Will the Samajwadi Party crisis nudge Akhilesh Yadav to consider ties with the Congress?

Is Samajwadi Party in danger of falling apart? Or has Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s position vis-à-vis his rivals in the party actually been strengthened by the chaos that the organisation has been plunged into following the family feud in Lucknow on Monday?

As it turns out, the ugly scuffle that marked the end of the crucial Samajwadi Party meet has lifted Akhilesh Yadav above the ragged state of his party, freeing him from the obligation to bow to the commands of his father, party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

At Monday's meeting, Mulayam Singh Yadav praised his son’s rivals – Shivpal Yadav and Amar Singh – and publicly admonished Akhilesh Yadav. But the overwhelming support that Akhilesh Yadav appeared to enjoy from many at the meeting apparently forced his father to refrain from sacking him.

This implies that Samajwadi Party’s warring leaders – Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Yadav – will now have to settle their battles on their own. Mulayam can no longer exert himself as the party’s ultimate arbiter.

Heated exchanges

At the meeting, Akhilesh and Shivpal Yadav openly traded accusations and then, when Mulayam Singh Yadav asked them to “hug and patch up”, they entered into heated exchange, prompting the Samajwadi Party chief to storm out of the venue.

Although Akhilesh Yadav in his speech on Monday said he would not split the party, leaders close to him assert that the Uttar Pradesh chief minister has already been working on a strategy to contest next year's Assembly elections independently of his uncle and his father. “Forming a new party would be his last resort,” said a party leader close to Akhilesh Yadav. "First he will try to mould the Samajwadi Party by neutralising his father and isolating his uncle."

The differences have been evident since at least August, when Shivpal Yadav threatened to resign from the party in protest against corrupt deals that he claimed senior leaders were involved in. The next day, Mulayam Singh Yadav warned that his brother's protests should be taken on board, or else the party would be risking a split.

While the Samajwadi Party is facing considerable anti-incumbency pressures as the ruling party often does, Akhilesh Yadav’s personal image has remained untainted. In fact, the crisis has sharpened the perception that he is a well-meaning person who wants to work for the development of the state but is not being allowed to function independently by his father and his uncle. It is this factor that has led many in the party to believe that while the old guard would try to ward him off, Akhilesh Yadav would get enough support to override them.

Taking stock

For Akhilesh Yadav, that would be an impressive achievement.

But from the point of view of the politics in Uttar Pradesh, that is not the sole outcome of the crisis in the party. Hours after the showdown in Lucknow, the Congress held a high-level meeting of its Uttar Pradesh leaders to take stock of the situation in the state.

For the first time, Priyanka Gandhi attended the meeting, which also featured key leaders of the poll-bound state such as Sheila Dikshit and Raj Babbar.

According to officials, the party leaders appraised Priyanka Gandhi of the necessity of forming a pre-poll alliance in the state. Though Gandhi did not say anything in response to the suggestion, a leader who was at the meeting confirmed that the party is keenly observing developments in the Samajwadi Party.

Akhilesh Yadav and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi have already shown many signs of agreement. Not only have they said good things about each other, Akhilesh Yadav has gone to the extent of even supporting Rahul Gandhi’s “khoon ki dalali” remarks that the Congress leader made about the Narendra Modi government’s attempts to politicise the surgical strikes conducted by Indian Army on September 29, accusing the prime minister of trading in the blood of soldiers. “I am not sure about Congress but I have good relations with Rahul Gandhi, and if he has used such words [khoon ki dalali] he must have thought thoroughly before saying so,” Akhilesh Yadav had said two weeks ago.

Many in the two parties see them as the ground work for an eventual alliance.