After Bihar, is the INDIA bloc dead? Yes and no, say Opposition parties

Days after the Bihar Assembly elections, leaders from the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress – the two biggest Opposition parties in the state – began blaming each other for their sizeable defeat. Their Mahagathbandhan alliance managed to win only 35 of Bihar’s 243 seats, prompting some to suggest that it may no longer be viable for them to contest elections together in the future.

The election was swept by the National Democratic Alliance consisting of the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

On the national stage, the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are members of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – and the Bihar result created ripples in this broad anti-Bharatiya Janata Party coalition too.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the INDIA bloc had played a key role in denying the BJP a simple majority. The BJP was able to return to power only with the support of its National Democratic Alliance partners.

The INDIA alliance has stayed together since then and even won elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir.

But after Bihar, the media was rife with speculation that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, an INDIA member, was going to switch sides and join hands with the BJP. The party, which successfully led the Opposition in last year’s Jharkhand elections, was upset that its allies had not given it any seats to contest in Bihar.

In an interview with Hindustan Times on December 7, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah sympathised with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. The prominent INDIA bloc leader admitted that the alliance had failed to fight unitedly in several states. Asked if this meant that the coalition was dead, Abdullah responded: “We are sort of on life support.”

Abdullah is not alone. Several members of the alliance shared similar views when Scroll contacted them. Few were optimistic about the bloc sticking together in all the state elections expected to be held next year. Most blamed Congress, the largest Opposition party, for this situation.

The only unifying factor for INDIA parties, these leaders noted, is their antipathy towards the BJP. That is what brings them on one page to raise issues such as “vote chori”, the catch-all term used by the Congress and its allies to refer to the BJP’s alleged electoral malpractices.

Collective action, coordination, cynicism

But this cooperation is limited to protests in Parliament and social media campaigns. It does not necessarily translate into collective action on the ground. For example, no other INDIA party joined the Congress rally against so-called vote chori, or vote theft, in Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan on December 14. It is unclear if the Congress had even invited their leaders to the event.

“So far, the alliance has been basically limited to some parliamentary coordination and electoral seat-sharing,” complained Dipankar Bhattacharya of the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation. “It has to go beyond this. It has to be more programmatic and more organically connected with all the ongoing struggles.”

He suggested that INDIA parties should hold joint protests against the four new labour codes introduced by the Modi government in November. Bhattacharya believes this could provide the alliance an impetus because it was the massive farmers’ protests of 2020 that gave a fillip to Opposition politics in the country before.

However, others are more cynical about the road ahead.

Supriyo Bhattacharya, general secretary of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, anticipated that the INDIA bloc is likely to remain disunited till the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, after which it would regroup to chart its way forward. The reason for this, he contended, is that most parties were choosing to prioritise their own interests over taking partners along.

“We got to see in Bihar that many of the parties which are leading the fight against the BJP are unfortunately lacking in coordination among themselves,” he said. “Alliances are all about balance. We tried to strike that balance in Jharkhand and expected our allies to do the same elsewhere. The Bihar result shows that they were unable to do so.”

Another place where INDIA parties are running in different directions is Maharashtra, which will hold elections to its municipal corporations in January. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a spokesperson from one alliance member admitted that the Maha Vikas Aghadi, as the Opposition formation is known in the state, may not survive in its current form.

While all parties in the alliance had fared poorly in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Congress party’s predicament was different from that of others, this leader argued. Allies may not stay with it because the Congress does not have enough workers to be valuable in local politics. In addition, for the sake of its own future in the state, the party may also prefer to go alone.

“It depends on whether you are rebuilding a party or keeping it alive,” this person added. “Regeneration and survival are not mutually compatible. Other INDIA parties are in survival mode. But the Congress has to rebuild itself from the bottom up.”

Those in the Congress know this well. Anshul Avijit, a national spokesperson of the Congress, was candid about the challenge his party faces. In fact, he blamed coalition politics for “constricting” his party’s growth.

“If we do not fight for seats, if there are districts where we do not have a candidate, what organisation will we be left with?” he asked. “People simply leave the party. Over the years, Congress had to pay this price for coalition politics.”

That is why the party insisted on contesting 61 seats in Bihar, which led to so-called friendly fights that ultimately damaged the alliance, Avijit explained.

In Delhi, too, Congress contested Assembly polls alone earlier this year and seemingly hurt the Aam Aadmi Party, which was then its ally at the national level. The grand old party’s conduct offended Aam Aadmi so much that it walked out of the INDIA bloc soon after.

Ideological allies

However, this does not mean that the INDIA bloc has fallen apart everywhere. In parts of the country such as Tamil Nadu, it remains intact. Saravanan Annadurai of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which heads the ruling coalition in the state, said this was because of the ideological alignment among INDIA parties.

“We oppose the divisive ideology of the BJP,” the party spokesperson said. “Electoral setbacks apart, there is a strong bond that ties all of us. Nobody is going to say tomorrow that BJP is a saint and ally with them.”

Issues like “vote chori” are also bringing these parties closer, he said. Anshul Avijit, the Congress leader, agreed that opposition parties purportedly shortchanged by the BJP’s alleged malpractices will continue to stick together in the coalition.

“There is a common ground and an ideological enemy,” he added. “Everyone is on the same page regarding that. In the fine and minute details, there may be disagreements. These will be hashed out in due course.”

Allies in one state, rivals in another

When it comes to Opposition unity, state elections to be held next year in Assam, West Bengal, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to be a mixed bag. INDIA parties are expected to contest together only in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu.

In Kerala, the Congress party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) will once again lock horns in a bitter battle as they lead their respective state-level coalitions into the polls. In West Bengal, though, they might join hands.

Without naming the Congress, Mohammed Salim, state secretary of the CPI(M), told Scroll that he was open to allying with other “secular and democratic” parties. But, he added, that they must ask for seats according to their strength in the state.

“Strength should be displayed through movements, mass mobilisation and organisation,” he pointed out. “After the Bihar election, I think they [Congress] will be realistic.”

But even if the Congress and CPI(M) come together, they will still have to contend with the Trinamool Congress, which is the ruling party in West Bengal. While the Trinamool Congress is a member of the INDIA bloc, it did not contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections or the 2021 Assembly elections before that with any other INDIA ally.

Party leaders that Scroll spoke to dismissed the possibility of an alliance with the Congress ahead of the next election in the state. The Trinamool Congress is also likely to field candidates in some constituencies in Assam, where the contest is otherwise a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress.

Samajwadi Party National Secretary Abhishek Mishra acknowledged that the INDIA bloc must avoid such contests. But he sided with the Trinamool in this instance, blaming the Congress for refusing to follow the lead of its allies in regions where they are the dominant players.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party emerged as the largest player. The result came as a boost for the party, which last ruled the state in 2017 and is now gearing up for the 2027 Assembly elections.

What would be the best tactic for the INDIA coalition to win crucial states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh? Mishra, the Samajwadi Party spokesperson, believes that the Congress should cede leadership to regional parties in state elections just like they had accepted its national role.

“The captain for T20s will have to be different from the captain in Test matches,” Mishra said, drawing an analogy to cricket’s different formats. “In state elections, Congress will have to play a supporting role to regional players.”