How Modi government aims to use women’s representation to expand Lok Sabha using 2011 census numbers

For weeks, the Modi government has claimed that it was convening a special session of Parliament to speedily implement the Women’s Reservation Act. However, on Tuesday, two days before the session is to begin, draft bills shared with MPs reveal the government wants to make deeply consequential changes to the composition of the Lok Sabha that go far beyond increasing political representation for women.

The bills, if passed by Parliament, could lead to political constituencies being redrawn on the basis of population data from the 2011 census. This could significantly reduce representation for the southern states since the current representation is based on the 1971 census. Since then, birthrates in southern states have been lower than in northern ones.

The special session is being held when campaigning for Assembly elections is underway in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, both of which account for a significant number of Opposition MPs. The special session will draw them away from the battle ground.

Opposition parties have said that population-based delimitation would give an undue advantage to northern and central states in the Lok Sabha, as the proportion of seats in the North would be higher. They also note that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has greater support in northern states than in the South.

The three legislations are the 2026 Delimitation Bill, the 2026 Constitution 131st Amendment Bill and the 2026 Union Territories Laws Amendment Bill.

Increasing the strength of the Lok Sabha

The Constitution 131st Amendment Bill builds on the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act, which reserved 33% of seats for women. It proposes to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha to 850 from 543. Of these, 815 seats will be from the states and 35 from the Union Territories. While 543 MPs are currently elected to the House, the Constitution formally caps the strength of the Lok Sabha at 550.

More consequentially, this bill alters the basis for the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act, which reserves one-third of the seats in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies for women. These reservations were to take effect only after a census was conducted. The census, which began on April 1, is expected to conclude in 2027.

The Constitution 131st Amendment Bill proposes to amend Article 82 of the Constitution to remove the provision that froze the number of Lok Sabha seats based on the 1971 census. The 84th Amendment Act of 2001 then froze constituency boundaries until the first census after 2026.

The process of fixing the boundaries of electoral constituencies is called delimitation. Article 82 of the Constitution states that after every census is completed, the allocation of Lok Sabha seats to each state must be adjusted based on changes in its population.

Based on 2011 census

The delimitation bill to be introduced in the special session is silent about which census will be used as the basis for the delimitation exercise. However, the government, in a statement explaining the objectives of the Constitutional Amendment Bill, said that delimitation will be based on the “latest published census”.

“…the objective of the proposed bill is to operationalise one-third reservation for women…through delimitation exercise to be undertaken on the basis of the population figures of the latest published census,” says point six in the statement of objectives.

That would mean the enumeration exercise that took place in 2011.

Controlled by Parliament

For now, the decision on which census is to be used as the basis for delimitation depends on an amendment to the Constitution, This requires a two-thirds majority of votes in Parliament.

However, the Constitution 131st Amendment Bill proposes to allow Parliament, based on simple majority, to decide which census will serve as the basis of delimitation.

This means that Parliament will be able to carry out delimitation without requiring another constitutional amendment.

Uncertainty about share of representation

A delimitation exercise based on the 2011 census is expected to change the proportion of seats in the Lok Sabha. It could reduce representation of the southern states.

The southern states, which have a slower population growth rate, have repeatedly expressed concern that population-based delimitation could give an undue advantage to northern and central states in the Lok Sabha, as the proportion of seats in the North would be higher.

Psephologist and political activist Yogendra Yadav said in a tweet on Tuesday that there was nothing in this bill to ensure that the current proportion of seats in each state would be maintained.

Women’s seats on rotation basis

According to the proposed amendment of the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act, constituencies in the Lok Sabha and the state Assemblies will be reserved for women on rotational basis after each round of delimitation.

The amendments to the law will operationalise the 33% quota for women in the Lok Sabha and Assemblies under the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act, the government said in a statement explaining the objectives of the bill.

The 2023 Women’s Reservation Act reserves one-third of the seats in the Lok Sabha and Assemblies for women. However, the reservations were to be effective only after a census is conducted.

All the proposed changes will take effect only after the current Lok Sabha and the state Assemblies are dissolved at the end of their tenures.