Cauvery dispute: The Congress in Karnataka is caught in a political whirlpool

The Supreme Court's decision on Tuesday directing Karnataka to release 6,000 cusecs of Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu every day till September 27 came as another blow to the ruling Congress.

The impact of the order was such that the Karnataka Cabinet decided to defer the release of water and asked the Governor to convene an emergency session of the Assembly on Friday to discuss the matter.

That an elected government has decided to brazenly violate the order of the Supreme Court showed how the issue has become thorn in the flesh of ruling party in Karnataka.

The Cauvery crisis could not have come at a worse time for the Congress. The Assembly elections are scheduled for 2018 and the party has seen a steady decline in its electoral fortunes since it stormed back to power in 2013.

A string of setbacks that the Karnataka government has faced in the Cauvery issue threatens to hurt the Congress in the largest state it rules, with the main Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party accusing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah of inefficiency in dealing with the crisis.

There are enough indications to suggest that the BJP is gearing up to pin the Congress down on the issue. On Wednesday, the BJP decided to stay out of an all-party meeting called by the chief minister. They blamed the Congress for not sticking to an unanimous decision taken at a similar meeting convened earlier this month to not release water to Tamil Nadu.

Union Ministers Ananth Kumar and Nirmala Seetharaman decided to meet Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharati separately in New Delhi to represent Karnataka's case.

Congress's woes

Senior Congress leaders in Karnataka have already begun assessing how much the Cauvery crisis could hurt the party's chances of holding on to power in 2018. A Karnataka Pradesh Congress general secretary, on condition of anonymity, said even in 2013, when the Congress romped back to power by winning 122 of the state’s 224 seats, the Cauvery belt of south Karnataka was where its performance was the weakest.

“In the South, the JD(S) and the BJP managed to win substantial number of seats," he said. If the perception that the government mishandled the Cauvery crisis takes root, the Congress could see major losses in this area, he added.

The Congress’s 2013 win must also be seen in the context of the infighting in the BJP, when former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa moved out and formed his Karnataka Janata Paksha. Yeddyurappa was brought back into the BJP despite the stain of corruption just before the Lok Sabha polls. The controversial leader has a massive following in the Lingayat community, the largest in Karnataka. The community did not take the appointment of Siddaramaiah, who belongs to the Kuruba community, as chief minister lightly.

The Congress has witnessed a series of electoral defeats since 2013. In the Lok Sabha elections in the following year, the party was expected to build on its performance in the Assembly polls in Karnataka. But those expectations came crashing down when the BJP made a stunning comeback and wrested 17 of the state’s 28 Parliamentary seats.

Earlier this year, the ruling party lost two of the three by-polls to Assembly seats that had fallen vacant after the death of incumbents. In the Panchayat polls, the Congress had to form an alliance with the Janata dal (S) to keep the BJP away from controlling Bengaluru.

The infighting in the Congress has not helped the situation. There are reports of serious differences between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Home Minister G Parameshwara, who is also the president of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee. In June, the chief minister sacked 14 of the 34 ministers in his Cabinet. The differences that this shuffle created is still simmering.

High command's indifference

The Congress leaders also said much of the trouble was created by the slow decision making of the party high command in Delhi. They recalled how the BJP and the JD(S) dealt with a serious crisis in 2007, when the final award of the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal was notified.

A former Congress minister said Yeddyurappa was the deputy chief minister at that time. "The JD(S)-BJP alliance government then was accused of mishandling the situation,” he said. “But Yeddyurappa shifted the entire blame on the United Progressive Alliance-led Centre.”

This time, the ruling Congress has not attempted such a strategy even though the BJP has flatly refused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intervention in the matter.

The Congress leader said that Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi was currently touring Uttar Pradesh and the national leadership did not seem to understand the seriousness of the events transpiring in Karnataka. “Uttar Pradesh is important,” the leader said. “But Karnataka is in a crisis and needs strong decisions.”

Countering the BJP

However, leaders in Siddaramaiah's camp said not all was lost as the Supreme Court decision on Tuesday inadvertently provided the Congress with a life jacket.

On Tuesday, when the court ordered Karnataka to release 6,000 cusecs of water to Tamil Nadu every day till September 27, it also directed the formation of the Cauvery Management Board. This tough move has to be implemented by the Union government.

"If the BJP-led Centre goes ahead with the creation of the board, we have something to counter,” a Congress party official said. Such a decision is expected to be highly unpopular among farmers in Karnataka.

The Karnataka government has already challenged the final award of the Cauvery tribunal in the Supreme Court. This includes a challenge of the creation of the Cauvery Management Board as well. "If the BJP wants to politicise this issue, they will burn their own fingers," said the Congress party official.

A BJP official in New Delhi said the party could not be held responsible for the State government defying Supreme Court orders. "The BJP was not part of the all-party meeting which recommended the decision to defer the release of water," the leader said.

However, the Janata Dal (Secular) leader and former Prime Minister H. Deva Gowda put his rivalry with the Congress aside and met Siddaramaiah when the latter called on him at his residence on Wednesday.