Bangladesh election: Big win for BNP, Jamaat emerges as a formidable opposition

Now that the February 12 elections are done and dusted, there are numerous lenses through which to decipher what the results signal for the voters.

One defining takeaway is the sheer scale of the victory: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its alliance secured a supermajority – a two-thirds stake in parliament.

Simultaneously, Jamaat-e-Islami and its partners have emerged as a formidable opposition, ensuring a significant sway over future parliamentary debates.

A victory with no losers

Practically speaking, there are no losers in this cycle. After three consecutive sham elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024, voters finally had the opportunity to make their voices heard through a fair and peaceful process.

For the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the victory is so decisive that the party can invoke Article 142 to bring amendments to the Constitution.

For Jamaat, alongside its allies – including the National Citizen Party, a party born out of the July Revolution – it secured a quarter of the 300 seats. This makes them a massive political force in the opposition.

The historical context of the ‘two-thirds’ verdict

Bangladesh’s 55-year electoral history is no stranger to the two-thirds majority. Statistically, in 10 out of the 13 national elections held in this country, the winner has walked away with such a mandate.

Simple majorities have actually been the exception, occurring only in 1986, 1991, and June 1996. While history has repeated itself in terms of the numbers, it would be an understatement to treat this result as business as usual.

Why this election is different

The 13th parliamentary election bears extra significance for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party for several reasons: This was one of the best-administered, most peaceful, and fairest polls in the nation’s history.

It was held while the memory of the July Revolution remained fresh, and with the Awami League effectively absent from the scene– largely due to its own actions.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party successfully tapped into public sentiment regarding the injustices it suffered over the last two decades, including the imprisonment of thousands of activists.

This was also the time when Bangladesh Nationalist Party delinked its past partner-in-power and longtime ally – Jamaat – to the extent that the latter became its only formidable contender for power in 2026 elections.

The rise of Jamaat

There is a misconstrued view in some political circles that Jamaat fared poorly. On the contrary, they are a major gainer. A party that historically never won more than 18 seats has now quadrupled its presence.

Jamaat has shown a prudent capacity for survival and adaptation. Over the decades, it has befriended fierce rivals to gain dividends: Joining the Awami League during the 1994-1996 protests, sharing power with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in 2001, and now absorbing the student-led National Citizen Party.

With the Awami League unlikely to make a quick comeback, Jamaat is now in the perfect position to breathe down the neck of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party for the next five years.

Delivering on promises

The challenge for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the leadership of the born-again Tarique Rahman is simple: They must deliver.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party must eschew the bitter tradition of “winner-takes-all” politics. To maintain its mandate, it must listen to the opposition when they speak with logic and ensure essential space for dissent and uphold the values of free speech and press freedom.

The party knows better than anyone the pain of a (pseudo) democracy that refuses to listen. If the Bangladesh Nationalist Party fails to carry the weight of this hard-earned majority, Jamaat and other rightist forces will be waiting in the wings for the next opportunity.

Reaz Ahmad is Editor, Dhaka Tribune.

This article was first published on Dhaka Tribune.