Why the recent state election results are not a referendum on Modi’s popularity

The demoralising defeat of the opposition Congress-led INDIA (India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc in the recently concluded assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will change the power equations at the national level.

In the aftermath of the recent verdict, the ruling Bharatiya Janata party is likely to become even more aggressive. Its overconfidence may make its handling of the Opposition more cavalier.

The composition of the Upper House, Rajya Sabha, will change due to the BJP’s big win in Maharashtra. The party’s dependence on its allies in the Upper House for passing crucial legislation will decrease as this happens.

The psychological impact of the victory on the BJP’s alliance partners in the Lower House, the Lok Sabha, will be no less consequential. The Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam party are now likely to become relatively docile and more cooperative.

The repercussions of the state elections will also be felt in the INDIA bloc. The relative bargaining power of the Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) will be diminished. The discordant voices in the INDIA bloc will become louder. The first sign of it is Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress making a bid for the leadership of the alliance.

These results are also likely to be perceived as a reversal of the political trends set in motion by the June 24 general election. Those results had left the BJP short of an absolute majority in parliament forcing it to rely on unpredictable allies. However, now it seems that Modi has salvaged the loss in terms of public perceptions.

The defeat in Haryana and Maharashtra has robbed the Opposition of the psychological victory registered over the BJP in the parliament elections. The Congress’s allies, the National Conference and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha have formed the government in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand, respectively. But these wins are not sufficient to soothe the electoral bruises suffered in Haryana and Maharashtra.

There are lessons in the state election results for both the Opposition and the ruling alliances.

The Opposition parties have to recognise that a one-size-fits-all electoral strategy does not work across India.

The biggest casualty in this electoral debacle is the Congress party, which sees itself as the fulcrum of Opposition unity within the INDIA bloc. The national narrative crafted by the Congress, including concerns about the state of democracy, the Constitution, and the need for a caste census, may not resonate equally across the country.

Each state has its own unique caste and class dynamics, which no political party can afford to overlook, as the Congress did in the recent state elections. The party must align its national narrative with local concerns in each state.

Moreover, with the weakening of the Congress central leadership’s authority, there is an urgent need to reset its relationship with the regional units of the party.

In some states, the party’s central leadership rode roughshod over its regional leaders. In others, it gave a free run to the regional leaders whose factional rivalries ruined its electoral prospects.

The Congress is also faced with a dilemma – prioritising its goals of revival vs. survival. If it prioritises revival, then it needs to focus on organisational revamp and reconnect with the people through mass mobilisation. That means temporarily ignoring electoral losses and victories.

However, if survival is the priority, then its big brotherly attitude towards its regional allies needs to change as without their support, it cannot survive.

The results of this election also carry a clear message for the BJP.

While the party has triumphed in the key states of Maharashtra and Haryana, its vote share has not improved significantly compared to the June parliamentary elections.

The BJP’s stronger performance in some of these states can be attributed to the active involvement of its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which has a large grassroots volunteer base of motivated cadres.

In the general election, the RSS had cold-shouldered the BJP. This was partly due to the souring of the relationship between the two on the eve of the election. The BJP president had boastfully declared that the party did not need the help of the RSS any more during elections. The consequences were there for everyone to see – the BJP fell short of parliamentary majority.

However, after several behind-the-scenes parleys before the state assembly elections, the RSS was persuaded to mobilise its cadres in the service of its political progeny in the state elections.

Given the extensive help offered by the RSS in voter mobilisation, the results of the recent state elections cannot, therefore, be seen as a referendum on Modi’s popularity.

The role of the RSS has also settled the issue for the time being that the BJP cannot win an election without its blessing.

More importantly, with unemployment and price rise continuing to soar, the “freebies” being distributed by the incumbent BJP state governments may help the party to win a few more states. However, such fiscal indiscipline will eventually boomerang on the economy, derailing the BJP's narrative of transforming the country into developed India – Viksit Bharat.

At the moment, it may be premature to draw any definitive long-term conclusions about the BJP’s as well as the Opposition’s future prospects. The sudden twists and turns of Indian politics remain unpredictable.

Satish Jha is Associate Professor of Political Science at Aryabhatta College, Delhi University.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.