In new coalition era, BJP faces same problems Congress did a decade ago. What lessons will it learn?

With the Bharatiya Janata Party failing to secure a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, India has entered a new era of coalition politics. As the BJP settles down to governing as head of the National Democratic Alliance, the challenges the party will face mirror the ones faced by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance governments two decades ago.

Though the Congress was similarly transformed from a dominant party into a dependent one, it took a long time to reconcile to its altered status. It went on to pay a significant price for continuing to act like a big brother even though it was no longer one.

Governments that stand on borrowed pillars can survive only through negotiation, accommodation and compromise. This is a messy, slow process. As the Congress set about doing this, it was dubbed “weak” and “indecisive” by the BJP leaders. As the BJP heads a coalition government, will the party do things any differently?

A disconnect

One of the key problems the Congress faced during its era of dominance was its failure to value grassroots structures. The party’s high command often compromised its regional leaders and promoted yes-men. This led to a disconnect between the senior ranks and the base. All this was fine when the Congress was riding high. But as the appeal of the top leadership began to wane and the party started losing ground, the sparsity of effective grassroot leaders and the cadre undermined the party.

The BJP leadership, too, over its decade in dominance, has often resorted to similar tactics, imposing state party chiefs and chief ministers from above. Following its defeat, many insiders pointed out that consultative practices within the party had weakened.

The erosion of the party’s hegemony will result in factions, both at the state and national level, will assert their claim for greater power. This is also what the Congress faced during the coalition era: internal divisions and power struggles weakened the party’s cohesion. The Congress’s intractable internal struggles left it discredited. Will the BJP become more accommodating of discordant voices?

Nepotistic practices

Those are not the only parallels. Though the BJP has intensely attacked the Congress for its nepotistic practices, that criticism rings hollow after being in power for a decade. As a study by IndiaSpend found, the presence of dynastic politicians in the BJP mirrors the Congress’s history of nepotism.

The study analysed the biographies of all 4,807 parliamentarians since India’s first parliament in 1952. It found that over the past two decades, the BJP has had a similar proportion of dynasties among its elected parliamentarians as the Congress.

From 1999, the Congress saw 36 dynastic MPs elected to the Lok Sabha, while the BJP closely followed with 31. In 1999, during the commencement of the 13th Lok Sabha, 8% of Congress MPs were either descendants of former MPs or married to them, slightly ahead of the BJP’s 6%.

The most comparable occurrence of dynastic politicians was observed in 2009, with the Congress having 11% dynastic MPs elected and the BJP having 12%.

The transition from a dominant to a dependent party requires a delicate balance of negotiation and firm leadership. The BJP’s ability to be inclusive will determine its future in India’s political landscape.

Nirmanyu Chouhan and Abhinav Pankaj Borbora are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS.