Around the world, new mobile internet subscribers are plateauing

This article was originally published in Rest of World, which covers technology’s impact outside the West.

When Facebook hit 1 billion users in 2012, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that when it comes to getting another billion users, “The big thing is obviously going to be mobile.” In an interview at the time, Zuckerberg told Bloomberg, “As more phones become smartphones, it’s just this massive opportunity.”

Clearly, he was correct. A recent survey from Global System for Mobile Communications Association Intelligence, or GSMA, the research wing of a UK-based organisation that represents mobile operators around the world, found that 4.6 billion people across the globe are now connected to mobile internet – or roughly 57% of the world’s population.

Now, the rate of new mobile internet subscriber growth is slowing. From 2015 to 2021, the survey consistently found over 200 million coming online through mobile devices around the world each year. But in the last two years, that number has dropped to 160 million.

Rest of World analysis of that data found that a number of developing countries are plateauing in the number of mobile internet subscribers. That suggests that in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Mexico, the easiest populations to get online have already logged on and getting the rest of the population on mobile internet will continue to be a challenge. GSMA collects data by surveying a nationally representative sample of people in each country, and then it correlates the results with similar studies.

Max Cuvellier Giacomelli, the head of the Mobile for Development program at GSMA, said that large swaths of the world’s population still don’t have access to mobile internet primarily because of affordability. Although the cost of data has dropped radically in recent years, the International Telecommunication Union, a UN agency focused on information and communications technologies, notes that huge disparities between regions persist. The cost of data in Africa, for example, is more than twice that of the Americas, the second most expensive region.

“You get this peak of adoption in the beginning because it’s new. The people who can afford it definitely see the value. They knew what the internet was and suddenly you get the internet in your pocket,” he said.

In countries including China, the U.S., and Singapore, a high share of the population is already connected to mobile internet – 80%, 81%, and 93%, respectively. So it’s no surprise that the rate of mobile internet subscriptions has slowed.

But the rate of new users has also slowed in countries including Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Pakistan — where only 37%, 34%, and 24% of the population currently use mobile internet.

Coverage continues to be a challenge, although data suggests that the issue is improving relatively quickly. Just 350 million people across the world, or 4% of the global population, still live in areas that are not covered by a mobile broadband network. According to GSMA, sub-Saharan Africa has the highest coverage gap of any global region. But between 2021 and 2023, mobile coverage in this area expanded from 83% to 87%.

Furthermore, recent advances in satellite technology have the potential to close this coverage gap by bringing mobile internet networks to rural or remote areas that lack mobile infrastructure. SpaceX’s Starlink, for example, is now available in over 100 countries and provides a roaming plan.

Although the data suggests relatively steady rates of adoption over time, it also highlights how unique products can drive a sudden surge in access to mobile internet. In 2016, for example, the Indian telecommunications giant Reliance Jio introduced a welcome package that included 4 gigabytes of free data per day for customers. Between 2015 and 2016, mobile internet subscriptions in India increased by nearly 58%. GSMA’s Giacomelli attributes that surge directly to Reliance Jio’s programme. The telecom continued to offer free mobile internet through early 2017, which continued to attract new subscribers.

“The thing you see in India is just this accelerated growth that would otherwise have been flattened over maybe [a period] twice as long,” Giacomelli said. “But once you’ve captured the population who can afford it, then suddenly you start getting slow growth again.”

But despite the surge in the late 2010s, India’s growth rate for mobile internet subscribers has slowed in the past few years. And as of October 2024, almost half, or 46%, of the population is still not connected to mobile internet.

Even in countries with high rates of mobile internet subscription, there are still stubborn pockets of people with no mobile internet access. In China, for example, 80% of the population has access to mobile internet. But subscription rates among the remaining 280 million people are slowing. Recent advances in satellite technology could bring mobile internet to new users in the country, especially in rural areas. In August, China began launching a satellite internet network, set to rival SpaceX’s Starlink, in an effort to bring everyone online.

Khadija Alam is a data reporting intern at Rest of World.

Russell Brandom was the US tech editor at Rest of World. He is based in New York City.

This article was originally published in Rest of World, which covers technology’s impact outside the West.