view it as an opportunity to make a quick buck by embezzling party funds. This is where consultants come in, promising to hold events cheaply and efficiently.

“Someone like Mamata [Banerjee] or Abhishek [Banerjee] trusts I-PAC more than their own workers or party leaders,” this person claimed, referring to the Trinamool’s top leaders. “This is the reason for the proximity between them and consultants. Why else did Mamata come forward to protect Pratik?”

This was a reference to the Enforcement Directorate raid on the Kolkata home of Pratik Jain, one of I-PAC’s founders, in January. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had made headlines at the time by dramatically interrupting the search midway and walking away with what she said were party documents.

Another former employee who worked on the Trinamool campaign during the 2021 Assembly elections said that the impact of I-PAC’s absence went beyond events. This person contended that the party needed I-PAC’s ground teams on voting day.

According to this person, these ground teams spent months studying constituencies to identify booths they consider to be strong, weak or could swing for the party. Then, on the day of polling, they monitor the turnout trends across booths from the candidate’s war room.

“If voting is slow in favourable booths, they have ways to mobilise voters,” this person explained. “Likewise, sometimes they tell the candidate, ‘See, this is a BJP booth. A lot of votes are being cast there.’ In my experience, this can make a difference of about 2%-5% on the vote share.”

I-PAC still around?

If I-PAC’s exit indeed reduces the gap between the vote shares of the Trinamool and the BJP, it could theoretically swing the election. The gap between the two leading contenders for power in West Bengal shrank from 10 percentage points in the 2021 Assembly polls to seven in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Given that the Trinamool alleges that the special intensive revision carried out by the Election Commission has targeted its voters, this gap could have narrowed even further in the run up to voting.

However, most consultants and Trinamool politicians that Scroll spoke to said that there was little need to discuss the impact of I-PAC’s exit since many of its ground teams were still at work in the campaign.

“They will not pull out all their ground resources because it is just a matter of a few days,” said the former employee quoted above, pointing out that voting in Bengal is scheduled to conclude on April 29. “Those on the ground will try to finish their work quietly.”

At least three Trinamool insiders also claimed that the ground teams were still working with the war rooms of candidates. Scroll was unable to independently confirm this. Neither I-PAC’s media team nor its leadership team responded to calls and messages.

The chief minister’s own comments on this issue, too, have given legs to the theory that I-PAC staffers on the ground are working for her party. “If you [BJP] scare those who work for us, we will absorb them in our party and give them jobs,” she announced at a rally on Sunday.

One former I-PAC employee who worked at the company till last year suggested that it must have anticipated this situation and put plans in place after the January raids.

“Both the party and the company had time to prepare for something like this,” they said, adding that the arrest of director Vinesh Chandel did not come out of the blue. “After the first raid in January, they must have prepared a plan.”

Shutting down the head office in Kolkata was not the same as stopping work altogether, this person underlined. In their assessment, the impact of I-PAC’s so-called pause in operations would be “marginal”, if at all.

In the final analysis, the effect of the scrutiny on the consultancy and its eventual retreat from the campaign might turn out to be psychological. One of the former employees quoted earlier contended that this is what the BJP at the Centre wanted.

“They want to tell undecided voters that BJP has become strong enough to enter Trinamool’s home turf and hit it where it hurts,” this person surmised. “That was the primary intent behind all of this. It is a psychological game.”