The disqualification of 21 AAP MLAs in Delhi is a case of make or break for the Congress

With the Delhi High Court recently setting aside the order of the Arvind Kejriwal government appointing 21 legislators as parliamentary secretaries, the Congress believes that fresh elections to these Delhi Assembly seats can either set the stage for its revival or relegate it to play second fiddle to the Aam Admi Party for an extended period.

The high court ruling has opened up the possibility of disqualification of 21 MLAs by the Election Commission of India which is currently hearing the case. The court order came on the heels of President Pranab Mukherjee’s rejection of the Kejriwal government’s move to amend the Delhi Members of Legislative Assembly (Removal of Disqualification) Act, 1997, exempting the position of Parliamentary Secretary in the Delhi Assembly from the definition of “Office of Profit.”

While the Election Commission has not set any deadline for its final verdict (the next hearing is slated for September 23) , the Congress is pinning its hopes on an early and favourable order which could culminate in the election of 21 assembly seats by this year-end. In fact, the Congress would prefer that these elections are held before next year’s Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Goa assembly polls.

The Congress does not want all these elections to be clubbed as it realises that the Delhi assembly elections will have far-reaching implications not just in Delhi, where the Congress was wiped out both in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, but in subsequent state polls where the AAP is making a serious bid for power. Congress leaders explained that these bypolls could prove to be a “make or break election” for them as they are currently fighting to retain the opposition space in Delhi and other poll-bound states.

After its massive victory in Delhi, the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal is proving to be a big draw in poll-bound Punjab and Goa. A success in these states will predictably encourage the party to spread its wings to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Haryana where the Congress is pitted directly against the Bharatiya Janata Party and it sees a potential for the emergence of a third political force.

Why Delhi is so important

“Before we pit ourselves against the BJP, we have to first challenge the Aam Admi Party so that the Congress is perceived as the main opposition in Delhi, Punjab, Goa and other states ,” a Congress leader maintained. “If we fail to do so, we will be relegated to third position in states where we are locked in a direct fight with the BJP,” he added.

Consequently, the case of the 21 AAP legislators has acquired a far greater significance than other assembly by-elections. “The importance of these elections can hardly be underestimated, if we are unable to stop the AAP in Delhi, it will open the doors for its rise in other states,” remarked a senior Congress leader.

Alternatively, he said, if the Congress can halt the AAP in its stronghold in Delhi, it is bound to have an impact in the coming assembly polls.A loss in Delhi will prove to be a big jolt for Kejriwal, the leader explained. who will be pushed on the back-foot ahead of the Punjab and Goa elections. The Congress, on the other hand, will get an opportunity to hit out at the AAP for its failure to manage its massive electoral mandate.

“Delhi is as important for Kejriwal as Gujarat is for Narendra Modi. Just as Modi cannot afford to lose in this his home state Gujarat, it is imperative that Kejriwal holds on in Delhi where he rode to power with an unprecedented mandate,” said a senior Congress leader.

Given the national implications of these elections, the Congress is working overtime to see that the case of the 21 MLAs is disposed of at the earliest by the Election Commission and fresh elections notified before the Kejriwal government get an opportunity to move the court for a stay on the disqualification of the concerned legislators. “It is critical that the process is not delayed and the election is notified at the earliest, “ said a senior Congress office bearer involved with Delhi affairs.

Although it was wiped out in the 2014 general election and the subsequent assembly polls, the Congress is making a determined bid to recover lost ground in Delhi where it was in power for three consecutive terms. As head of the Delhi Congress Ajay Maken has put his best foot forward over the last year to strengthen the party organisation and to highlight the Kejriwal government’s deficiencies.

The Congress got a shot in the arm earlier this year when it won five of the 13 municipal bypolls which were earlier held by the BJP. Last week, the Congress was further encouraged when the Kejriwal government was pulled up by a Centre-appointed committee for violating Supreme Court guidelines on advertising. The panel, headed by former election commissioner BB Tandon, found that the government advertising failed to maintain political neutrality and glorified political personalities. It directed the Delhi government to recover the expenditure for the advertisements from the AAP.