After a dry run in the summer, South India is banking on the North-East Monsoon

The South-West Monsoon officially ended in the last week of October, but that does not spell the end of the rains in India. The North-East Monsoon, which set in on Sunday after a slight delay, will now bring much needed showers to the country’s eastern coast and southern states.

As Tamil Nadu received scattered rain, the Indian Meteorological Department confirmed the arrival of the monsoon.

The rains had been delayed by a week, causing some anxiety among farmers in coastal Andhra Pradesh, the state’s Rayalaseema region and in Tamil Nadu-Puducherry. They are all banking heavily on a bountiful October-to-December monsoon for their winter crops.

In Tamil Nadu’s Cauvery delta region especially, farmers have lost the entire kuruvai (summer) crop season to the Cauvery water dispute with neighbouring Karnataka, and are now wholly dependent on the rainfall this season for their samba (winter) crop to survive.

Spelling out the importance of the North-East Monsoon to the southern states, the Met department has said Tamil Nadu receives 48% of its annual rainfall this season while the percentage for Kerala and Karnataka is 20%.

Monsoon predictions

In good news for farmers, the weather department has predicted heavy rain across Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from October 30 to November 1. A cyclonic storm, Kyant, forming off the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa is said to have caused the delay in the North-East Monsoon, but it has diminished in intensity over the last few days.

In September, the Met department predicted a normal monsoon this season. S Balachandran, director of the Area Cyclone Warning Centre at the Regional Met department in Chennai, agreed, telling the Indian Express that Tamil Nadu would receive 39-44 cm of rainfall, which is around the normal amount of rainfall received this season.

But some doubts have been cast about these predictions in the run-up to the rains. Earlier in the day on Sunday, the Met department observed the monsoon would commence with marginally less than expected rainfall.

The nature of the North-East Monsoon is such that it occurs in spells of three or four days. In what can be considered its first spell, most districts in Tamil Nadu will receive moderate rainfall, the department added.

Also, a recent report by The New Indian Express said that between October 3 and October 27, Chennai experienced a 96% shortfall in rain, receiving a mere 9.7 mm against the normal 234.7 mm. The rest of Tamil Nadu recorded a shortfall of 69% in October, receiving 50.6 mm of rain against a 164.7 mm.

However, the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, as reported by The Times of India, is more optimistic in its predictions, pointing out that while Chennai and Villipuram districts will see deficits in rainfall, districts such as Coimbatore, Karur, Ramanathapuram, Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri will record above average rainfall.

Ditched by rain

The South-West Monsoon, which runs from July till September, disappointed the southern states, which recorded an overall 12% rain deficit, according to private forecaster Skymet Weather.

The deficit for Kerala, however, was much higher at 34% and the state may face one of its worst droughts, reported Mint.

“As of now, we are staring at a huge drought-like situation next year,” S Sudhevan, director of Kerala's Met department, told Mint. “34% is the biggest deficit in 40 years. Not sure how far the North-East Monsoon in November will be able to mitigate the crisis.”

The following graph by the Met department depicts the less-than-normal rainfall received by the southern peninsula since the third week of August.

Chennai's flood prep

In Tamil Nadu, amid the desperate wait for rain, Chennai has not quite forgotten the deadly floods of December 2015. With the disaster's first anniversary now drawing near, the city corporation is busy taking measures to offset any chance of a repeat. The Hindu reported that the corporation, with funding from the World Bank, has taken up a Rs 1,100-crore project to develop storm water drains across affected areas in the city.

The courts are flooded with public interest litigation from across the state seeking the removal of encroachments on water bodies, one of the major reasons for the flooding last year.

In October-end, the state government, prompted by the Madras High Court, formed a 20-member disaster advisory committee to tackle emergencies such as floods.

Public Works Department Minister K Palaniswami has directed officials to complete flood protection work in Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur and Cuddalore districts by October-end, reported The Times of India.