Four reasons why Congress does not learn from its electoral failures – and what it can do about it

All the hopes built up by the Lok Sabha elections in June that the end of the end of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s dominance had perhaps begun have been shattered by the assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

In the assembly election results declared on October 8, the National Conference, a constituent of the Opposition INDIA bloc won in Jammu and Kashmir but the performance of the Congress was dismal. The party lost in Haryana too.

No doubt, the Lok Sabha elections showed that the BJP’s decline was real but it did not warrant the euphoric reaction in the anti-BJP camp. First, the BJP’s vote share declined only by a little over 1% – from 37.7% to 36.56%. But this was amplified into the loss of 63 seats (from 303 to 240) seats compared to the previous elections.

But most importantly, the BJP still managed the hattrick of forming the government for the third time under the same person as prime minister, which is what counts in Indian democracy where the winner takes it all. The BJP’s tally was also still higher than any other party. This should have propelled the Opposition, particularly the Congress, to quickly overcome its weakness and brace up for the assembly elections due later in the year.

Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir

Unsure about elections in three states and the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP had them split up through the ever-obliging Election Commission. Jammu and Kashmir was unlikely to vote the BJP to power – and as a Union territory under its agent, the Lieutenant Governor, there was not much meaning left in the elected government. But the stakes in Haryana were high. A loss there could jeopardise the party’s prospects in Maharashtra and Jharkhand while a win would improve its chances.

Winning Haryana was an uphill task for the BJP because strong anti-incumbency sentiment was weighed heavily against it, despite the gimmick of changing the chief minister just before the election. The Congress had a clear advantage. As the campaign began, the BJP was increasingly nervous, reflected by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unsure speeches and an unusually low number of rallies.

The exit polls predicted a fierce competition between the BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party with the Congress potentially winning 44 to 62 seats in the 90-member house, while the BJP was projected to secure 18 to 26 seats. This would have set the stage for the Congress to return to power in Haryana after a decade of BJP rule.

However, the result was a shock for everyone. It was a near-reversal of the projection: the BJP won 48 seats, whereas the Congress got 37. The Congress alleged fraud in the counting of votes and complained to the Election Commission, which predictably dismissed it.

It is not a matter of technicality or legality, but of the transparency of the election process and integrity of the Election Commission which demanded that the poll panel convince the Congress by verifying electronic voting machine votes with Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails. But given the partisan conduct of the Election Commission since 2014, it was too much to expect from it.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference won 42 seats, the Congress won six and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) one. The Congress was supposed to gain more seats in the Jammu region, putting up a fight against the BJP, but it failed miserably, winning just one seat.

Its poor performance can be gauged from the fact that most of its senior leaders, including two working presidents, a former Pradesh Congress president and several ministers, were humbled by their BJP rivals. Even campaigning did not reflect the party’s strategic focus on Jammu and it went about squandering its energy on the Valley, which gave it five seats.

In terms of vote share, too, the BJP has cornered 25.5% followed by the National Conference at 23.4% and Congress with just 11.9%. Thus, there is nothing for the Congress to be happy about even in Jammu and Kashmir. Facing a leadership vacuum, lacklustre campaigning and failure to consolidate Dalit votes in Jammu, the Jammu and Kashmir win can at best be seen as a narrow escape for the Congress.

Failing self, failing the nation

Why is the Congress refusing to learn from its electoral failures over the last 10 years? More than Haryana in 2024, Gujarat in 2017 was ready to reject the BJP – only if the Congress could see it. But in utter disregard of this reality, its leader went on a temple-visiting spree, wearing saffron angvastram, displaying his janeu and other markers to show that he too was a Hindu. It was a most stupid move that unnerved voters who expected the Congress to be an alternative to the BJP and not a me-too Hindutva party.

As expected, the Congress lost the election, albeit increasing its tally by 16 seats – with a total of 77 in the 182-member house. It was fun to watch sycophantic celebrations over this hike, which was, of course, attributed to the prowess of its leader. There was not even a slight lament that it had lost something from its platter. Over the years, Rahul Gandhi has matured, particularly after the Bharat Jodo yatras, but even then he utterly falls short of what is required of him as a leader to defeat the BJP.

