The Maharashtra assembly elections slated for November 20 could well be the most complex electoral battles ever witnessed in the country.
Just over a week before polling day, there are no definitive clues about which of the two main alliances in the fray has the edge. For the contesting coalitions, therefore, the question is: given the seemingly intractable complexity, is there anything they could do to move voters to their corner?
Never in the history of Maharashtra, and possibly in any other state, has the electoral arena pulsated with so many political parties, each having its make-or-break potential.
In Maharashtra, there are six main parties in the fray. Battling as the Mahayuti or grand alliance are the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde and the Nationalist Congress Party group led by Ajit Pawar.
They are ranged against the Maha Vikas Aghadi or Grand Front for Development consisting of the Congress, the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Nationalist Congress Party faction led by Sharad Pawar.
Also in the fray are the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.
In addition, there is the newly-formed third front called the Parivartan Mahashakti led by Bachhu Kadu of the Prahaat Janshakti Party. It includes the Swabhimaani Shetkari Sanghatana, a farmers’ front left by Raju Shetti.
As if that wasn’t enough, there are scores of independents and rebels from all parties who failed to get tickets.
It is a nightmare for psephologists – and for the two coalitions.
In the Lok Sabha elections in May, the Maha Vikas Aghadi got the better of Mahayuti in terms of number of seats – 30 against 17. But in terms of vote percentage, the difference was a negligible 1%.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi cannot expect the momentum built during the parliamentary polls to do the trick in the Assembly elections: the size of the constituencies and electorate are much smaller in assembly elections, making races much tighter.
The Mahayuti has the great advantage of being in power to be able to pull the right strings to woo voters – which it is doing to the hilt through the Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme doling out Rs 1,500 per month in cash to lakhs of women.
It has already included some new castes in the Other Backward Classes list, raised the creamy layer income eligibility from Rs 8 lakh per annum to Rs 15 lakh and announced the creation of few more corporations to work for the economic development of some backward castes as well as for Brahmins.
The Mahayuti has also played the Hindutva card with its narrative of “batenge to katenge” – divided we are dead.
How much this will help the Mahayuti to blunt the edge that Maha Vikas Aghadi is perceived to have cannot be quantified – but it will surely help.
Clearly, the Maha Vikas Aghadi needs to rethink its campaign strategy.
It will no doubt deploy regular election tools such as a manifesto promising a brighter future for citizens, field smart campaign speakers and display unwavering unity among the coalition partners. But in terms of resources and manpower mobilisation, it cannot match the Mahayuti.
It needs to do something that could make the voters think beyond the material gains they would make by choosing the options before them. When will a voter swing to the other side after having benefited financially and materially from someone else?
Only when you manage to move them emotionally on cherished principles.
The Opposition managed to do this during the Lok Sabha campaign when it rallied on the issue of saving the spirit of the Constitution from being violated by the BJP’s Hindu Rashtra designs. This, the INDIA bloc maintained, would undermine reservations for marginalised groups in government jobs and educational institutions.
Yet, in Maharashtra, it will not be enough to rock the Mahayuti boat. The BJP has successfully managed to sway a critical mass of voters in the name of Hindutva. This section is not the traditional voter base of the saffron party but new converts who were carried away by the Hindutva tide.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi needs to swing them away from the BJP.
One way it could neutralise the Mahayuti’s Hindutva blitz is by projecting Maharashtra’s tradition of “purogami vichardhara” (progressive thinking) created and nurtured over the past 150 years by the trinity of anti-caste activists Jyotirao Phule, Rajarshi Shahu Maharaj and BR Ambedkar.
All these years, this trinity has stood as an effective counter to the regressive onslaught of Hindutva propagated from Nagpur by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the parent of the BJP and other hardline organisations.
The other effective counter to the regressive forces have been the essentially secular ideals of Shivaji, the 17th century ruler revered in the region.
In sharp contrast to the manner in which the Maratha king is portrayed by Hindutva suppers, Shivaji did not practise a narrow Hindutva: he treated subjects of all religions alike.
He had many Muslims among his top military commanders and had also made strategic alliances with Muslim kings and armies in battles with other Muslim kings.
In fact, he stood in contrast to the strategy suggested by modern-day Hindutva icon VD Savarkar justifying rape as a political tool. Shivaji never took women of the enemy camp captive or used them to pressure the enemy. In this context, there is an inspiring tale of how he honourably returned the daughter-in-law of the Subedar of Kalyan captured in a battle.
Shivaji liberally made donations to mosques and dargahs. In the vocabulary of today’s Hindutva protagonists, it would be referred to as the appeasement of Muslims.
The fact that Brahmanical forces bitterly opposed Shivaji as the rightful king is still remembered.
Shivaji’s legacy has rubbed off on the purogami movement.
There are also other progressive elements for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to draw from. Among those is Maharashtra’s rich Warkari tradition, which draws members of all castes and religions to walk to Pandharpur singing paeans to their beloved deity Vitthal.
In addition, Maharashtra is perhaps the only state with a sant parampara, or lineage of spiritual leaders, drawn from almost all castes, including Dalits.
These elements of Maharashtrian culture presented a strong wall against the Hindutva espoused by the Sangh. It took the Sangh decades of dogged perseverance to crack the barrier.
It will be a sound strategy for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to revive this progressive tradition espoused by Shivaji, Dyaneshwar, Tukaram, Namdeo, Phule, Shahu Maharaj and Ambedkar.
Uddhav Thackeray, who leads one faction of the Shiv Sena, has already been attempting to tap into this strain by redefining Hindutva long espoused by his party as Bahujanwadi – meaning non-elitist.
He has said that his Hindutva is not that of the shendi (the hair-knot sported by Brahmins) and the janeu (the sacred thread worn by Brahmins). “My Hindutva is one followed by Shivaji’s mavlas,” he has explained, referring to the foot soldiers in the king’s army, who were drawn mostly from backward sections of the society and would be identified today as members of the Other Backward Classes.
Such a projection by the Maha Vikas Aghadi will not make observant Hindus feel ashamed for practising their faith, even as it will allow them to be relieved of the fundamentalist character that Hindutva supporters have imbued it with.
It will also signal to OBCs that they have been misled into adopting a regressive Brahminical brand of Hindutva that is predicated on imaging that India’s minority communities are their enemies.
This alternative progressive identity also fits comfortably with the samajik nyay (social justice) struggle of Dalit and OBC voters demanding that the next census should also enumerate voters by caste.
Such a narrative could stem the BJP’s attempts to attract the votes of Other Backward Classes to compensate for the possible loss of Maratha votes. The community has mobilised across the state demanding reservations under the OBC quota.
In an election as filled with uncertainty as in Maharashtra today, appealing to the good conscience of the voter through a sustained campaign that presents an alternative ideological narrative is the best bet for the Maha Vikas Aghadi of keeping its chances of victory alive.
Vivek Deshpande, formerly with The Indian Express, is now a freelance journalist based at Nagpur. He can be reached at vivekd64@gmail.com.
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