The mild phrasing in the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast that this summer will be “hotter-than-normal” with an “above-normal number of heatwave days” belies the grave consequences of the coming summer heat.
The forecast predicts heatwaves lasting 10-14 days longer in many parts of the country than the usual eight to 15 days per summer season.
With Assembly elections scheduled in several states next month, the forecast signals a profound risk to India’s democratic life besides the obvious tangible threats to food, water, power and public health.
To see why, it is worth revisiting India’s 2024 general election – which was also held during summer in which India endured brutal heat. During the sixth phase on May 25, 2024, daytime temperatures in several poll-bound regions breached 45 degrees celsius.
Candidates, election officials, campaign managers, and field reporters fainted or fell sick. The substantial 1.6% drop in voter turnout in 2024 from the 2019 polls has been attributed, in part, to the intense summer heat.
This was not entirely unforeseen since the Meteorological Department had already forecast double the number of heatwave days that summer. In fact, the heat had an impact on the elections despite some mitigative measures being undertaken such as political parties shifting their campaign efforts to early mornings or late evenings, and provisions made for water and shade at polling stations.
As extreme temperatures become more common, India must consider not just how the changing climate may affect tangibles such as health, but even intangibles such as democratic participation.
A peer-reviewed climate change assessment for India that my colleagues and I published recently in PLOS Climate offers critical insights.
The report shows that the hottest days of the year across large swathes of the country are now about 1.5 degrees celsius-2 degrees celsius warmer than in the 1950s. Looking ahead, we project an additional 1.2 degrees celsius-1.3 degrees celsius warming in just the next two or three decades.
Yet, this projection carries a troubling caveat. These projections assume a continued high aerosol burden over India – in other words, persistent air pollution. Ironically, air pollution has exerted a substantial cooling effect on Earth’s surface, masking about 25% of the warming that would otherwise have occurred from rising greenhouse gases.
This “aerosol-masking” is one of the reasons for India’s muted warming compared to warming over land in other parts of the world.
It makes for a dilemma. As India pursues strategies to ensure cleaner air, a fundamental requirement for improved public health and quality of life, warming may inadvertently be accelerated.
When China reduced its aerosol emissions through pollution controls, scientistsobserved faster warming rates in response. If India successfully cleans its air, this could mean even greater warming over the country than current projections.
What is worse is that the impact of rising heat is not felt evenly. Those unable to afford air-conditioned comfort – often residents of informal settlements, people with medical vulnerabilities and the elderly – bear the heaviest burden of rising temperatures.
In the context of elections, the problem in 2024 was not merely the decline in the turnout but that the groups most vulnerable to extreme heat would have been disproportionately affected.
This amounts to a form of inequitable climate disenfranchisement.
The implications for democratic participation are profound. If heat already suppressed voter turnout in 2024, what happens when such extreme conditions become the norm – when the heatwave season expands to two months in summer as our projections suggest?
If extreme climate conditions systematically edge out specific groups from the democratic process, India risks a pernicious feedback loop: those least represented are also those most vulnerable to climate impacts, and their diminished political voice makes it harder to demand the very climate action they need most.
Measuring development only in economic terms rings hollow if environmental conditions undermine the foundations of democratic participation. As India charts its path forward, climate adaptation must be central to how infrastructure, electoral processes and social protections are imagined.
After the 2024 election, the chief election commissioner admitted that India should have completed the elections at least a month earlier. His successors would do well to heed that message as India heads into the Assembly elections this year.
Chirag Dhara is a climate and sustainability scientist at Krea University.
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