Why the exodus from Bhutan of young people and qualified workers is a worry for India

Three years ago, Bhutan announced a mandatory programme to train all youth who had turned 18 in sectors such as agriculture, entrepreneurship, construction and technology. But it was only this year, as unemployed youth started to leave the country in large numbers, that the Gyalsung (“service to the nation”) initiative was fully launched.

Since 2022, the tiny Himalayan country of Bhutan has witnessed a surge of citizens leaving for other countries. That year, the country’s only international airport at Paro recorded 16,973 outward migrants – a cause of worry for a country with a population of 7.7 lakh.

Nearly 30% of those leaving the country were below 35 years, reported the government-owned daily Kuensel.

The exodus of Bhutan’s younger people and skilled workers is a concern for India as well. People-to-people relations have been a central aspect of the Indo-Bhutanese relationship. Over the decades, thousands of Bhutanese have come to India to be educated and receive technical training.

The goodwill this has generated has fostered support and sympathy in Bhutan for better relations with Delhi and deterred the influence of China in the Himalayan region. This explains Bhutan’s support for trilateral negotiations on Dokalam. Though this region in Bhutan is claimed by China, Thimphu agrees that New Delhi should have a seat at the table because of the special relationship shared by the neighbours.

The mass migration from Bhutan is likely to challenge India’s advantages in the country.

People-to-people relations

Landlocked between India and Tibet, Bhutan has historically engaged with both cultures and people. But after the Chinese invasion of Tibet in 1950, Bhutan cut itself off from its northern neighbor and embraced isolationism. Eight years later, a visit by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru helped Bhutan foster close ties with its southern neighbour.

India’s development assistance, especially for Project Dantak, which involved building motorable roads in the Himalayan country since the 1960s, created a positive perception of India among the Bhutanese. India also became a key destination of higher education for Bhutanese students, many of whom became prominent figures in the country’s administration.

India has also invested in training several Bhutanese policymakers and private-sector employees.

Economy, unemployment

A key factor driving outward migration is Bhutan’s stagnant economy. Since at least 2005, Bhutan’s younger people have struggled to find work. Besides, the country’s labour-driven, capital-intensive economy, focused on tourism and hydropower, has been unable to absorb educated Bhutanese.

The outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020 exacerbated Bhutan’s economic troubles. The pandemic and accompanying lockdowns pushed youth unemployment to 29% in 2023, according to the World Bank.

Youngsters working in poor conditions with low pay were drawn to countries with fewer visa restrictions. Inflation and fears of job security were push factors. For civil servants, anxiety was triggered by a new performance evaluation system.

For students and working professionals in search of better opportunities, Australia has been an attractive destination. In 12 months until July 2023, nearly 15,000 Bhutanese – almost 2% of the population – got Australian visas.

For decades, India was the preferred destination of higher education for Bhutanese students: the country’s first university opened only in 2003. The majority of them were offered scholarships by India.

But since 2016, there has been a gradual decline in Bhutanese youth coming across the border to study. In 2012-’13, a total of 2,468 Bhutanese students were studying in India. This decreased to 1,827 in 2020-’21. Bhutanese students now prefer countries such as Australia and Canada, attracted by the prospect of settling permanently in these places after they graduate.

Similarly, Bhutan’s bureaucracy – a vital supporter of Indian cooperation – is also seeing high attrition. In 2023, it was reported that 4,800 civil servants resigned from the service, up from 1,500 civil servants the previous year. As of August 2023, the country had nearly 29,200 people involved in civil services.

In January 2022, the attrition rate among civil servants was 6% and among private sector and employees of state-owned enterprises, it was 10%. This drastically increased to 16% by the end of 2023.

A great many of them had been trained in India, From 2011 to 2021, India trained over 2,862 bureaucrats and officials from crucial sectors of Bhutan, including the judiciary, state-owned enterprises, civil services, ministries and Druk Holdings Initiatives – the commercial and investment arm of the government of Bhutan.

Since 1964, India has invested in Bhutan’s capacity building through the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme, which aims to foster technical and economic cooperation with other developing countries. Every year, 325 slots and unlimited online slots are allocated for Bhutan as part of the programme.

India is also expected to offer Rs 100 billion to Bhutan for its 13th five-year plan – a significant increase from its last two plans worth Rs 45 billion. India is also robustly pushing for connectivity and investing in the Gelephu Special Administrative Region with an aim to help Bhutan revive the country’s economy.

India is likely to offer a Rs 15 billion grant as a stimulus package for the Bhutanese government to revive the economy, which the Himalayan country hopes will mitigate its migration problem. India is also increasing scholarships for Bhutanese students to make India an attractive destination again.

As India well knows, it is in its own interest to foster these people-to-people relations and help Bhutan tackle its mass migration and brain drain challenge.

Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is Associate Fellow, Neighbourhood Studies, Observer Research Foundation.