The simple arithmetic that the BJP’s vote share peaked at 37.3% during the last three general elections indicates that more than 60% of the voters were either opposed or indifferent to it and thus were potentially looking for an alternative to vote for. The Congress had only to present itself as a credible alternative.

It followed that the Congress should genuinely present an ideological vision opposed to the BJP’s. This vision is nothing but an anti-Hindutva stance, which must manifest into active opposition to the BJP’s anti-Muslim stand, its cow politics and its saffronising overtures in the guise of decolonisation.

Even this may not ensure the defeat of the BJP under the first-past-the-post system, which demands astute strategies. The key stratagem is catalysing Opposition unity against the BJP as the immediate goal. The Congress has a leadership role to play here – not with entitlement or arrogance but with humility and sagacity.

It should accommodate contending interests even at the cost of short-term loss to itself. It needs to create an election machine that is more effective than that of the BJP’s hugely resourced one. It is only with these directional steps that the BJP can be defeated and India as defined in the Preamble of the Constitution be saved. The Congress must realise that persisting in its present manners, it is not only failing itself but also the nation.

Four ideological issues

The party’s lack of a clear and consistent ideological stance has played a significant role in its failures. These are some critical aspects of the Congress’s ideological incoherence and what could be done to address them:

1. Hesitation to unequivocally stand for secularism

The Congress has often been inconsistent in defending secularism, especially when it comes to confronting the BJP’s majoritarian politics. The party claims to uphold secular values but it tends to avoid explicitly challenging the BJP’s narrative on issues such as Hindutva, cow protection and anti-conversion laws. This reluctance may stem from the fear of alienating the Hindu majority, but it disappoints voters looking for an alternative to the BJP. It certainly fails to reassure minorities who are looking for a strong defender of secularism.

What should be done: The Congress must reclaim and articulate a robust secular stance that goes beyond symbolic gestures. It should actively engage in exposing the persecution of minorities, particularly Muslims, and resist communal policies that threaten India’s pluralistic fabric. A clear and courageous articulation of secularism could help the party differentiate itself from the BJP’s majoritarian approach.

2. Addressing the persecution of Muslims

The party has shied away from highlighting issues such as mob lynching, discriminatory laws and the socio-economic marginalisation of Muslims. This approach has made the Congress appear hesitant and complicit in the erosion of minority rights, rather than a staunch advocate for justice.

What should be done: The Congress should openly address anti-Muslim discrimination and offer policy solutions to safeguard minority rights. This means standing against hate speech, communal violence and laws that disproportionately target Muslims, while also emphasising economic and educational upliftment programmes for marginalised communities.

3. Efforts to woo back Dalits and Adivasis:

The Congress has struggled to regain the support of Dalit and Adivasi communities, many of whom have drifted towards the BJP or regional parties. The party’s approach has often been superficial, focusing on token gestures rather than substantive policy reforms addressing caste discrimination, land rights and socio-economic inequality.

What should be done: The Congress should develop a targeted strategy to address the concerns of Dalits and Adivasis, including affirmative action policies, land reforms and legal measures to combat caste-based violence. Building alliances with grassroots Dalit and Adivasi movements and amplifying their voices could strengthen the party’s appeal among these groups.

4. Shedding the arrogance of a national party

There is a lingering perception that the Congress is still functioning with a sense of entitlement as the “natural party of governance”. This attitude can alienate voters who feel the party is out of touch with ground realities and struggles to connect with regional aspirations.

What should be done: The Congress must acknowledge its declining influence and recalibrate its approach to local contexts. Embracing humility, listening to local leaders and focusing on grassroots issues, rather than imposing a top-down agenda, would help the party reconnect with the electorate. It must be candid enough to acknowledge its past mistakes and convince people that it is a pro-people party.

