In the clash of the South American giants, Brazil seek redemption, Argentina solace

At last, they were in reach of continental glory – Argentina were playing ten-men Chile in the final of the 2016 Copa America Centenario at the vast MetLife Stadium in New Jersey in June on the banks of the Hudson river and Lionel Messi looked hungry. This was to be Argentina’s moment.

Rivals Brazil had been knocked out in the group phase, teetering on the edge of the abyss as the irrational Carlos Dunga 2.0 years reached a desperate conclusion. Slowly, Brazil’s rich footballing history was becoming a burden after the 7-1 purgatory at Germany’s hands in the 2014 World Cup semi-final. In World Cup qualifying they were in sixth position, outside the slots for Russia 2018.

Steady but measurable progress for Brazil

Fast forward to Brazil taking on Argentina in a 2018 World Cup qualifier on Thursday at Belo Horizonte and the outlook is markedly different. Brazil have not suffered from the Olympic paradox – the inherent and incremental danger of the iconic gold medal promising a new, far-fetched future amid the euphoric hullabaloo. New coach Tite is a realist, who did not consider the Olympic tournament – a glorified Under-23 competition with little importance in the global game – as a watershed moment.

“If there is no discernment in the process, you can’t look at the result and then the process afterwards,” said Tite at his opening press conference. “You look at the process first and then the result. I have no problem in saying that the 7-1 was the fault of all of us involved in football, but I don’t have a mongrel complex either. It’s the past, like the Olympic gold medal…my legacy, in professional terms and the thirteen trophies that I have won, is looking at the process. That counts. I confess that I was at the Maracana [for the Olympic final], looked at the fans and thought: ‘Gosh darn…’ Our work needs improvement.”

His process, building on Dunga’s 4-1-4-1 formation, a lineup Tite employed to win the Brazilian domestic league with Corinthians, has yielded good results. With four consecutive wins, Brazil are top of the qualifying group and play with renewed confidence and swagger.

Argentina (and Lionel Messi’s) roller-coaster ride 

Since that Copa America final though, Argentina has struggled. After scooping his penalty shot high into the New Jersey air, Messi faced a painful déjà vu: another final lost in a shoot-out. The defeat in that once-in-a-life-defining game, the game to end a 23-year drought, spurred him into an emotional and rash decision to retire.

His exit caused a ripple effect with coach Gerardo Martino resigning and Olympic preparations in the doldrums. For a decade, or so, a swat of football coaches – Jose Pekerman, Diego Maradona and Gerardo Martino among others – had failed to address the simple and singular question: where to position Lionel Messi in the national team so as to extract his maximum potential? The diminutive Argentine is a winger, a playmaker, a striker and a false number nine. He shapes the team around him – at least, at FC Barcelona.

New Argentine coach Edgardo Bauza thus faced the ultimate conundrum: what to do without Messi? But the Barcelona star reversed his decision and starred in Bauza’s debut game, a 1-0 win against Uruguay. In the following three qualifiers, without Messi, Argentina drew away to Venezuela and Peru respectively, and succumbed at home to a defeat against Paraguay. There was no Messi to tip the balance. For much of those games, Argentina resembled a squeaky rocking chair, creaking everywhere. In the table, Argentina lie in sixth position.

In Belo Horizonte, they face the continent’s strongest team. Brazil will not enact a special plan to contain Messi, according to Tite. That may allow the Argentine to exploit the limitations of Fernandinho, who will deputise for the injured Casemiro from Real Madrid in Brazil’s midfield. The gritty midfielder is not a genuine holding midfielder and Messi brutally exposed him in Barcelona’s 4-0 home win over Manchester City in the Champions League.

It is a scenario Brazil will want to avoid. Last time Fernandinho played at the Mineirao, Germany overran him and consequently showcased the best of modern football with plenty of ball possession, swift transitions, quick-fire passing, superb movement and lethal counterattacking. The German game made Brazilian football outdated, outmoded and irrelevant.

Thursday's game will be another benchmark for Brazil: have they recovered somewhat from that haunting defeat? Will they be a force to be reckoned with at the next World Cup? For Argentina, a defeat would further complicate the road to Russia.