Modi's strategic strikes damage another target – Congress hopes of winning the next UP poll

The Congress should probably say good-bye to Uttar Pradesh. All the hard work put in by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi – he is currently on a kisan yatra in the poll-bound state – is unlikely to bear any fruit as the political narrative is all set to change after the surgical strikes undertaken by the Indian army across the Line of Control.

The Bharatiya Janata Party will obviously pull out all stops to keep this issue alive even though the assembly polls are still six months away. The decision to go public with details about Wednesday night’s strikes on terror camps in Pakistan was taken precisely with an eye on the Uttar Pradesh elections. The BJP’s surcharged cadres will now be effectively deployed for a Hindutva consolidation by highlighting how Prime Minister Narendra Modi had proved to be a strong and decisive leader unlike his predecessors.

These fresh developments have hit the Congress campaign, which was focussed on the unfair deal given to farmers by the Modi government, the Centre’s failure to deliver on its electoral promises and the hate agenda of the BJP’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

But these issues are unlikely to resonate with the electorate in Uttar Pradesh now. Having supported the Modi government on its decision to go in for surgical strikes across the LOC, the Congress can hardly criticise the government now or taunt it for its weakness. The Congress party’s poll strategist, Prashant Kishor, will have to necessarily redesign his campaign in the light of the new issues that are expected to dominate the political discourse as electioneering picks up in the coming days.

Struggling for credibility

Even before the change in the poll scenario, the Congress was struggling to establish itself as a credible contender in the crucial election, although the party has put its best foot forward so far. The party is seeking to cash in on the Manmohan Singh government’s decision to waive off farmers’ loans to establish its credibility with the farmers in Uttar Pradesh who are being promised a similar waiver. The perennially-faction-ridden party has also managed to put up a united face by involving all its senior leaders in the ongoing campaign. In an unprecedented step, the Congress has projected Sheila Dikshit as its chief ministerial candidate with an eye on the Brahmin vote.

Ever since they embarked on its campaign, Congress strategists have continually maintained that the party has created a buzz in the state and has become a conversation piece. Though crowds have been flocking to the yatras being undertaken by Rahul Gandhi and other party leaders, the harsh reality is that they have not left any lasting impression on the electorate. Reduced to a fourth position in the state where it has been out of power for 27 years, the Congress is still not seen to be in contention in the forthcoming polls.

“There is no doubt that the yatras have been received very well but the question is whether we can convert this into votes… that appears highly unlikely,” remarked a senior Congress office bearer.

In a state where caste plays a dominant role in elections, the Congress has lost its traditional support base to regional political parties in the post-Mandal era. While the scheduled castes shifted their allegiance to the Bahujan Samaj Party, the party lost the minority vote to the Samajwadi Party after the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the Brahmins gravitated to the BJP when the Ram Mandir issue took centre-stage.

Caste calculations

The Congress made strong pitch for the upper castes in this election following its internal assessment that they are disillusioned with the BJP, which has taken their support for granted and is now wooing the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes. Congress leaders believed that if the Brahmin community placed its trust in their party, it would serve as a base vote that would help in wooing the Muslims who are said to be disenchanted with the Akhilesh Yadav government after the Muzaffarnagar riots.

The party’s calculations could well go for a toss now. The upper castes have been suitably placated after government’s move to crack down on Pakistan and are unlikely to abandon the BJP now. As far as they are concerned, Modi has redeemed himself with this bold and decisive move. If the BJP is seen to be surging ahead, the Muslims could continue their allegiance with the Samajwadi Party or even shift to the Bahujan Samaj Party, depending on which party is best placed to defeat the saffron party.

While the caste dynamics are clearly not in favour of the Congress, it is further handicapped as the party organisation in Uttar Pradesh has weakened considerably over the years as its grassroots workers have virtually disappeared. As a result, the party has been unable to build strong and effective local leaders or attract young voters even though Rahul Gandhi has made a conscious effort to woo them with his periodic visits to universities and colleges. The party has also failed to tap into the people’s anger against the Samajwadi Party government by focusing more sharply on its deficiencies.