By addressing these ideological and strategic issues, the Congress could present a more coherent and compelling alternative to the BJP, resonating with a broader base of voters who seek genuine representation and progressive policies.

Immediate challenge in Maharashtra

Whether the Congress accepts this counsel or not, it is immediately facing two important assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand scheduled in November.

In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi of which the Congress is a part had a significant psychological advantage over the BJP because of the obnoxious manner in which the saffron conducted itself, splitting two state parties, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, and allying with the breakaway factions to form the Maahyuti alliance. The Maha Vikas Aghadi consists of the Congress, the faction of the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackera and the section of the Nationalist Congress Party headed by Sharad Pawar.

However, the BJP is all out to win Maharashtra and is shamelessly offering all kinds of freebies to woo voters. Modi as well as Union Home Minister Amit Shah have personally focused on Maharashtra. Modi has been making frequent visits to Maharashtra, underlining the party’s determination to regain momentum.

On August 30, Modi inaugurated the Vadhavan Port in Mumbai and attended the first anniversary celebration of the Vishwakarma scheme for artisans in Vidarbha’s Wardha district. He targeted the Congress and the Gandhi family, criticising their leadership and lack of development initiatives. Modi also visited the Jagdamba Mata temple at Poharadevi in Washim district.

On October 8, he inaugurated the Metro line between Bandra-Kurla Complex and Aarey in Mumbai and laid the foundation stones for various development initiatives worth over Rs 32,800 crore, including the Thane Integral Ring Metro Rail Project, Elevated Eastern Freeway Extension, and the Navi Mumbai Airport Influence Notified Area project.

Meanwhile, Shah has been touring Vidarbha and Marathwada, two critical regions for the party, as well as holding extensive meetings with local party leaders and workers to review poll preparations. The party, unidentified sources told The Times Of India, will also reach out to Dalit voters and several events have been planned.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde of the breakaway Sena faction has promised that monetary benefits under the Ladki Bahin scheme for women will be increased to Rs 3,000 from the existing Rs 1,500 per beneficiary per month if the alliance is re-elected.

In October, the state government recommended that the National Cooperative Development Corporation extend loans worth Rs 815 crore to five cooperative sugar factories linked to politicians from the ruling parties in the Mahayuti alliance. Just before the election schedule was announced, the government on October 15 waived the toll for light motor vehicles at entry points to Mumbai. These factors are certainly going to improve the poll prospect of the Mahayuti alliance.

In contrast, the Maha Vikas Agadhi is still bickering, complacent since its feat in the Lok Sabha elections in which it won 30 of the 48 seats while the BJP and its allies got 17. It does not realise that its success is hugely amplified by the first-past-the-post system and in terms of vote share, the difference was not discernible – both at around 43%. The Haryana outcome has indicated that performing well in the Lok Sabha elections in a state is no guarantee of winning assembly elections in that state.

After the Congress’s poor show in Haryana and J&K elections, INDIA bloc parties criticised it for “ignoring allies” and blamed its “arrogance and overconfidence” for the debacle. Political circles saw it as an attempt to pressure the Congress into conceding more seats in the state elections that follow. The allies cautioned the biggest party in the bloc against “complacency” and asked it to be more “accommodative”.

At the time of writing, the Maha Vikas Agadhi partners have been struggling to reach a mutually acceptable seat-sharing deal amid claims and counterclaims by the three parties based on the Lok Sabha results – as of October 27, the allies had declared candidates for 236 of 288 seats.

Issues such as the Maratha agitation, the demand for reservation by Other Backward Classes and discontent among soybean and sugarcane farmers may challenge the Mahayuti but it might still pull off a stunner in Maharashtra. If it happens, it will prove to be a steroid shot for the BJP to resume its fascist run towards a Hindu Rashtra.

One hopes, the Congress wakes up to its historical responsibility.

Anand Teltumbde is a former CEO, Petronet India Limited, professor at IIT Kharagpur and the Goa Institute of Management, writer and civil rights activist.