Two months ago, when the Congress launched its election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, it appeared its poll strategist Prashant Kishor was working to a plan.
Kishor succeeded in persuading the grand old party to break with tradition and declare former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit its chief ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh, to reach out to the influential Brahmin community that she belongs to.
Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi undertook a 2,500-km-long Kisan Yatra across the state – which goes to polls early next year – to woo farmers with the promise of a loan waiver. Senior Congress leaders also hit the road as part of the campaign strategy to create a buzz about the party. All this activity managed to energise Congress cadre even though the party organisation in Uttar Pradesh is not in the best of health.
But lately, the party has been showing signs of desperation. Congress strategists are clearly floundering after a triumphant Bharatiya Janata Party upped the ante in the state following the Indian Army’s surgical strikes across the Line of Control in September.
Besides playing the nationalism card, the BJP is also pushing its Hindutva agenda. This was obvious when Prime Minister Narendra Modi chanted “Jai Shri Ram” several times in his Vijayadashami speech at the Aishbagh Ramlila ground in Lucknow last week.
The Centre’s decision to challenge the Muslim practice of triple talaq – through an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court on October 7 – is a well-considered step to stoke communal passions in the run-up to the elections in Uttar Pradesh. At the same time, its move to set up a Ram museum in Ayodhya barely a few months before the elections is another move to consolidate the Hindu vote.
Desperate effort
With the BJP firing on all cylinders, Congress poll strategists have been forced to take a fresh look at the party’s campaign and at how it should proceed. After considerable deliberation, the party has countered the BJP’s game plan of blurring caste divisions by keeping the focus on caste. It has announced that it will introduce a quota for the Most Backward Classes if voted to power in Uttar Pradesh, where it has been in political wilderness for 27 years. Having already made a pitch for the Brahmins and for farmers, the Congress is now making a belated attempt to carve out a fresh constituency for itself.
Making this announcement last week, Congress General Secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad clarified that the proposed quota would be within the existing 27% quota for Other Backward Classes. He explained that several states, including Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, had already introduced such a sub-quota for the Most Backward Classes .
“The Yadavs, the largest caste grouping among the OBCs, are with the Samajwadi Party… so we may as well focus on the other smaller castes that never get the benefit of reservation in education and jobs,” said a former Congress minister from Uttar Pradesh who did not wish to be identified.
With its announcement, the Congress has challenged the BJP’s plan of wooing non-Yadav Other Backward Classes. While the Kurmis have thrown their lot with the BJP in the past and are likely to continue their association with it, smaller backward classes are also on the party's radar. The induction of former Bahujan Samaj Party leader Swami Prasad Maurya was a step in that direction. Other caste leaders are also expected to join the BJP as the elections draw near.
“The BJP is only wooing the non-Yadav OBCs but we have promised the MBCs something concrete,” said a senior Congress office bearer.
The Congress believes that its move will push the BJP into a corner as it may find it difficult to make a similar promise. Party leaders recalled that a social justice committee set up by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh when he was Uttar Pradesh chief minister in 2000 had recommended such a sub-quota for the Most Backward Classes. However, the BJP could not implement it because of stiff resistance to the proposal from the powerful Yadav and Lodh communities, who felt that their share of the pie would shrink if the government introduced such a sub-quota.
Failed attempts
However, not all in the Congress are convinced this strategy will work. Many party leaders believe the timing of the promise is all wrong as the Assembly elections are barely a few months away. “We should have made this announcement at least a year ago,” said another former Congress minister from Uttar Pradesh. “It is too close to the elections now. It looks like a desperate move to retrieve lost ground.”
While admitting the party had no choice but to keep coming up with fresh strategies, Congress insiders pointed out that similar moves in the past had backfired. In the last elections in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, the Congress had made a concerted effort to woo non-Yadav Other Backward Classes by inducting several leaders from these communities into the party, but they had failed to make any impact. The Congress had also promised a 9% quota for backward minorities then but the Muslims had remained steadfast in their loyalty to the Samajwadi Party.
Similarly, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the Manmohan Singh government at the Centre had announced a quota for Jats in the Other Backward Classes category in the hope that it would boost the Congress’ electoral prospects in Jat-dominated areas of states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. Again, the move had failed to get them any Jat votes.
It is obvious that Prashant Kishor will have to come up with a fresh winning formula if the Congress is to remain in the race in Uttar Pradesh.
Limited-time offer: Big stories, small price. Keep independent media alive. Become a Scroll member today!
Our journalism is for everyone. But you can get special privileges by buying an annual Scroll Membership. Sign up today!